Developing links with agricultural research centres Andrew Challinor and Tim Wheeler

The CGIAR network In and for developing countries 16 centres across the globe Autonomous but collaborative Broad research base Germplasm bank Con

Links with CGIAR centres... ‘to collate information needed for applications by agricultural research centres’ potential applications of forecast information forecast data: when, scale, format, … any other issues?

ICRISAT Location: India and Niger Semi-arid tropics Groundnut Millet Sorghum

CIMMYT Location: Mexico and Zimbabwe Maize and wheat Visited in Feb. 2002

CIAT Location: Colombia Beans and cassava Visited Feb. 2002

IRRI Location: The Philippines Rice Visited March 2002 Oldest CG centre (F. 1960)

Overview of response Rainfall seen as the most important variable Spatial scale is an issue, especially in mountainous regions Probabilistic forecasts not always initially seen as useful Importance of drought / heat stress at critical crop stages

LeadtimeLeadtime Spatial scale annual seasonal monthly daily Country district field Seed production Risk assessment and crop scheduling Pests and disease control FEWSFEWS

Examples of applications of SF Planting of drought tolerant bean varieties Forecasting of dry spells near flowering Transplant vs. direct seeding for rice Rainfall-related cassava diseases Maize streak virus Bean breeding

ApplicationBackgroundInformation required End-users Aflatoxin contamination of groundnut Aflatoxin is a carcinogenic toxin produced by a fungus which grows on groundnut seeds during crop growth under certain climatic conditions, and in subsequent seed stores. It is a major risk to human health and livestock, and restricts access of agricultural products to global markets. Soil temperature and rainfall during crop growth required up to 60d ahead Agricultural planning agencies and extension services. The livestock feed industry. More efficient use of agricultural inputs Inorganic fertilisers are expensive inputs for semi-arid crop production. Fertilisers are less effective in promoting crop growth and yield in dry compared with wet seasons. Crop water balance up to 120d ahead Government extension services and larger-scale farmers Livestock feed quality of sorghum The quality of sorghum grain for livestock is reduced drastically if the crop is infected by grain molds during crop growth. The spread of grain molds in sorghum crops is linked to rainfall and humidity, but infection is only apparent after harvest. Rainfall and humidity up to 30d before harvest National livestock feed industry. Possibly, short-term (7d) information for farmers

General Circulation Model Application model spatial parameters model uncertainties output processing weather forecast crop forecast Large area model Methodology for exploring applications of SF Regional Climate Model

Participatory research at CIAT Oberthur (2002)

Combining local and formal knowledge Relevance Accuracy Local knowledge X X Formal knowledge 10 farmers 8 World Bank Govts. (Mintzberg) ? ? ?