“You don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities” (if Fred Smith would have tried to fix the post office he wouldn’t have created FedEx) John Naisbitt Mindset, 2006 “Every single social and global issue of our day is a business opportunity in disguise.” Peter Drucker © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Anticipating Change… To Make Better Decisions about the Future © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Connecting Scenarios and Strategic Response  How can bridge the gap between Scenarios and Strategic Response? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Identify a lot of implications Change 1 st Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

May Solve Problem A May Worsen Situation B May Produce New Opportunity C May Create Entirely New Problem D © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Explore for Opportunities Change 1 st Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 1 st Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 2nd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication 3rd Order Implication Create Collisions © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Innovation-Based Response Strategies Addressing Emerging Needs Addressing Emerging Constraints © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Innovation-Based Response Strategies Addressing Emerging Needs Addressing Emerging Constraints © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Empathy… …with the Future User Seeing the world through the Eyes of others Understanding the world through their Experiences Feeling the world through their Emotions Tim Brown President/CEO of IDEO Change By Design © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Framing The Implications Assessment Which industries or sectors will care? Focus on assessing implications from their perspective(s) Who is your Future User? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

New Perspectives for Gaining Empathy  “Arthritis Glove” (Georgia Tech) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

New Perspectives for Gaining Empathy “Pot-in-Pot” Refrigerator Keeps food cold with no electricity $100,000 Rolex Award winner © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Reverse Innovation i.e. Invert Figure-Ground to identify universal needs “Create Far From Home, Win Everywhere” © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

New Perspectives for Serving Emerging Markets - Graying Planet OXO Good Grips “Universal Design” 1990 – 15 skus 2010 – 850 skus sku = stock keeping unit (i.e. shelf item) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

New Perspectives for Serving Emerging Markets - Graying Planet “Bionic” mobility innovations for the physically disabled © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Innovation-Based Response Strategies Addressing Emerging Needs Addressing Emerging Constraints © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Sustainability as a Key Driver of Innovation Innovation-Based Response Strategies © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

1. Viewing Compliance as an Opportunity Sustainability as a Key Driver of Innovation Five Stages Of Change Source: Nidumolu, et. al, 2009 How Does Regulatory Compliance Factor Into The Future of Your Project Topic? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

1.Viewing Compliance as an Opportunity 2.Making Value Chains Sustainable Sustainability as a Key Driver of Innovation Five Stages Of Change Where are the untapped opportunities for collaboration in the value chain? Suppliers Customers Operations © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

1.Viewing Compliance as an Opportunity 2.Making Value Chains Sustainable 3.Designing Sustainable Products and Services 4.Developing New Business Models 5.Creating Next-Practice Platforms Sustainability as a Key Driver of Innovation Five Stages Of Change What are the emerging criteria for future product and business model design? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Re-envisioning Business In The Era of Sustainable Value Natural Capitalism 1.Radical Resource Productivity 2.Bio-Inspired Production Models (Biomimicry) 3.Solutions-Based (Service & Flow) Business Models 4.Invest in Natural Capital © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Percentage of gasoline’s energy used to move a car’s passengers Historical rate of improvement in energy inputs per unit of production Amount of material flows still in use 6 months after sale Natural Capitalism: Radical Resource Productivity { { { 1% © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Energy Independence and Security Act 2007 Radical Resource Productivity 35 mpg by 2020 (<3.5% per year) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Natural Capitalism: Bio-Inspired Production Models (Biomimicry) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Waste = Food Bio-Inspired Production Models - Elimination of the Concept of Waste © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

An example Cradle To Cradle Design big-abc-news/more-mere-magic-mushrooms html © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

The Rules of Nature 1.There Is No Away 2.The Sun’s Energy Drives Everything 3.Photosynthesis Pays The Bills 4.There is No Such Thing As Waste 5.Don’t Foul Your Nest Adapted from: Sustainability Primer- Step by Natural Step, The Natural Step, 2009 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Natural Capitalism: Solutions-Based Business Models Evergreen Carpet Lease © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Natural Capitalism: Invest In Natural Capital Nearly 100 for-profit corporations engaged in habitat restoration Investing in hydro powered server sites in Oregon (think they have a vested interest in preserving the watershed?) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Team Exercise Go back to your Futures Wheel outcomes and explore additional implications and collisions around your scenarios. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Quiz #3 Review Session TBD Review Sheet is Posted Upcoming Class… © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.