How to Conduct Systematic Political Research Merits of methodology How to Conduct Systematic Political Research

Lecture Structure Aims Methods of Comparison Single Case Study Using Quantitative Literature Applying a Theory vs. Discursive Method

Methods of Comparison

Methodology Definition: A body of methods, rules, and postulates employed by a discipline: a particular procedure or set of procedures. The analysis of the principles of inquiry in a particular field. (Merriam-Webster Dictionary)

Questions addressed in this course How should we study conflict? What causes conflict? Who participates in conflict? How do people behave during conflict? What are the consequences of conflict? How do we evaluate conflict?

Comparing Literature What is the key similarity between Mamdani (2001) and Collier & Hoeffler (2004)?

Comparing Literature Mamdani (2001) Collier and Hoeffler (2004) Rwandan genocide 1994 Qualitative evidence Collier and Hoeffler (2004) Civil conflicts 1960-1999 Quantitative evidence

Methods of Comparison Three basic approaches to answering a research question: Large-N: > 50 cases. Small-N: 2-20 cases. Single case study: 1 case. N = number of cases/observations.

Small-n (aka ‘comparative method’) Cases are intentionally selected in order to establish ‘control.’ Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD). Similar cases. Different outcome. Most Different Systems Design (MDSD). Different cases. Same outcome.

Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil war, using this research design?

Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil war, using this research design?

Single Case Study

What is a Single-Country Study? “any study in which a single country forms the basic unit of analysis, but which may also be broken down into smaller units across time and space...” (Landman, 2000: 86) N = 1

What is a Case Study? Single observation/case: N = 1 Time Space Level of Analysis N = 1

Functions of a Case Study Classification. Contextual description. Hypothesis generation. Theory testing: Most likely study. Least likely study. Outliers. Process tracing.

Limitations of Single Case Studies Limited scope/generalisability. Selection bias.

Further Reading Landman, Todd. 2007. Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics: An Introduction. London: Routledge.

Quantitative Literature

Regression Analysis (1/2)

Characteristics of Quantitative Literature Large-N Empirical data Statistical techniques

Large-n How many observations are examined in Collier and Hoeffler (2004)?

Collier & Hoeffler’s dataset by the numbers 98 countries 79 civil conflicts 1960-1999 divided into 5-year periods 750 observations

Concepts in this Course Authority and coercion; Structural violence and deadly force; Conflict and war; Positive and negative peace; Peacemaking; Peacekeeping; Peace enforcement; Peacebuilding; The military; and Militarism.

Concept v. Variable Concept = abstract. Variable = observable/measurable.

How do we measure the following concepts? Conflict Democracy Ethnic tension Inequality

Statistical Techniques Used to look for patterns between variables. Correlation: relationship between two variables. Correlation is not the same as causation! Example: ice cream and summer.

Natural Resources and Conflict

Regression Adds a line of best fit to the observed result. Regression analysis therefore measures the extent to which independent variables predict the dependent variable.

Regression Analysis (1/2)

Regression Analysis (2/2)

Terminology Significance Levels Regressor/Predictor/Independent Variable P-values Confidence intervals

Limitations Cannot prove causation. Limited interpretive ability (i.e. explaining why these relationships exist). Use of proxies.

Analysing Collier & Hoeffler (2004) Q: Does natural resource prevalence explain the onset of civil conflict? Steps to follow: How did they operationalise and measure these concepts. Do these proxies make sense? Is there correlation? In other words – what do we see happening to the likelihood of conflict variable when we look at different natural resource/GDP values. Ask how much we should read into the correlation. Ask the students here what might make us more or less likely to find one of the correlations important or suggestive of a causal relationship.

Theory and Your Research

Applying Theory Systematically Logic of theory Language that a theory demands Units of analysis Consistency through the paper Acknowledging limitations

Referring to Theory as Evidence Not constrained by the logic of the theory Used to add to understanding, or to hold theory up to criticism or praise Can compare explanations offered by different theories