Introduction to GIS Modeling Week 10 — Future Directions GEOG 3110 – University of Denver Presented by Joseph K. Berry W. M. Keck Scholar, Department of Geography, University of Denver GIS in Transition; Dominant IT Forces; Dominant GIS Forces; A Peek at The Bleeding Edge; Dominant Human Forces

…can only improve your overall grade (if you blow it, no problem) Available now; must be completed by 5:00pm Tuesday, March 19 th Exam #2 End of Term Logistics (Berry) Optional Exercise #10 …or any of the other Optional Exercises with Exercise #1 through #9 Must be completed by 5:00pm Friday, March 22 nd But now, log in to WebCentral at Click on the “Student” tab, then click on “Course Evaluations” on the right hand side of the page

(Nanotechnology) Geotechnology (Biotechnology) GPS/GIS/RS Modeling involves analysis of spatial relationships and patterns (numerical analysis) PrescriptiveModeling Mapping involves precise placement (delineation) of physical features (graphical inventory) DescriptiveMapping Geotechnology is one of the three "mega technologies" for the 21st century and promises to forever change how we conceptualize, utilize and visualize spatial relationships in scientific research and commercial applications (U.S. Department of Labor) Why So What and What If Global Positioning System (location and navigation) Geographic Information Systems (map and analyze) Where is What Remote Sensing (measure and classify) The Spatial Triad Focus of this course(Berry)

Geotechnology Geotechnology – one of the three “mega-technologies” for the 21 st Century (the other two are Nanotechnology and Biotechnology, U.S. Department of Labor ) 70s Computer Mapping (Automated Cartography) 80s Spatial Database Management (Mapping and Geo-query) Map Analysis 90s Map Analysis (Spatial Relationships and Patterns) Global Positioning System (Location and Navigation) Remote Sensing (Measure and Classify) Geographic Information Systems Geographic Information Systems (Map and Analyze) History/Evolution of Map Analysis Spatial Statistics Spatial Statistics (Numerical context) Surface Modeling (point data to continuous spatial distributions Spatial Data Mining (interrelationships within and among map layers) Spatial Analysis Spatial Analysis (Geographical context) Reclassify (single map layer; no new spatial information) Overlay (coincidence of two or more map layers; new spatial information) Proximity (simple/effective distance and connectivity; new spatial information) Neighbors (roving window summaries of local vicinity; new spatial information) Framework Paper Organizational Structure of this Course (Berry)

Reclassify operations involve reassigning map values to reflect new information about existing map features on a single map layer Overlay operations involve characterizing the spatial coincidence of mapped data on two or more map layers Classes of Spatial Analysis Operators …all Spatial Analysis involves generating new map values (numbers) as a mathematical or statistical function of the values on another map layer(s) —sort of a “map-ematics” for analyzing spatial relationships and patterns— —sort of a “map-ematics” for analyzing spatial relationships and patterns— GIS Toolbox (Geographic Context) (Berry)

Proximity operations involve measuring distance and connectivity among map locations Neighborhood operations involve characterizing mapped data within the vicinity of map locations Classes of Spatial Analysis Operators (Geographic) …all Spatial Analysis involves generating new map values (numbers) as a mathematical or statistical function of the values on another map layer(s) —sort of a “map-ematics” for analyzing spatial relationships and patterns— —sort of a “map-ematics” for analyzing spatial relationships and patterns— GIS Toolbox (Geographic Context) (Berry)

Spatial Data Mining operations involve characterizing numerical patterns and relationships within and among mapped data Classes of Spatial Statistics Operators (Spatial Statistics) Surface Modeling operations involve creating continuous spatial distributions from point sampled data …all Spatial Analysis involves generating new map values (numbers) as a mathematical or statistical function of the values on another map layer(s) —sort of a “map-ematics” for analyzing spatial relationships and patterns— —sort of a “map-ematics” for analyzing spatial relationships and patterns— GIS Toolbox (Numeric Context) (Berry)

The modern geotechnology recipe is one part data, one part analysis and a dash of colorful rendering. That’s a far cry from the traditional mapping recipe of basically all data with a generous ladling of cartography. …a cheesy cooking analogy— Mixing It Up in GIS Modeling’s Kitchen (Berry) Today’s maps are less renderings of “precise placement of physical features for navigation and record-keeping” (meat and potatoes) than they are interactive compilations of “interpretations of spatial relationships for understanding and decision-making” (haute cuisine) …a rephrasing of an old saying seems appropriate— “Bits and bytes may break my bones, but inaccurate modeling will surely poison me.” Bits and BytesMap Values IngredientsMap Layers GIS Modeling PantryMap StackSupermarketDatabase Warehouse All Available Mapped Data Display

Map-ematical Structure (Berry) The basic mathematical structure uses sequential processing of basic mathematical operations to perform a wide variety of complex map analyses. By controlling the order in which the operations are executed on variables, and using a common database to store the intermediate results, a robust processing structure is developed— A "map-ematical" structure similar to traditional mathematics in which primitive operations, such as addition, subtraction, and exponentiation, are logically sequenced for specified variables to form equations. However, in map-ematics the variables represent entire maps consisting of geo-registered sets of values in the form of grid-based map layers (matrices). Application Models Key Sub-Models Generalized Techniques Fundamental Operations Mathematical Structure “Operators” “Equations” System Dynamics “Models” Map-ematical Structure “Operators” Accumulated Cost “Equations” Pipeline Corridor “Models” Map Analysis/Modeling— is a conceptual extension of traditional mathematics in which arithmetic operators, such as addition and subtraction, are used to express relationships among variables. “Map-ematics,” in an analogous manner, operates on entire maps at a time using fundamental operators to express relationships among mapped variables. Accumulated Cost Surface End Optimal Route Start

Atomistic/Holistic and Analysis/Synthesis Modeling (Berry) Atomistic / Analysis — “consisting of many separate, often disparate elements” …a Reductionist’s approach of breaking complex problems into simpler pieces which can then be analyzed individually Holistic / Synthesis — “emphasizing the organic or functional relation between parts and the whole” … an Interactionist’s approach of seeing the world as an integrated whole rather than a dissociated collection of parts … like Chemistry, Map Analysis and GIS Modeling uses many of the same techniques to both Analyze (break into individual elements  maps) and Synthesize (assemble elements into new compounds  models) Housing Density Road Proximity Sensitive Areas Visual Exposure Holistic / Synthesis “ Combining constituent elements into a whole” GIS Modeling   Map Analysis Atomistic / Analysis “ Separating a whole into constituent elements” Road Proximity Sensitive Areas Housing Density Visual Exposure

Grad Student Presentations (Berry) James — Wildfire Risk Modeling (mini-Project 7) Wildfire Risk ModelingWildfire Risk Modeling Sarah — Sarah — Jamaica’s Waste-to-Energy Paradigm: Potential for geospatial analysisJamaica’s Waste-to-Energy Paradigm Darin — Darin — Inclusion of Cellular Automata in the Spatial Analysis of Plant Community DynamicsInclusion of Cellular Automata in the Spatial Analysis of Plant Community Dynamics Gustavo — Gustavo — Geo-business Analysis (mini-Project 4)Geo-business Analysis

Historical Setting and GIS Evolution Spatial Database Management links computer mapping techniques with traditional database capabilities (80s) Multimedia Mapping/Geo-Web full integration of GIS, Internet and visualization technologies (00s) Map Analysis representation of relationships within and among mapped data (90s) Computer Mapping automates the cartographic process (70s) Manual Mapping for 8,000 years ANALOG Focus of this course Mass Adoption of both GIS Technology and Analysis Applications making Geotechnology a “fabric of society” through a broad coalition of Information Technology, GIS and Human forces that extend spatial reasoning, understanding and dialog (10s) Digital Maps <50 years Geotechnology (GPS, GIS, RS) DIGITAL(Berry)

SystemsApplications GIS Specialists General Users System Managers Data Providers GIS Developers General Programmers Public Users #3 Enlarging GIS Community (historical evolution) 2010 s – billions of general and public users ( RS, GIS, GPS, GW, Devices ) 1970 s – a few hundred innovators establishing the foundation of geotechnology (Automated Cartography) …minimal S&T knowledge …a deep keel of knowledge in Science and Technology 1980 s – several thousand pacesetters applying the technology to a small set of disciplines ( RS, GIS ) 1990 s – hundreds of thousands GIS specialists and general users ( RS, GIS, GPS ) 2000 s – millions of general and public users ( RS, GIS, GPS, GeoWeb ) (Berry)

Dominant IT Forces (three game changers) #2 Crowdsourcing — Crowdsourcing is the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by an employee or contractor, to a large group of people or community (a crowd), through an open call. #2 Crowdsourcing — Crowdsourcing is the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by an employee or contractor, to a large group of people or community (a crowd), through an open call. #3 Photosynth — Photosynth takes sets of photos, mashes them together to create a geometrically stable immersive 3D scene that allows the viewer to explore details of places, objects, and events #3 Photosynth — Photosynth takes sets of photos, mashes them together to create a geometrically stable immersive 3D scene that allows the viewer to explore details of places, objects, and events #1 Cloud Computing — Cloud computing is computation, software, data access, and storage services that do not require end-user knowledge of the physical location and configuration of the system that delivers the services #1 Cloud Computing — Cloud computing is computation, software, data access, and storage services that do not require end-user knowledge of the physical location and configuration of the system that delivers the services(Berry)

Virtualized Scalable Service #1 Cloud Computing (“Hosted Elsewhere” environment) Software Capabilities Maps and Imagery Databases Mobile Devices Server “Web Services” “Object-Oriented” Technology “Mash-ups” “Enterprise GIS” “Geography Network” “Interoperability” “Distributed Systems” “Mobile GIS” Buzzwords Old “On-Line Office” “On-Line Resources and Storage” “3 rd Party Integration” “Software as a Service” “On-Demand Apps” “Grid Computing” New + Lower operational costs, quicker development times and device independence + Enables heavy duty data crunching to better process and explore Internet information pools + Pay for usage reduces fixed expenses on hardware, software, maintenance and support Pros  Data and processing is at the mercy of the service provider and reliable Internet connection  Capabilities limited by marketplace demand, standardization and provider incentives  Security concerns, liability, legal position and data/processing ownership/responsibility Cons(Berry)

In-house Survey design, implementation and analysis— For example, the public may be invited to develop a new technology, carry out a design task (also known as “community-based design” and “distributed participatory design”), or help capture, systematize or analyze large amounts of data (citizen science). The term has become popular with businesses, authors, and journalists as shorthand for the trend of leveraging mass collaboration enabled by the Internet. Crowdsourcing is the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by an employee or contractor, to a large group of people or community (a crowd), through an open call. — Wikipedia Crowdsourcing Internet Camera GPS …a spatially consistent and interactive participatory device in every pocket #2 Crowdsourcing for GIS Input/Verification (Berry)

#3 Phytosynth for GIS Input (Berry) RMNP Violin RMNP Violin Photosynth takes sets of photos, mashes them together to create a geometrically stable immersive 3D scene that allows the viewer to explore details of places, objects, and events. …in a sense, it is analogous to airborne Lidar as it forms 3-dimensional point clouds that when rectified yields sub-meter XYZ positioning within composited image using standard digital camera photo sets from multiple angles. Photosynth takes sets of photos, mashes them together to create a geometrically stable immersive 3D scene that allows the viewer to explore details of places, objects, and events. …in a sense, it is analogous to airborne Lidar as it forms 3-dimensional point clouds that when rectified yields sub-meter XYZ positioning within composited image using standard digital camera photo sets from multiple angles. 3-dimensional Maps

Dominant GIS Forces (three game changers) #2 Universal Spatial Key — use of the new referencing system to automatically join all databases by serving as a “spatially-enabled” Universal Key (Implicit Spatial Topology) #2 Universal Spatial Key — use of the new referencing system to automatically join all databases by serving as a “spatially-enabled” Universal Key (Implicit Spatial Topology) …sort of like a three- dimensional UTM grid cell (1 m 2 ) #3 Alternative Geographic Referencing (3D GIS) — our current “rectangular-based” coordinate system will be replaced by a 3-dimensional coordinate system of columns (X), rows (Y), and verticals (Z) defining an imaginary matrix of grid elements #3 Alternative Geographic Referencing (3D GIS) — our current “rectangular-based” coordinate system will be replaced by a 3-dimensional coordinate system of columns (X), rows (Y), and verticals (Z) defining an imaginary matrix of grid elements #1 Boutique to Big Box — continued movement of GIS from a “boutique discipline” to increased mainstream use and subsequent redefinition of What GIS Is and its Industry Leaders #1 Boutique to Big Box — continued movement of GIS from a “boutique discipline” to increased mainstream use and subsequent redefinition of What GIS Is and its Industry Leaders Today Tomorrow CAD, dBase and Visualization Industries …etc. GIS Industry (Berry)

#1 Boutique to Big Box ScienceSystems SpecialistSolutions GIS …four main perspectives of the trailing “S” GISystems — At the birth of the discipline, the “S” unequivocally stood for a System of hardware, software and dataware with little or no reference to people or uses GISystems — At the birth of the discipline, the “S” unequivocally stood for a System of hardware, software and dataware with little or no reference to people or uses GISpecialists — The idea that the trailing “S” defines Specialists took hold in the 1990s as the result of two major forces, uniqueness and utility GISpecialists — The idea that the trailing “S” defines Specialists took hold in the 1990s as the result of two major forces, uniqueness and utility …etc. GIS Industry GIScience — recognition of a more in-depth Science-based discipline has evolved the “practitioner” role (what does it take to keep a GIS alive and how can it be used?) into a more “theoretical” role (how does GIS work, how could it be improved and what else could it do?) GIScience — recognition of a more in-depth Science-based discipline has evolved the “practitioner” role (what does it take to keep a GIS alive and how can it be used?) into a more “theoretical” role (how does GIS work, how could it be improved and what else could it do?) GISolutions — the new focus seems to be on entirely new GIS Solutions from iPhone crowdsourcing to Google Earth visualizations GISolutions — early GIS solutions focused on mapping and geo-query that primarily automated existing business practices; the new focus seems to be on entirely new GIS Solutions from iPhone crowdsourcing to Google Earth visualizations to advanced map-ematical models predicting wildfire behavior, customer propensity and optimal routing CAD, dBase and Visualization Industries …etc. (Berry)

Project Area (Areal Extent) North W S E Caspian Sea off the coast of Azerbaijan … intersection with a mathematically inferred spheroid/ellipsoid/geoid/datum establishes the Height (Z) from the center of the earth to any point on the earth’s surface` … intersection with a mathematically inferred spheroid/ellipsoid/geoid/datum establishes the Height (Z) from the center of the earth to any point on the earth’s surface` Height (Z) 40 o N Latitude (Y) 50 o E Longitude (X) #2 Universal Spatial Key (Cartesian coordinate system) Earth’s Center Earth’s Surface (Berry)

…that form a complex Address Code (x,y,z) for spatial reference of any record in a database that can be used to join any other spatially referenced table– Spatially-enabled Universal Key #2 Universal Spatial Key (grid space as key) Entire 3D volume containing the earth is pre-partitioned into small Grid Elements using basic geometry equations… 100km, 10km, …1m gridlines WHERE is WHAT (Berry)

Consistent distances and adjacency to surrounding grid elements Consistent distances and adjacency to surrounding grid elements Inconsistent distances and adjacency to surrounding grid elements (Orthogonal and Diagonal) Inconsistent distances and adjacency to surrounding grid elements (Orthogonal and Diagonal) Tightly Clustered Groupings Continuous Nested Grid Elements Cubic Grid (26 facets) Square Grid (8 facets) Hexagonal Grid (6 facets) Hexagon Dodecahedral Grid (12 facets) Dodecahedral #3 Alternative Geographic Referencing 2D Grid Element (Planimetric) Square 3D Grid Element (Volumetric) Cube Cartesian Coordinate System Square Cube (Berry)

A Peek at the Bleeding Edge (2010 and beyond) Multimedia Mapping (IV -2000s) Revisit Analytics (VI -2020s) GIS Modeling (III -1990s) Computer Mapping (Decade I -1970s) Spatial dB Mgt (II -1980s) The Early Years Contemporary GIS Future Directions Revisit Geo-reference (V -2010s) Mapping focus Data/Structure focus Analysis focus …but those who live by the Crystal Ball are bound to eat ground glass Evan Vlachos (Berry)

Revamping Geographic Referencing 1) Geo-Referencing …2) data structure Cartesian Coordinate System HexagonDodecahedron The Cartesian Coordinate System based on rectangular grid referencing will be replaced by Hexagon and Dodecahedron (Berry)

Revamping Map Analysis Map Analysis Spatial Analysis— 1) recoding of all operations to take advantage of increased precision/accuracy in the new geo- referencing and data structures; 2) incorporate dynamic influences on effective movement/connectivity (e.g., direction, accumulation, momentum); and 3) uncertainty and error propagation handing for all analytical processing. Spatial Statistics— 1) uncertainty and error propagation handing for all analytical processing; 2) CART, Induction and Neural Networks techniques requiring large N will replace traditional multivariate data analysis; and 3) grid-cell will become the de facto primary key for database referencing /analysis (vector for mapping). Geo-referencing and Data Structure Geo-referencing and Data Structure advances will lead to revised/new techniques in… 2) Data Structure …1) geo-referencing 3D GIS4D GIS 5D GIS Traditional 3D GIS (X,Y and Attribute) to 4D GIS (X,Y,Z and Attribute) and possibly to 5D GIS (X,Y,Z,Time and Attribute) …emphasis on Data Accuracy (vs. Precision) (Berry)

Dominant Human Forces (three game changers) #1 The “-ists” and the “-ologists” — a continuing “Tool” versus “Science” dichotomy of perspective of what GIS is and isn’t #1 The “-ists” and the “-ologists” — a continuing “Tool” versus “Science” dichotomy of perspective of what GIS is and isn’t The “-ists” focus a GIS specialist’s command of the tools needed to display, query and process spatial data. The “-ologists,” focus on users (e.g., ecologists, sociologists, hydrologists, epidemiologists, etc.) who understand the science behind the spatial relationships. The “-ists” focus a GIS specialist’s command of the tools needed to display, query and process spatial data. The “-ologists,” focus on users (e.g., ecologists, sociologists, hydrologists, epidemiologists, etc.) who understand the science behind the spatial relationships. The Softer Side if GIS the data-centric perspective of the specialists (mapping and geo-query) dominated the analysis-centric needs of the managers, policy and decision makers (spatial reasoning and modeling) #2 The Softer Side if GIS — the data-centric perspective of the specialists (mapping and geo-query) dominated the analysis-centric needs of the managers, policy and decision makers (spatial reasoning and modeling) #3 Enlarging GIS Education — need to engage applied “domain expertise” in GIS education through outreach across campus that is as important (and quite possibly more important) than honing technical skills of core professionals #3 Enlarging GIS Education — need to engage applied “domain expertise” in GIS education through outreach across campus that is as important (and quite possibly more important) than honing technical skills of core professionals The “Bookends “ are currently driving GIS (Berry)

TechnologyExperts “-ists” DomainExperts “-ologists” Solution Space Together the “-ists” and the “-ologists” frame and develop the Solution for an application. …understand the “tools” that can be used to display, query and analyze spatial data Data and Information focus …understand the “science” behind spatial relationships that can be used for decision-making Knowledge and Wisdom focus The “-ists ” The “-ologists ” — and — #1 The “-ists” and the “-ologists” (Berry)

“Policy Makers” “Stakeholders” “Decision Makers” Decision Makers utilize the Solution under Stakeholder, Policy & Public auspices. TechnologyExperts “-ists” DomainExperts “-ologists” SolutionSpace Application Space Geotechnology’s Core #1 The “-ists” and the “-ologists” (a larger tent) (Berry)

Knowledge (interrelationships among relevant facts) Wisdom (actionable knowledge) Philosopher’s Progression of Understanding — Data (all facts) Information (facts within a context) … GeoExploration emphasizes tools for data access and visualization (general user) Mapping focus … GeoScience emphasizes tools for spatial reasoning and understanding of spatial patterns and relationships (application specialist) Data/Structure and Analysis focus #2 The Softer Side of GIS (Berry)

Philosopher's Levels of Understanding Data – all facts Information – facts within a context Knowledge – interrelationships among relevant facts Wisdom – actionable knowledge Prescription  Increasing Abstraction — Description Cognitive Levels of Judgment Facts – Earth circumference is 24,900 mi – Britney Spears was born 12/2/1981 – Britney Spears is 25 years old – the temperature is 32 o F : Relevant Facts – the temperature is 32 o F Perception – it sure is cold (Floridian) – it sure is nice (Alaskan) Opinions/Values – I hate this weather (Floridian) – I love this weather (Alaskan) Spatial Processing Collect – direct acquisition of primary information (e.g. elevation) Calculate – uses algorithms to derive secondary information (e.g., slope) Calibrate/Weight – translates information into relative scales (preference & importance) Simulate – “what if” investigation of alternative scenarios (multiple perspectives) Map Types Base – measured features, conditions and characteristics (fact) Derived – inferred conditions and characteristics (implied fact) Interpreted – adjusted to reflect expertise and presumption (judgment) Modeled – potential solution within model logic and expression (conjoined judgment) #2 The Softer Side of GIS (within a GIS context) (Berry)

 Social Acceptability as 3 rd filter #2 The Softer Side of GIS (the NR experience) Podium Historically Ecosystem Sustainability and Economic Viability have dominated Natural Resources discussion, policy and management. But Social Acceptability has become the critical third filter needed for successful decision-making. Spatial Reasoning, Dialog and Consensus Building Increasing Social Science & Public Involvement 1970s2010s Inter-disciplinary Science Team Table(Berry)

…for geotechnology to achieve its Mega-technology future, the non-GIS community must become involved in spatial rea soning (map analysis and modeling) must become involved in spatial rea soning (map analysis and modeling) Computer Programmer– …develops GIS tools; …mostly computer science skills with some experience in GIS Solutions Developer– …develops applications that link GIS to real-world problems; …mostly GIS/CS background with some discipline expertise Systems Manager– …develops and maintains spatial databases and connections within (LAN) and outside (Internet) the organization; …CS and GIS balance Data Provider– …develops GIS databases; …good skills in GPS and Remote Sensing with strong skills in GIS data formats and geodetic referencing GIS Specialist– …interacts with other GIS professionals and users to implement spatial solutions; …GIS with considerable discipline expertise GeneralUser– …applies GIS operations, techniques, procedures and models to address real world processes in support of decision- making; …strong discipline expertise with GIS awareness The “Bookends “ are currently driving GIS #3 Enlarging GIS Education (historical evolution) (Berry)

Where From Here? (Berry) …where will you be in GIS 10 years from now? …keep in touch!!!