- 0 - Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge Arun Maira 2011 EAM – Conference Bengaluru, 27 June, 2011

- 1 - Forces of Change : Information; Ideas Tools for Progress : Institutions, Innovation Agency for Change : Leadership Shaping the Future In a Global Web of Knowledge Challenges: Inclusive; Sustainable

- 2 - THE WORLD IN 2035 ? RISING DEMAND FOR BASIC RIGHTS DEMOCRAC Y HUMAN RIGHTS DEMOCRAC Y HUMAN RIGHTS Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “ MDG ” (2000)

- 3 - THE WORLD IN 2035 ? PEOPLE ARE NOT IN THE DARK DEMOCRAC Y HUMAN RIGHTS DEMOCRAC Y HUMAN RIGHTS ACCESS TO INFORMATION ACCESS TO INFORMATION Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “ MDG ” (2000) Cellphones : Elite to Masses India : 2000 < 5m 2010 > 750 m Google – daily hits 1997 – Zero 2009 > 700m

- 4 - THE WORLD IN 2035 ? EXCEEDING THE CAPACITY OF THE EARTH DEMOCRACY HUMAN RIGHTS DEMOCRACY HUMAN RIGHTS CLIMAT E CHANGE CLIMAT E CHANGE ACCESS TO INFORMATIO N ACCESS TO INFORMATIO N Cellphones : Elite to Masses India : 2000 < 5m 2010 > 750 m Google – daily hits 1997 – Zero 2009 > 700m Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “ MDG ” (2000) Mankind's global footprint 1960 : 60% of global bio- capacity 2007 : 130%

- 5 - THE WORLD IN 2035 ? GROWTH IS NOT INCLUSIVE DEMOCRAC Y HUMAN RIGHTS DEMOCRAC Y HUMAN RIGHTS CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ACCESS TO INFORMATIO N ACCESS TO INFORMATIO N CAPITALISM FREE MARKETS CAPITALISM FREE MARKETS "Wealth of Bill Gates and Warren Buffet equals the wealth of the 100 million poorest Americans" Cellphones : Elite to Masses India : 2000 < 5m 2010 > 750 m Google – daily hits 1997 – Zero 2009 > 700m Autocracies 1977:89; 2009:23 Concept of “ MDG ” 2000) Mankind's global footprint 1960 : 60% of global bio- capacity 2007 : 130%

- 6 - REINVENTING THE WHEEL OF PROGRESS INNOVATION GROWTH IS NOT INCLUSIVE EXCEEDING THE CAPACITY OF THE EARTH EXCEEDING THE CAPACITY OF THE EARTH UPRISING FOR BASIC RIGHTS PEOPLE ARE NOT IN THE DARK

- 7 - CONFLICTING INSTITUTIONS MULTI-NATIONAL CORPORATIONS 'TRIBES'/HUMAN BEINGS COUNTRIES BUSINESS INSTITUTIONS SOCIO- POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS COMMUNITIES TRUST RESPECT CONSTITUTIONS LEGAL CONTRACTS INFORMATION FLOWS CONNECTIVITY HUMAN RIGHTS/DEMOCRACY MARKETS/CAPITALISM

- 8 - NEW SKILLS FOR LEADERS WHAT MAY HAPPEN? Diversity of interests and capabilities of multiple stakeholders Diversity of interests and capabilities of multiple stakeholders WHO IS THE BOSS? Challenge in setting direction Challenge in setting direction Challenge in coordination Challenge in coordination Increasing unpredictability due to global complexity

- 9 - GDP vs GDP per capita in 2050 GDP vs GDP per capita in 2002 GDP (US$ Bn) GDP per capita (US$) INDIA RISING A Large Economy of Poor People GDP (US$ Bn) GDP per capita (US$) US Japan China India UK Germany Italy France Brazil Russia China US Brazil Italy GermanyFrance Russia UK Japan India Bubble size corresponds to GDP size Source: Goldman Sachs Economic Paper # 99, BCG Analysis

~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18 THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18 THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND 45% of Indian children malnourished (almost half of the world’s malnourished children)

~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18 THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND Less than 40% of Indian children complete school (Std X) - Only 75% to Class V 45% of Indian children malnourished (almost half of the world’s malnourished children)

~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18 THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND Less than 40% of Indian children complete school (Std X) - Only 75% to Class V Only 31% of Indians have adequate sanitation facilities 45% of Indian children malnourished (almost half of the world’s malnourished children)

~ 480 Million people are under the age of 18 THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND Less than 40% of Indian children complete school (Std X) - Only 75% to Class V Only 31% of Indians have adequate sanitation facilities 139m Indians do not have “access” to safe drinking water 45% of Indian children malnourished (almost half of the world’s malnourished children )

WHICH WAY INDIA ? Models of Change and Leadership Engaging a diverse nation democratically in the quest for inclusive, sustainable growth

BUFFALOES WALLOWING Inclusive growth and development Isolation from the world Exclusive growth and development “ ATAKTA BHARAT ” : INDIA GETTING STUCK Integration with the world

Inclusive growth and development Isolation from the world Exclusive growth and development BOLLY WORLD Integration with the world WOLVES PROWLINGBIRDS SCRAMBLING

Inclusive growth and development Isolation for the world Exclusive growth and development “ PAHALE INDIA ” : INDIA FIRST Integration with the world FIREFLIES ARISING

Fireflies Arising STRATEGIES - Enable children and women to access relevant knowledge through new technology - Facilitate local initiatives - Strengthen infrastructure - Develop new models and skills of leadership - Propagate successful stories and build confidence SOUND MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK Peacocks Strutting Wolves Prowling Buffaloes Wallowing APPROACH PROPOSED (IN 2000 )

FIREFLIES ARISING MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India)

FIREFLIES ARISING MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS 2012 : 60 million (Est) 2009 : 23 million 2007 : 10 million (Source : Lok Capital) MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India)

FIREFLIES ARISING Enrolments in Emerging India Awards for SMEs * 2010 : 300, : 5,000 Credit to SMEs increased five fold in last 5 years MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India) MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS 2012 : 60 million (Est) 2009 : 23 million 2007 : 10 million (Source : Lok Capital)

FIREFLIES ARISING BANK LINKED SELF- HELP GROUPS (March ’ 10) 6.9 million, of which 5.3 million women groups (Source : NABARD) MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS 2010 : 752 m 2008 : 275 m 2004 : 34 m 2000 : 2 m (Source : Telephone Regulatory Authority of India) MICRO FINANCE CLIENTS 2012 : 60 million (Est) 2009 : 23 million 2007 : 10 million (Source : Lok Capital) Enrolments in Emerging India Awards for SMEs * 2010 : 300, : 5,000 Credit to SMEs increased five fold in last 5 years

LEADER : HE (OR SHE) WHO TAKES THE FIRST STEPS TOWARDS A GOAL HE DEEPLY CARES ABOUT, AND IN WAYS THAT OTHERS WISH TO FOLLOW