Tallinn University of Technology Estonian real estate market – the day after housing boom Angelika Kallakmaa Ene Kolbre

Tallinn University of Technology According to the data of Global Property Guide According to the data of Global Property Guide Estonia was 2006 the leader of the global house price boom Estonia was followed by Denmark, Norway and Ireland

Tallinn University of Technology Housing price bust Housing price bust Equity price busts occurred on average every 13 years, lasted for 2 1/2 years, and were associated with GDP losses of about 4 percent of GDP Housing price busts were less frequent, but lasted nearly twice as long and were associated with output losses that were twice as large, reflecting greater effects on consumption and banking systems, which are typically heavily exposed to real estate ( IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2003, When Bubbles burst)

Tallinn University of Technology Economic indicators and forecast Real GDP growth (%) 10,46,3-3,6-12,30,24,7 Real private consumption growth (%) 12,87,8-4,0-9,5-1,74,7 Unemployment rate (%) 5,94,75,512,813,712,5 Real wage growth (%) 11,611,63,3-4,7-3,23,7 Nominal credit growth (%) 51,630,27,3-7,5-0,54,9

Tallinn University of Technology Average Monthly Gross Wages and Salaries, EUR year 1 Q 2Q3Q4Q

Tallinn University of Technology Problem for households Problem for households House or flat is mostly the largest investment of Estonian households Increasing house prices result in greater housing wealth and also made it possible to borrow more using housing wealth as collateral

Tallinn University of Technology Stock of household loans and housing loans ( , EEK mln)

Tallinn University of Technology Interest rate on households housing loans

Tallinn University of Technology Total volume of housing loans has increased as a result of low interest rate and tight competition in banking sector Econometric model what was constructed 2007 by using 8 different economic indicators for describing their influence to price of 2-room apartment in Tallinn shows that only 2 of them – money supply and interests rate were significant indicators to price changes of housing market in Estonia (Kolbre, Kallakmaa 2007)

Tallinn University of Technology Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Trend, Cycle or Boom? 2006 Gergely Kiss, Márton Nagy, Balázs Vonnák “The estimations show that large part of the credit growth in new member states can be explained by the catching-up process, and, in general, credit/GDP ratios are below the levels consistent with macroeconomic fundamentals However, in some countries credit growth is significantly faster than what would be justified along the equilibrium path The study finds that credit growth in Latvia and Estonia can be considered as potentially the most risky, beyond any plausible adjustment”

Tallinn University of Technology Loans granted by groups of customers ( , EEK m)

Tallinn University of Technology Overdue loans and overdue housing loans ( annual basis, 2009 monthly basis)

Tallinn University of Technology Don't worry – left and right scales are different! ( annual basis, 2009 monthly basis)

Tallinn University of Technology Resent developments Resent developments The volume of loans overdue by more than 60 days increased in April (making up 5.2% of the portfolio. In March the respective indicator was 4.5%) Nearly 75% of the loan portfolio quality deterioration in April derived from the corporate credit sector; households have so far been more successful in loan servicing Thus, loans overdue by more than 60 days accounted for 6.4% of the credit issued to enterprises and 3.9% of the credit to households

Tallinn University of Technology Access to credit and credit constraints (1) Unemployment rate is growing Wage increase has stopped No more unrealistic expectations Housing living cost are growing (thermal energy etc)

Tallinn University of Technology Access to credit and credit constraints (2) No more “customer-friendly” credit conditions Parent banks might have difficulties in raising external funds because of situation in global financial markets This is supply-side constraints - less loan money for the Estonian market

Tallinn University of Technology Despite of global finance crisis Estonian Banking system is still stable The average capital adequacy of the banking sector stayed at the level of 22% in April 2009 Banks have made remarkable provisions during this year to avoiding possible loan losses The capitalisation of banks continues to be sufficient to cope with the forecasted loan losses

Tallinn University of Technology The accelerated price increase in housing sector and high demand was mostly driven by: High economic growth leading to an increase in disposable income High economic growth leading to an increase in disposable income The rapid expansion of credit to the private sector The rapid expansion of credit to the private sector A low ratio of living-space per capita and deteriorating housing stock A low ratio of living-space per capita and deteriorating housing stock

Tallinn University of Technology Real estate purchase and sales transactions

Tallinn University of Technology Housing market Prices of apartments started to rise rapidly in 2005 when the annual price rise was over 50%. The growth rate of transactions started to slow down in the middle of The price rise turned to decline in 2007 when the housing prices reached the maximum Average price fall since spring 2007 has been 40-45% During 2008 prices of apartments in Tallinn dropped 30%

Tallinn University of Technology Average Purchase-Sale Prices per Square Metre of a 2-room Apartment and number of transactions in Tallinn, EEK EEK/ sqm Average price Number of transactions

Tallinn University of Technology Housing market today Housing market today In 2004−2006 demand for housing was greater than supply In 2004−2006 demand for housing was greater than supply Since the beginning of 2007 supply started to grow rapidly Since the beginning of 2007 supply started to grow rapidly 2008 supply has been greater than demand 2008 supply has been greater than demand Approximately 1700 vacant apartments are in Tallinn on the market today as a result of the rapid growth of the volume of new developments Approximately 1700 vacant apartments are in Tallinn on the market today as a result of the rapid growth of the volume of new developments

Tallinn University of Technology Tobin’s q of the Estonian and Tallinn apartment market

Tallinn University of Technology Average gross monthly wages and average price for a square metre of a two-room apartment in Tallinn (EEK)

Tallinn University of Technology Number of square meters of a two-room apartment in Tallinn obtainable for average gross monthly wages

Tallinn University of Technology Housing affordability Housing affordability Households budgets are tighten Households budgets are tighten Households living costs are raised (especially thermal energy) Households living costs are raised (especially thermal energy) There is one group of households who can't afford to buy a new house or flat There is one group of households who can't afford to buy a new house or flat And other group who might be have difficulties to repay their home loans And other group who might be have difficulties to repay their home loans

Tallinn University of Technology Conclusions (1) Conclusions (1) In Tallinn or in its close vicinity no new major projects are expected to be launched within the next year or two In Tallinn or in its close vicinity no new major projects are expected to be launched within the next year or two The bottom of the Estonian real estate market is approaching, although the shape of this bottom is expected to be flat, which means a long vegetating in all economy The bottom of the Estonian real estate market is approaching, although the shape of this bottom is expected to be flat, which means a long vegetating in all economy

Tallinn University of Technology Conclusions (2) Despite of global finance crisis Estonian Banking system is still stable Despite of global finance crisis Estonian Banking system is still stable Most of housing loans was taken in economic growth conditions and full employment expectations Most of housing loans was taken in economic growth conditions and full employment expectations Households with repayment difficulties should sell their property or change it for affordable variant Households with repayment difficulties should sell their property or change it for affordable variant To build up the “building society” system To build up the “building society” system The government should disclaim for the possibility to deduct the housing loan interest from taxable income The government should disclaim for the possibility to deduct the housing loan interest from taxable income

Tallinn University of Technology Thank you! Thank you!

Tallinn University of Technology Authors Authors Angelika Kallakmaa Angelika Kallakmaa School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology Ene Kolbre Ene Kolbre School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology