1 The Joint Policy Committee July 20, 2012

2 JPC: Bay Area Climate & Energy Resilience Project  “Preparing the Bay Area for a Changing Climate”  June 7 th Workshop  Kresge Foundation Grant

3 Problem We Are Trying to Solve  Reinventing the Adaptation Wheel  Small and mid-sized cities don’t have capacity  Some impacts cross city and county boundaries — Solutions will affect neighbors

4 Problem We Are Trying to Solve  Infrastructure owned by a responsible party — Natural system protection, health more complex  State providing products and services — Can do this more efficiently thru regional collaborations

5 Preparing the Bay Area for a Changing Climate

6 June 7 th Metro  80 participants  18-month roadmap  Bay Area story  Project spotlights

7 Kresge Foundation Proposal  Six-month initial grant to organize collaborative  $75K - $100K  20+ stakeholder meetings: Increase support for adaptation, ID needs, shape plan  Special work plans: Social equity, GHGs + adaptation, research + action  White paper: Governance/decision-making  Interim structure & 12-month action plan

8 Rising Bay Area Sea Level Source: California Climate Indicators, 2010

9 California Average Annual Temperature + 1.7˚F Source: Western Regional Climate Center

10 More California warming at night Sources: NCDC (2007), Gershunov (2008)

11 Bay Area Temp Data Mixed  NBWA 100-year study: + 2.7˚F. Less warming near coast. More warming with increasing distance from ocean.  Lebassi 50-year Bay Area study: “Complex pattern” with cooling in low-elevation areas with marine air penetration and warming in inland areas.  Null vs Bay Area data: San Rafael, SF, Oakland, San Jose cooled slightly. Napa, Santa Rosa, Vacaville warmed slightly.

Longer Time Frames BETTER Source: UCAR for National Science Foundation

13 Bay Area & California Precipitation NO overall trend Source: Western Regional Climate Center

14 Significant Sierra Changes Tahoe: More Rain Less Snow Source: Coats, UC Davis

15 Shrinking Sierra Glaciers Source: Basagic, 2008

Less Runoff April-July Source: CA Dept of Water Resources

Source: Westerling, 2006 Complex Forces at Work: More/Larger Western Wildfires

18 Economic Impacts in Bay Area  In California, climate risk—the damage that will occur if no action is taken—would include tens of billions per year in direct economic costs for public health, agriculture, tourism and other sectors.” Source: Roland-Holst, 2008

19 Economic Impacts in Bay Area  The amount of high-value Northern California land suitable for growing premium wine grapes could be cut in half by 2040 because of global warming, based on the conservative assumption of +2˚F globally. Source: Diffenbaugh, 2011

20 Health Impacts in Bay Area  The 2006 California heat wave, unprecedented in length for Northern California, had a significant and documented affect on emergency rooms visits and hospitalizations. Young children and the elderly were especially at risk (Knowlton, 2011)

21 Ecosystem Impacts in Bay Area  Climate change will impact the future health of San Francisco Bay. This includes droughts altering freshwater flows and water use, and floods and sea level rise altering landscapes and human behavior. Source: State of the Bay, 2011

22 Water Impacts in Bay Area  The Delta is California’s Katrina waiting to happen. -- Sen. Joe Simitian  The Delta, which provides a substantial amount of the Bay Area’s water, including half of Silicon Valley’s water, is threatened by extreme storms, sea level rise, land subsidence, and earthquakes. Source: Integrated Regional Water Management Plan

23 Human Impacts in Bay Area  An individual’s vulnerability to heatwaves, high air pollution days, floods, fires, and other climate- related events is affected by age, income, ethnicity, social isolation, transportation access, living conditions, and other issues. Source: Pacific Institute, 2010

24 Bay Area SLR Projects (examples)  Adapting to Rising Tides  Hayward Shoreline Sea Level Rise Project  South Bay $1 Billion Levee Drive  SFEP Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot Project  Our Coast, Our Future

25 Bay Area Ecosystems Projects (examples)  Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium  North Bay Climate Adaptation Initiative  PRBO Conservation Science Climate Change Program

26 Bay Area Water Projects (examples)  SFPUC Sensitivity of Upper Tuolumne River Flow to Climate Change  Sonoma County Water Agency Carbon Free Water by 2020  Bay Delta Conservation Plan

27 Bay Area Energy Projects (examples)  Bay Area Smart Energy 2020  Bay Area Bridge to Clean Economy  Marin Clean Energy  Regional Renewable Energy Procurement Project  HELiOS Project (Solar Schools)

28 Bay Area Resilience Projects (examples)  Bay Localize Climate and Energy Adaptation — Community Resilience Toolkit  ABAG Regional Disaster Resilience Initiative

29 Lack of technical solutions is generally not the issue in California. The biggest barriers to implementing adaptation plans are institutional, motivational, and economic. (Moser, Ekstrom, 2012)

30 Benefits to JPC Agencies  Help cities and counties  Increase support for sea level rise strategy and other measures  SCS I and II input  Reduce urban heat island impacts (ozone, health, energy)

31 The Joint Policy Committee July 20, 2012