The Great Economic Unraveling of 2008-2010: Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University.

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Presentation transcript:

The Great Economic Unraveling of : Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University Presentation to Chapter 13 Consumer Bankruptcy Seminar Arlington, Texas November 9, 2009

Madoff New York Mag

Delinquent Mortgages by Type of Loan Source: Wall Street Journal

Taking Shelter Source: Wall Street Journal

Metros Differ in Subprime Delinquency Rates

Subprime Mortgages Highest in D-FW

Forced Home Sales

Top 5 States Underwater Sources: First American CoreLogic Top states where home mortgage holders in selected markets owed more than their property was worth at the end of June:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Sources: Standard & Poor’s; Fiserv Change in home prices in July 2009 compared with a year earlier.

The Scream

Household Net Worth Source: New York Times

Gross domestic product Source: Commerce Department Real Economic Growth ’09 2Q 2009: -0.7%

Monthly change, in thousands Source: Labor Department Sept ’09: -263, Nonfarm Payrolls

In percent, seasonally adjusted: Source: U.S. Department of Labor U. S. Jobless Rate Sept. ’09: 9.8%

Source: U.S. Commerce Department Sept. 2009: $345.8 billion Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted.

Aug 2009: $10.2 trillion Personal Consumption In trillions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production Sept. 2009: 97.5 Index, 2002=100, seasonally adjusted

Source: Commerce Department Construction Spending Aug 2009: $941.9 billion In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

Source: Dept. of Commerce; Dept. of H.U.D.; Census Bureau Housing Starts Sept. Starts: 590,000 New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Prices Aug. 2009: 0.2% 000

Tracking the Bailout

In billions of dollars Source: Office of Management and Budget, White House projections Budget Deficit 2007: -$163 billion 2008: -$454 billion 2009 Estimate: -$1.4 trillion 2010 Projected: -1.2 trillion

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Unemployment Rate, U. S., Texas, & D/FW U. S. Sept = 9.8% Texas Aug = 8.0% D/FW Aug = 8.2% U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted

Employment Change Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Source: Texas State Data Center *.5 Scenario DFW MSA Projected Population By Race/Ethnicity and Migration Scenario*

Major Threats to Texas Economy  Unstable Energy Prices  Drop in Defense Spending  Lower US Exports  Falling State and Local Tax Receipts

Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate Spot Average (Dollars per barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub Spot (Dollars per thousand cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg.com Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices:

In Billions Source: Comptroller of Public Accounts Trends in State Government Revenues

From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Sept. 2009: 53.1

Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100. Source: The Conference Board Leading Indicators Aug 2009:

Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income *May & June savings pattern influenced by Economic Stimulus Act of Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis Savings Rate Aug 2009: 3.0%

What good are Economists