Impacts of (Possible) Climate Change in the Production of Sugar cane in Center-South Region of Brazil J.Zullo Jr, A.Koga-Vicente, V.R.Pereira Cepagri - Center for Meteorological and Climate Studies Applied to Agriculture / Unicamp - University of Campinas

Challenge Answer the following questions: What can happen to Brazilian Agriculture in next decades if the temperature and precipitation change according to IPCC reports? Will the low climate risk areas of the main crops decrease, increase or migrate?

Public Policy since 1995 Coordination Political: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA) Technical: EMBRAPA, Regional Institutes for Agricultural Research and Universities National Farm Credit Policy: US$ 56.5 billion (7.5 for small farmers) in 2014/15 Main Objective Decrease the Climate Risks for less than 20% (probability of 80% of having an adequate water supply for irrigated and rainfed crops) Climate Risks Dry spells during the reproductive phase (flowering and grain filling) – 60% of losses Rainfall excess during maturation and harvest - 30% of losses Main crops are mainly rainfed (grow during the rainy season, i.e., from October to March); Methodology: Annual crops: Simulation of Cumulative Water Balances for Different Soil Types, Planting Dates, Cycle Lengths and Weather Ground Stations Perennial Crops: Combination of Information Plans Institutional website: Technical and Political Bases - Agricultural Zoning of Climate Risks

Agricultural Zoning of Climate Risks Planting calendars for all municipalities of a region or a state; three 10-days periods per month; three soil types (sandy, medium and clayey); two or three cycle lengths; First Crops: Rice, Beans, Corn, and Soybean; Current Crops: more than 40; Development and improvement of a robust methodology for Agricultural Zoning that can be used for other purposes related to the agricultural planning such as the Impact Assessment of the Climate Changes Source:

Challenge: choose the Global Climate Models – AR4/IPCC (2007) Reference: Macedo Filho, C. MSc Dissertation, Unicamp, Climate Change Scenarios – IPCC 2007 and 2013/14 Methodology: generation of new zonings simulating different climate conditions according to IPCC Reports

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar cane HadCM3 and MIROCmed GCM IPCC 2007 HadCM3 Miroc

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar cane HadGEM2 and MIROC3 GCM IPCC 2013/2014 HadGEM2 Miroc3

Comparisons – Current Zoning

Comparisons – Climate Change Scenarios – Hadley and Miroc – 2007 and 2013/14 HADLEYHADLEY MIROCMIROC AR4 – IPCC AR5 – IPCC – 2013/14 MODELMODEL

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar cane Overlay: Sugar mills and Planted areas HadGEM2 and MIROC3 GCM IPCC 2013/2014 HadGEM2 Miroc3

Sugar mills, Current Zoning and a Climate Change Scenario

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar cane Ribeirão Preto – Traditional Region HadGEM2 Miroc3

Competition for Sugar cane in the state of São Paulo References: Belik et al. (2013b) and Vicente et al. (2012)

References: Belik et al. (2013) and Vicente et al. (2012) Competition for Sugar cane in the region of Ribeirão Preto and its neighbor regions

Climate Change Scenarios – Sugar cane Expansion Regions HadGEM2 Miroc3

Available Area = Total Area – Urban Area – Water Bodies - Protected Areas - Sugar cane - (Coffee + Orange) - (Rice + Maize + Beans) Available Area for Expansion of Sugar cane

Ribeirão Preto - IBGE Piracicaba - IBGE Traditional Sugar cane Regions – Land use

Expansion Regions – Land use Araçatuba - IBGE Presidente Prudente - IBGE

Data and Papers Available Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil

Conclusions Global Climate Models: Temperature anomalies of new version of Hadley Global Climate Model improved the areas of low climate risk (mainly in south of Minas Gerais) Challenges for the future Traditional Regions Increase the yield and develop new production technologies because of the low availability of land for expansion Better planning because of the competition for sugar cane Expansion Regions Breeding development adapted to water deficit because of the increasing need of irrigation

Impacts of (Possible) Climate Change in the Production of Sugar cane in Center-South Region of Brazil J.Zullo Jr, A.Koga-Vicente, V.R.Pereira Cepagri - Center for Meteorological and Climate Studies Applied to Agriculture / Unicamp - University of Campinas