Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point? Dr Paul Marshall Director – Climate Change Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

Healthy reef

Bleached reef

Damaged reef

Degraded reef

Is management futile? Pre-climate change Worst-case scenario Reef condition temperature

Pre-climate change Worst-case scenario Reef condition temperature Best-case scenario RESILIENCE Is management futile?

A framework for management action 1. Understand problem Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 2. Identify strategies for reducing risk Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors 3. Prioritise adaptation activities Climate Change Adaptation Plan 4. Build resilience Implementation

Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment

Introduction Vulnerability of species and species groups Vulnerability of GBR habitats Enabling management The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) Climate and climate change on the GBR Oceanography and climate change Resilience, climate change & the GBR Marine microbes Plankton Macroalgae Seagrasses Mangroves & tidal wetlands Reef-building corals Benthic invertebrates Fishes Sharks & Rays Seabirds Marine reptiles Marine mammals Coral reefs Pelagic systems Coasts and estuaries Islands and cays Geomorphological features Palaeoecology Industries and communities Vulnerability & management implications Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment

Prioritising management Humans

Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Prioritising management

Resilience Analysis (corals) Marshall & Schuttenberg 2007

New science Reducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold Wooldridge and Done, 2009

Adaptation Plan

Adapting management 1.Manage for process, not just state Restore water quality Protect key functional groups Protect refugia/critical habitats Restore resilience of important components Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com.Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com

2.Effectively prioritise effort & resources Urgency Importance Feasibility Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity CostValues Management Priority Adapting management

3.Manage for social-ecological resilience Resource-dependency Climate change as a common enemy Converting stakeholders to champions Adapting management

Key messages 1.GHGs must be stabilised 2.Management has never been more important 3.Management needs to adapt Resilience focus Triage Partnerships 4.Climate change is an opportunity, too