Enrollment Prediction Techniques Examples from the States Dan Anderson Arizona Board of Regents May 9, 2006

Three Ways to View Needs Traditional enrollment forecasting. Labor market demand for occupations needing postsecondary education. Educational attainment of Arizona’s population relative to other states. 2

Model Outline Basic Cohort Survival Six different Race/Ethnicity groups: White, Non-Hispanic Black, Non-Hispanic Native American, Non-Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic Others, Non-Hispanic Hispanics Use WICHE high school graduate projections along with existing university enrollment data. 3

Model Outline Continued Age existing university population by class retention rates. Graduate seniors, bring freshmen in using college going rates by race/ethnicity. Keep ratio of non-residents and graduate students to undergraduates constant. Adjust assumptions to bound the forecasts (sensitivity analysis). 4

Arizona’s Growth in Population *Projection Source: Arizona Board of Regents January

Summary of Scenario Assumptions Aggressive: Rising college-going rates until 2010, then flat. Moderately Aggressive: Smaller increases in college-going rates until 2010, then flat. Trend: No increase in college-going rates. Off-Campus Slowdown: Trend scenario and slowdown in off-campus education. 6

Update Model Inputs New population figures consistent with 2000 Census used. New WICHE high school graduate projections have been incorporated. Student enrollment patterns for are incorporated from universities. Student continuation rates for are incorporated from universities. Use community college enrollment forecasts from Arizona Community College Association. 7

Actual vs Projected Enrollments Source: Arizona Board of Regents January

University Enrollments Grow Trend Scenario *Trend Scenario assumes no change in college-going rates. Source: Arizona Board of Regents January

University Enrollments Grow Aggressive Scenario *Aggressive Scenario assumes rising college- going rates until 2010, then flat until Source: Arizona Board of Regents January

Projected Enrollment & Capacity Before Any Redesign ASU – 95,000 NAU – 22,000 UofA – 40, Trend Projection – 169,415 Gap – 12, Aggressive Projection – 181,188 Gap – 24,188