A New Agenda for Security and Strategy CH 16 Strategy in The Contemporary World

Introduction High Politics – War, Peace, Nuclear Deterrence and Crisis Control, Arms Control, and Alliance Politics

Introduction Low Politics- The Environment, The management of Scarce Resources, and Efforts to Control Population Issues

Which is More Important? During the Cold War high politics dominated the National Security Agenda! Low politics not considered a threat to national security! Despite Major World Issues – Nuclear Fallout -> Partial Ban Treaty 1963 – Oil Shocks of the 1970’s -> Conservation is important!

1980’s Brought Change Why Did This Happen? – Realist suggest with the evaporation of the major concerns with the Cold War, Lesser Issues “appear” to become more important – Neo-Institutionalist would argue the growth of Structures like IGO’s and INGO’s help push global issues like deforestation, AIDS, and the ozone depletion onto security agenda’s – Can any other theories be used to explain this change?

The 21 st Century Saw a return of high politics consuming the majority of the security agenda. This was due to terrorist attacks in New York, London, Madrid, and Bali. Some once considered low politics remained on the Security Agenda, Such as Globalization

The Need for a Conceptual Framework Why should low politics be considered a threat to national security? – The International Peace Research Institution have demonstrated a link between resource scarcity and violence – Rapid population growth or depopulation growth can create resource dilemmas. – Damage to the environment can kill! Ex: The destruction to the Ozone layer can cause cancer, blindness, and even death.

The Use of Military for Low Politics Creates Big Problems Already used in cases of natural disasters, but labeling as security issues would come with cost. Resources are diverted from preparing for war to humanitarian projects. The presence of military can create more problems then it helps. How can the military help with AID’s or reduce green house admissions?

Low Politics… That Make the Agenda!

Population Issues Most of the population growth will occur in the poorest countries – They are already strained to the limits for food, housing, and education. Most of the population growth elsewhere in the world is taking place in urban areas. – Resulting in “Mega Cities” Most of the additional population will be young. – This could create an inability to provide basic services to the populations

More Issues With Population – Population decreases in the west will create difficulties in filling the armed forces – Health care and pension plan demands in the aging population will make it difficult for industrialized nations to afford large defense budgets. – In the west there is a rising aversion to causalities shaping national strategies As birth rates decline people everywhere will be less likely to see their only child sacrificed in a military adventure

Commons Issues A Little of Something Never Hurt Anyone The Tragedy of The Commons Ex: Salmon Fishing Deforestations, Water Depletion, and Carbon Dioxide Levels Tragedy of the Commons occurs because of international failure to protect to environment or its resources These issues can shape war strategy! – Ex: Concerns for disrupting a tight oil market has slowed the response against the Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons

Direct Environmental Damage!

Disease The major concern is for a long overdue outbreak of a deadly strain of influenza Resistant Strains Dormant Disease that may arise due to deforestation.

The Seven Diseases That Remain a Major Concern (HIV/AIDS) – Pandemic proportions are like to spread into India, Russia, and China. Tuberculosis * Malaria* Hepatitis B and C Influenza * – H5N1 (Avian Flu) Diarrhoeal Diseases (results of contaminated food and water) Measles

Five Reasons for the Increase Threat of Infectious Diseases 1. Displaces refugees living in primitive conditions breed and spread diseases 2. Unprotected sex and intravenous drug use 3. Modern technology 4. Land use practices – Destroying – Reforestation (Lyme Disease) 5. International Travel (2 million people a day)

Sensitivities Vs. Vulnerabilities (Avian Flu Vs. SARS)