Machine Learning and Optimization For Traffic and Emergency Resource Management. Milos Hauskrecht Department of Computer Science University of Pittsburgh Students: Branislav Kveton, Tomas Singliar UPitt collaborators: Louise Comfort, JS Lin External: Eli Upfal (Brown), Carlos Guestrin (CMU)
S-CITI related projects Modeling multivariate distributions of traffic variables Optimization of (emergency) resources over unreliable transportation network Traffic monitoring and traffic incident detection Optimization of distributed systems with discrete and continuous variables: Traffic light control
S-CITI related projects Modeling multivariate distributions of traffic variables Optimization of (emergency) resources over unreliable transportation network Traffic monitoring and traffic incident detection Optimization of control of distributed systems with discrete and continuous variables: Traffic light control
Traffic network PITTSBURGH Traffic network systems are stochastic (things happen at random) distributed (at many places concurrently) Modeling and computational challenges Very complex structure Involved interactions High dimensionality
Challenges Modeling the behavior of a large stochastic system Represent relations between traffic variables Inference (Answer queries about model) Estimate congestion in unobserved area using limited information Useful for a variety of optimization tasks Learning (Discovering the model automatically) Interaction patterns not known Expert knowledge difficult to elicit Use Data Our solutions: probabilistic graphical models, statistical Machine learning methods
Road traffic data We use PennDOT sensor network 155 sensors for volume and speed every 5 minutes
Models of traffic data Local interactions Markov random field Effects are circular Solution: Break the cycles
The all-independent assumption Unrealistic!
Mixture of trees A tree structure retains many dependencies but still loses some Have many trees to represent interactions
Latent variable model A combination of latent factors represent interactions
Four projects Modeling multivariate distributions of traffic variables Optimization of (emergency) resources over unreliable transportation network Traffic monitoring and traffic incident detection Optimization of distributed systems with discrete and continuous variables: Traffic light control
Optimizations in unreliable transportation networks Unreliable network – connections (or nodes) may fail E.g. traffic congestion, power line failure
Optimizations in unreliable transportation networks Unreliable network – connections (nodes) may fail more than one connection may go down to
Optimizations in unreliable transportation networks Unreliable network – connections (nodes) may fail many connections may go down together
Optimizations in unreliable transportation networks Unreliable network – connections (nodes) may fail parts of the network may become disconnected
Optimizations of resources in unreliable transportation networks Example: emergency system. Emergency vehicles use the network system to get from one location to the other
Optimizations of resources in unreliable transportation networks One failure here won’t prevent us from reaching the target, though the path taken can be longer
Optimizations of resources in unreliable transportation networks Two failures can get the two nodes disconnected
Optimizations of resources in unreliable transportation networks Emergencies can occur at different locations and they can come with different priorities
Optimizations of resources in unreliable transportation networks … considering all possible emergencies, it may be better to change the initial location of the vehicle to get a better coverage
Optimizations of resources in unreliable transportation networks … If emergencies are concurrent and/or some connections are very unreliable it may be better to use two vehicles …
Optimizations of resources in unreliable transportation networks where to place the vehicles and how many of them to achieve the coverage with the best expected cost-benefit tradeoff ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Solving the problem A two stage stochastic program with recourse Problem stages: 1.Find optimal allocations of resources (em. vehicles) 2.Match (repeatedly) emergency demands with allocated vehicles after failures occur Curse of dimensionality: many possible failure configurations in the second stage Our solution: Stochastic (MC) approximations (UAI-2001, UAI-2003) Current: adapt to continuous random quantities (congestion rates,traffic flows and their relations)
Four projects Modeling multivariate distributions of traffic variables Optimization of (emergency) resources over unreliable transportation network Traffic monitoring and traffic incident detection Optimization of distributed systems with discrete and continuous variables: Traffic light control
Incident detection on dynamic data incident no incident
Incident detection algorithms Incidents detected indirectly through caused congestion State of the art: California 2 algorithm If OCC(up) – OCC(down) > T1, next step If [OCC(up) – OCC(down)]/ OCC(up) > T2, next step If [OCC(up) – OCC(down)]/ OCC(down) > T3, possible accident If previous condition persists for another time step, sound alarm Hand-calibrated for the specific section of the road Occupancy spikesOccupancy falls
Incident detection algorithms Machine Learning approach (ICML 2006) Use a set of simple feature detectors and learn the classifier from the data Improved performance California 2 SVM based model
Four projects Modeling multivariate distributions of traffic variables Optimization of (emergency) resources over unreliable transportation network Traffic monitoring and traffic incident detection Optimization of control of distributed systems with discrete and continuous variables: Traffic light control
Dynamic traffic management A set of intersections A set of connection (roads) in between intersections Traffic lights regulating the traffic flow on roads Traffic lights are controlled independently Objective: coordinate traffic lights to minimize congestions and maximize the throughput
Solutions Problems: how to model the dynamic behavior of the system how to optimize the plans Our solutions (NIPS 03,ICAPS 04, UAI 04, IJCAI 05, ICAPS 06, AAAI 06) Model: Factored hybrid Markov decision processes continuous and discrete variables Optimization: Hybrid Approximate Linear Programming optimizations over 30 dimensional continuous state spaces and 25 dimensional action spaces Goals: hundreds of state and action variables
Thank you Questions