The Challenge from India Dr. Brian W Tempest Chief Mentor & Executive Vice Chairman of the Board Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, Delhi, India Mumbai – September 2006
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Asia’s Share of the World GDP (at PPP in %) Year China 17% 9% 5% 5% 12% India 12% 8% 4% 3% 5% Japan 2% 3% 3% 8% 7% Rest of Asia 7% 5% 7% 9% 13% Total Asia 38% 25% 19% 25% 37% Source – WEF - was 59% in 1820 with India 16%, China 33%
1.India+84% 2.Pakistan+75% 3.Korea+54% 4.Philippines+39% 5.China+34% Stock Market Performance in Asia in 2005 Source: Rimes in GBP
Davos 2006 Source – FT
The Productivity Advantage Indiaa usa Pharma view USA 1 chemist 1 chemist 70 hours/week 50 hours/week $ 800 monthly $ 12,000 monthly Better education x 1.3 Longer working time x 1.3 Lower cost x 20 Sources: IPHMR Conferences, New Delhi August 2004
Europe - retirees grow faster than workers - fertility rates lower, only 600k new Germans in 2005 Japan - by % > 65 years from 19% in 2005 USA - over 50’s 88m will grow to 118m (2020) - obesity will cap life expectancy China - one child families - get older before becoming wealthy - labour costs will rise owing to labour shortage - South Guangdong province is short of 2m workers India - will remain very young - 50% <25years, 65% <35 years - source of the extra needed global workforce - in m > 65 years (to China’s 200m) The Ageing Advantage
India and China: Working Population (age 15-64*;mn) *People who could potentially be economically active Source: UN
Growth -GDP World growth marginally less in 06 than 05 (+4.3%) -USA expansion at a slower growth than 05 (+3.6%) -Euro zone, expected to perform better than USA - Japan, sustain current growth -China, slightly slower growth to prevent hard landing -India, increasing growth rate being talked up to 9%/10% - NRIs have overtaken the World Bank as the source of India’s foreign debt Chindia, 40% population, 8% economy Sentiment - India, largest foreign affairs caucus in US Congress (180) -Nuclear deal -China, 74,000 demonstrations reported in 2005 in China -State secrecy laws, IP rights The Economic Growth Advantage
Exports to GDP: India vs. China since Start of Reforms Source: WTO, Morgan Stanley Research
The world has 793 billionaires USA has 371 – almost half India - 23 billionaires, UK has 24 China - 8 billionaires Net worth of 40 richest Indians - $106 b 40 richest Chinese - $26b “2006 belongs to some of the emerging markets, and no country more than India” Source: Forbes The Billionaires Advantage
The R&D Investment Advantage Most attractive R&D Investment locations: 1. China 2. USA 3. India 4. Japan 5. UK Source – UNCTAD 2005
Qualified Scientists & Engineers Global India players with Alliances English speaking TRIPs compliant – first patent March 2006 IIT, IIM & other scientific institutions Source – UNCTAD 2005 The R&D Investment Advantage -reasons why India
4 th largest reservoir of Scientific Manpower (2 nd largest English speaking) 3m graduates pa, 115k MSc Chemistry, 215k Eng (222k USA) Physics the most popular subject Knowledge super power in the making Lead by a Nuclear Scientist as President – remote sensing satellite technology, 1/6 countries PCT application ranked 3 rd – K, Ch, Ind, Si, RSA Diaspora network (25m across 120 countries) US & Europe will not dominate Science, Maths, IT The Knowledge Advantage
Science Education in EU “This means that when pupils are in a science laboratory their experience is unsafe, unsatisfactory or uninspiring for 65% of the time. In addition, 13% of science classes are not taught in a laboratory at all” Source: Royal Society of Chemistry, Policy Bulletin – Spring 2006 UK “A” Level entries:Closed UK University % change Chemistry Departments: Physics : 32,059 28, % Dundee Kings Chemistry: 40,856 38,851 -5% Surrey Exeter Maths: 67,036 52, % Lancaster Queen Mary Computing: 19,099 7, % under review-Sussex Source: Daily Mail – 11 August 2006
The Knowledge Advantage Engineers/Science graduates p.a – India 0.7m, China 0.5m, EU 0.5m, USA 0.4m, Japan 0.3m
34 News TV channels. Oldest 13 years old (NDTV) 5000 newspapers, circulation 17m. 12 with 1m copies each 200m daily readers. 21m new daily readers 2003/2005, +14% with 50% rural and 50% urban readership Principal internet languages to become English, Chinese and Hindi STD Kiosks converted to Internet Cafes. India to become the largest Internet market in 5-10 years 5 th member of the 100m mobiles club Indians are hungry for information The Information Advantage Source: World Business , Larry Page (Google) zeitgeist conference may 2006
Manufacturing growth - Chinese manufacturing +12% - India manufacturing +6.5% Scope for improvement of Government Policies Revitalization of agriculture - beyond milk (1 st globally), wheat (2 nd ), rice (2 rd ) More privatization – public sector not so buoyant Further encouragement of R&D for Pharmaceuticals Expand further the prosperous middle class of 300m The Potential for Improvement Advantage
High quality healthcare, international standards Patients from developed & developing countries Growing privatization of hospitals, paperless hospitals Analysis of serum samples from EU hospitals in India already Low Costs: Thailand India - Open heart $14250 $ Hysterectomy $ 2012 $ Knee surgery $7000 $4500 Better access through Indian immigration & airports likely The Medical Tourism Advantage
The M&A Future Advantage
$b 1997/ / / / / / / / /66.0 Source: Outlook business June /7 on target for $10b - But still only 15% of China The FDI Advantage
$m Leading to even more Pharma R&D facilities and factories Source – Citigroup Investment by top 15 Indian Domestic Pharmaceutical Companies
Investment by foreign Pharma companies
Microsoft Global Development Centre (GDCI) Microsoft Global Services (MGSI) Microsoft Global Technical Support Centre (GTSC) Microsoft Systems Research (MSRI) Microsoft India Development Centre (MIDC) Investment by Microsoft in India
A Global Strategic Asset for developed World Market businesses India
$b USA W Europe 9 14 Japan 3 4 Rest of America 6 9 ROW Total Source: Frost & Sullivan “India could soon dominate the entire production chain for generics” IMS prediction No 4 Scrip April The Global Generic Market – growing everywhere
The Pharma Advantage Competitive Advantage – Aggressive Home Market
The Pharma Advantage Competitive Advantage - Cost of Manufacture Active Pharmaceuticals Facility, MohaliDosage Forms Facility, Paonta Sahib Highest number of FDA approved plants outside the US No. of FDA approved plants: Source: Crisil / IPA
The Pharma Advantage R&D I R&D III R&D II Competitive Advantage - Cost of Innovation Ranbaxy’s Patent Filings
The Pharma Advantage – API’s USA DMF filings by India Source: Crisil / US FDA / J P Morgan % Share of USA DMF filings India China % 9% % 10% Q1’06 44% 15% Q2’06 41% 16% Source: US FDA / J P Morgan 6 th August 2006
Annual USA ANDA Filings Ranbaxy 29 Sun22 Orchid18 Lupin14 DRL13 Cadilla12 Source: Pharmabiz 8 th Sept’ One in every four ANDAs filed by Indian Companies in top USA FDA filers Source: KPMG - 29 ANDAs p.a ranks in top 3 USA FDA filers - Indian Generic Companies on a Filing Spree - BOA - - No Chinese generic company has yet filed a USA FDA - ANDA The Pharma Advantage - ANDAs
Leading Generic Companies Source : Company /Financial reports & presentations Annual Sales (US$ Millions) Source: CLSA, 6 August 2006
A race to Prosperity With Law (India) & Order (China) Buddhism Joint Bids for oil assets Silk road re-opened – Sikkim to Tibet (Nathula Pass) Calcutta port is only 1120k from Lhasa
Potential Downsides to the Indian Scenario
Potential downside – Asian Flu* *50% of world chickens bred in Asia
Potential downside – Oil prices* Source – Outlook business June 2006 A war against Iran could drive oil > $200 a barrel - ‘Times’ 22 nd June 2006 Oil is 33% of Indian Energy Sources – IMA, India June 2006 BRIC countries consume 20% oil
USA – 4% population with 20% emissions China – Same level as USA in In 2025 will be double India, China, USA – Refuse any mandatory CO 2 emission caps India is 6 th greatest energy consumer Ganges River is the World’s most polluted river – source: World Commission on water Potential Downside - Pollution
Potential downside – Infrastructure A common view Source – Manmohan Singh - Infrastructure will need $155b over the next five years
Potential downside – Counterfeit products from India -but not a global issue Origin of fake products seized in EU in 2004 Rank 1. China 2. Thailand 3. Hong Kong 4. Turkey 5. USA Source: FT Countries where fake pharma products seized in 2005 Rank 1. Russia 2. China 3. South Korea 4. Peru 5. Columbia Source: PSI 192,000 died from Counterfeit drugs in China in 2001 Source: IMS 27 th Feb’2006
Asia economic strength is returning to levels seen in the past Many advantages for India – particularly R&D India as a global strategic asset Some downsides - infrastructure The current feeling in India a turning point has been reached and an inflexion point has been passed China & India represent the future of Asia and quite possibly the future for the global economy – Steve Roach, Morgan Stanley Summary
“We have all grown up learning the story of the unfinished voyage of Christopher Columbus setting sail to reach India, he discovered America. I now invite the people of America to complete the Voyage of that great explorer” Manmohan Singh Prime Minister of India July 2005
Thank You