Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney RUSSIA UNDER PUTIN 2.0 AS AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYER School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Dr Alexey D Muraviev Coordinator, International Relations & National Security programs Director, Strategic Flashlight forum

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Medvedev’s Legacy Signing the new START in Prague, 8 April 2010 President Medvedev on board the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier  Major foreign policy achievements Strengthening Russia’s international stance Effective mitigation of the Georgia war fallout Signature and ratification of the new START Admission in WTO  Medvedev as Supreme C-in-C Swift military reforms Emphasis on force modernisation and capability upgrade Victory in the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages The Defence Vector under Putin Putin and the T-50 prototype of the fifth-generation fighter, 2010 “Our country faces the task of sufficiently developing its military potential as part of a deterrence strategy. This is an indispensable condition for Russia to feel secure and for our partners to listen to our country's arguments.”  A vital element of national power ‘The Army has saved Russia’ Making international partners respect Russia OPK as a key element of national industrial potential  Rebuilding effective military power Strategic nuclear deterrence ABM and space defence Ocean going navy New cyber command

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Putin’s site published ‘Russia in the Changing World’ on 27 February  Major challenges NATO’s eastward expansion/ABM Unilateralism/undermining the power of UN The ‘Arab Spring’ syndrome Iran, North Korea and WMD proliferation Afghanistan  The European Factor Maximum preferences in energy supplies Creating ‘harmonious commonwealth of economics from Lisbon to Vladivostok’ Putin’s Foreign Policy Vision  The US Factor Underdeveloped potential US needs to see in Russia an equal and respectful partner  Economic and humanitarian diplomacy “Russia’s territory - the source of its potential strength…, under the right economic strategy, they [vast territories] may become the key foundation of the increase of [the nation’s] competitiveness.”

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages The Asian Vector Putin’s visit to Beijing, October 2011  The Pacific vector China as the core element Large-scale joint naval exercises in April, May  The Indian Ocean vector India Defence cooperation Joint investment projects Common regional and international agenda  Regional frameworks The Shanghai Group BRICS “The aims of our foreign policy have strategic, non-conjuncture character and reflect Russia’s unique place on the world’s political map, its role in the history, development of the civilisation.”

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Transport Security Agenda The North-South Transport Corridor

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Principal Challenges in Asia  Russia as a Indo-Pacific player A lengthy period of disengagement Absence of a clearly articulated regional strategy  The China Factor At the core of regional approach  Torn between Europe and Asia Identifying strategic priorities  Weakened potential Economic Military Demographic  Domestic issues Declining population Underdeveloped infrastructure Tyranny of distance Corruption and organised crime  Scepticism and suspicion Difficult international partner

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages The Afghan Vector Transporting ISAF cargo by rail via RussiaAirport Ulyanovsk-Vostochny, Central Russia

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages The Antarctic Vector Russian Orthodox Trinity Church, Antarctica Russian airfield in Antarctica  Fixation on pole politics Russian discovery in 1821 Low key activities in the 1990s Sergei Ivanov’s visit in March 2008 Developing a road map  Moscow’s Antarctic Strategy Modernisation of existing polar stations Construction of a purpose-built research fleet Special funding 60.5 bn rubles = US$ 16.9 bn

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Space Agenda Floating space-launch facility Sea Launch

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Russia in the Indo-Pacific  Future trends Continuity under Putin 2.0 Indo-Pacific in the context of Russia’s wider Asia strategy China will remain Russia’s barometer of regional engagement India as a strategic anchor Central and South Asian affairs = Afghanistan SCO, BRICS

Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology CRICOS Provider Code 00301J QUESTIONS? School of Social Sciences and Asian Languages Russia under Putin 2.0 as an International Player Dr Alexey D Muraviev Phone: (+61 8)