Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique Is Nova Scotia Making Genuine Progress? An Overview of Some Key Trends Halifax, 30 October, 2008

Defining Genuine Progress Are there consensus values on the kind of Nova Scotia we want to leave our children? Health and wellbeing, safety and security, decent living standards, educated populace, access and inclusion, healthy environment and natural resources, strong and caring communities Beyond ideology

From indicators to accounts What distinguishes GPI from other wellbeing indicator systems = adds economic valuation component -> moves towards accounting system = In line with 5 capitals in OSP, which recognizes that social, human, and natural capital also have value ->accounting framework And EGSPA: Recognizing “the economic value of Nova Scotia’s environmental assets is essential to our long-term prosperity.”

-> A new accounting system This new accounting framework allows assessment of full economic, social, and environmental costs and benefits, & of cost- effectiveness of alternative policy options vs existing accounting system: Social, human, natural capital ignored; and their depletion misleadingly measured as gain; + anything can make economy grow regardless of OSP/Weaving Threads goals

A mixed picture Improvements in employment, real income, income equity (inclusion), poverty reduction, provincial debt status, waste and air quality (20-year timeline), smoking rate, GHGs….. Declines or insufficient progress (in relation to targets) in agriculture, forests, fisheries, ecological footprint, energy shift, wealth equity, obesity, volunteering, student debt.…. Just a few examples follow:

Official unemployment rates, Canada and Nova Scotia,

Official unemployment rates by region, Nova Scotia, 2001 to 2007

Disposable Household Income (Richest : Poorest 20%) Canada and Provinces, ($2004) Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC

Average disposable (after-tax) economic family income by quintile, adjusted for family size, Canada and Nova Scotia, ($2006) CANADA 1 st quintile$11,500$12,600$12,800$12,600$11,800$13,900$15,100 2 nd quintile$20,600$21,900$21,600$21,200$20,800$23,900$25,300 3rd quintile$27,600$29,000$28,600$28,000$28,100$31,900$34,100 4 th quintile$36,200$37,700$37,000$36,600$36,800$42,000$45,000 5 th quintile$57,500 $58,500$58,100$59,600$71,400$75,400 NOVA SCOTIA 1 st quintile$10,800$10,700$11,300$11,900$10,800$12,900$15,200 2 nd quintile$17,500$17,900$18,500$19,300$18,700$21,200$23,900 3 rd quintile$22,700$23,800$24,200$24,900$24,700$28,200$31,100 4 th quintile$28,800$30,300$31,800$32,100$32,400$36,500$39,900 5 th quintile$43,500$46,300$50,700$49,000$50,300$61,900$62,900

Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs base), total population, Canada and Nova Scotia,

Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs base), selected groups, Nova Scotia,

Gini coefficients of after-tax income, all family units (economic families and unattached individuals), Canada and provinces, 1981 to Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC

Civic and voluntary work, average hours per year, total population, 15 years and older, Canada and provinces, 1992, 1998, and 2005

Free Time, Nova Scotia and Canada, 1992,1998, 2005 (hours per day)

Share of population indicating high time stress, NS and Canada, 1998 & GSS %2005 GSS % MALE Nova Scotia Rest of Canada FEMALE Nova Scotia Rest of Canada TOTAL Nova Scotia Rest of Canada

Crime rate, total incidents per 100,000 population, Canada and Nova Scotia,

Crime rate comparison: NS and Canada rates of increase, (1962=100)

Crime rates (per 100,000 population), by offence breakdown, Nova Scotia, Crime cost = $700 million/year +

Youth crime rate per 100,000, aged 12-17, Canada, provinces and territories, 2006 VIOLENT CRIMEPROPERTY CRIMEOTHER CRIMINAL CODE TOTAL CRIMINAL CODE* Canada1,5282,5342,8326,885 NL1,6202,9154,2458,780 Prince Edward Island1,3323,8364,2359,403 Nova Scotia2,2723,6875,15411,113 New Brunswick1,6802,7424,0108,432 Quebec1,1101,5121,1433,765 Ontario1,4382,4552,0635,956 Manitoba2,7093,3955,03711,140 Saskatchewan3,4666,31610,15619,939 Alberta1,5903,0574,0788,725 British Columbia1,2542,1833,0016,438 Yukon4,5246,15514,86825,547 Northwest Territories7,74414,39122,49244,627 Nunavut5,63511,37414,15231,161

Change (Percent) in Total After-Tax Income (1999–2004) and Median Debt Value (1999–2005), Canada

Net Worth by Wealth Quintile ($ Trillions, 2005 Constant $), Canada, 1999 and 2005

Share of Wealth (Percent), by Net Worth Quintile, Canada, 1999 and 2005

Current Youth Smokers, aged 15– 24, Canada and NS, 1999–2005

Percentage Decline in Tobacco Use, Canada & Provinces,

Measured obesity rates by province, aged 18+, 2004

Overweight and obesity rates by province, children, aged 2 -17, 2004

Percentage of population aged 12 and over diagnosed with asthma, both sexes, Canada and provinces, 2007

Average amount of government student debt at time of graduation ($2000 CDN), Classes of 1990, 1995, and 2000, Canada

Percentile scores of correct answers to general political knowledge questions, by age group, 1984, 1993, 1997, 2000

Total Farm Cash Receipts, NS, 1971–2007 (Millions of $2007)

Total Net Farm Income, Nova Scotia, 1971–2007 (millions of $2007)

Expense to Income Ratio (%), Nova Scotia Farms, 1971–2006

Total Net Farm Income and Total Debt, NS Farms, (millions of $2007)

Debt to Net Income Ratio, Nova Scotia Farms, 1971–2006

Solvency Ratio, Nova Scotia, QC, and Canadian farms, 1971–2006

Fishery GDP for Nova Scotia, (1997$ millions)

Value of cod stocks, Eastern Scotian Shelf region, , (2007$ millions).

Lobster landings in Nova Scotia, (metric tonnes)

Mean trophic level (weighted by landed weight) in Nova Scotia Fisheries,

Estimated total biomass of porbeagle shark in the northwest Atlantic, 1961, 1991 and 2001

Employment trend in Nova Scotia fisheries,

Age distribution of Nova Scotian fishers,

Protected areas, Nova Scotia, 2007 TYPE OF PROTECTED AREATOTAL (HA) 34 Wilderness Areas294, Nature Reserves4,123 2 National Parks and 5 National Wildlife Areas 137,379 Provincial Parks and Park Reserves33,000 National Heritage RiversN/A Total Area Protected469,453 Percentage of Total Provincial land (5.5 million ha) 8.5% (interim target 12%)

Total area harvested and area clearcut, Nova Scotia, , (hectares)

Percentage of area harvested by clearcutting,

Value-added per cubic metre of wood harvested, by province, 1998 & 2004, ($2007) PROVINCEVALUE-ADDED (PER M 3 OF WOOD HARVESTED)1998 VALUE –ADDED (PER M 3 OF WOOD HARVESTED)2004 NFLD$50$121 PEI$39$54 NS$127$107 NB*$156$176 QC$260$241 ON$374$367 MAN$123$425 SASK$79$142 ALTA*$113$137 BC$133$117 CANADA$205$183

Nova Scotia Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (kt of CO2 equivalents),

Per capita GHG emissions, Canada, provinces, territories, 2006 (kt of CO 2 equivalents)

2006 NS greenhouse gas emissions broken down by sector (kt of CO2 equivalents) Greenhouse Gas Source Category 2006 Emissions Percent of Total Energy Total % Electricity Generation614031% Fossil Fuel Industries9505% Commercial/Institutional17609% Residential11006% Transportation Total570029% Road transport386020% Agriculture4802% Waste5203% Nova Scotia Total %

Major sources of GHG emissions, Nova Scotia, 2006

NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) , compared to NS EGSPA target for 2020

NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) , cf Suzuki Fdn. emissions target for 2020

Cumulative potential damage cost avoidance through achieving the NS Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on graduated emission reductions from ) Year EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)Suzuki Target (25% below 1990) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Damage Cost Avoidance (C$2005 millions) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Damage Cost Avoidance (C$2005 millions) $36 per tonne$1,230 per tonne $36 per tonne$1,230 per tonne ,000$14.3$ ,000$22.4$ ,000$28.6$976.61,244,000$44.8$1, ,191,000$42.9$1,464.91,866,000$67.2$2, ,588,000$57.2$1,953.22,488,000$89.6$3, ,985,000$71.5$2,441.63,110,000$112.0$3, ,382,000$85.8$2,929.93,732,000$134.4$4, ,779,000$100.0$3,418.24,354,000$156.7$5, ,176,000$114.3$3,906.54,976,000$179.1$6, ,573,000$128.6$4,394.85,598,000$201.5$6, ,970,000$142.9$4,883.16,218,000$223.8$7, ,367,000$157.2$5,371.46,840,000$246.2$8, ,764,000$171.5$5,859.77,462,000$268.6$9, ,161,000$185.8$6,348.08,084,000$291.0$9,943.3 Total 36,127,000$1,300.6$44, ,594,000$2,037.4$69,610.6

Cumulative potential co-benefits through achieving the NS Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on graduated emission reductions from ) Year EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)Suzuki Target (25% below 1990) Emission Reductio n (tonnes) Co-Benefits (C$2005 millions) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Co-Benefits (C$2005 millions) $13 per tonne$20 per tonne$13 per tonne$20 per tonne ,000$5.2$7.9622,000$8.1$ ,000$10.3$15.91,244,000$16.2$ ,191,000$15.5$23.81,866,000$24.3$ ,588,000$20.6$31.82,488,000$32.3$ ,985,000$25.8$39.73,110,000$40.4$ ,382,000$31.0$47.63,732,000$48.5$ ,779,000$36.1$55.64,354,000$56.6$ ,176,000$41.3$63.54,976,000$64.7$ ,573,000$46.4$71.55,598,000$72.8$ ,970,000$51.6$79.46,218,000$80.8$ ,367,000$56.8$87.36,840,000$88.9$ ,764,000$61.9$95.37,462,000$97.0$ ,161,000$67.1$103.28,084,000$105.1$161.7 Total 36,127,000$469.7$ ,594,000$735.7$1,131.9

Control cost estimates of meeting the NS Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on graduated emission reductions from ) Year EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)Suzuki Target (25% below 1990) Emission Reductio n (tonnes) Control Cost (C$2005 millions) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Control Cost (C$2005 millions) $12 per tonne$142 per tonne $12 per tonne$142 per tonne ,000$4.8$ ,000$7.5$ ,000$4.8$56.41,244,000$7.5$ ,191,000$4.8$56.41,866,000$7.5$ ,588,000$4.8$56.42,488,000$7.5$ ,985,000$4.8$56.43,110,000$7.5$ ,382,000$4.8$56.43,732,000$7.5$ ,779,000$4.8$56.44,354,000$7.5$ ,176,000$4.8$56.44,976,000$7.5$ ,573,000$4.8$56.45,598,000$7.5$ ,970,000$4.8$56.46,218,000$7.5$ ,367,000$4.8$56.46,840,000$7.5$ ,764,000$4.8$56.47,462,000$7.5$ ,161,000$4.8$56.48,084,000$7.5$88.3 Total 36,127,000$61.9$ ,594,000$97.0$1,148.2

CO2 Equivalent Reduction In Year 2020Cumulative Over Low Estimate High EstimateLow Estimate High Estimate Maximum EGSP Act (5,150,000 tonnes) Damage Avoidance Climate Change Mitigation$185.8$6,348.0$1,300.6$44,436.2 Co-Benefits$67.1$103.2$469.7$722.5 Total Damage Avoidance$252.9$6,451.2$1,770.3$45,158.7 Control Costs$4.8$56.4$61.9$732.9 Ratio of Damage Avoidance to Control Costs53:1114:129:162:1 Net Benefits$248.1$6,394.8$1,708.4$44,425.8 Maximum Suzuki (8,075,000 tonnes) Damage Avoidance Climate Change Mitigation$291$9,943.3$2,037.4$69,610.6 Co-Benefits$105.1$1,61.7$735.7$1,131.9 Total Damage Avoidance$396.1$10,105.0$2,773.1$70,742.5 Control Costs$7.5$88.3$97$1,148.2 Ratio of Damage Avoidance to Control Costs53:1114:129:162:1 Net Benefits$388.6$10,016.7$2,676.1$69,594.3 Summary of damage avoidance benefits and control costs in year 2020 and cumulatively , (C$2005 mill.)

Cost-effectiveness: Every $1 invested in reducing GHG emissions through will save $29 in avoided damages. When control costs are subtracted from benefits attained by avoiding climate change damages and achieving co-benefits (cleaner air), net cumulative benefit of achieving EGSPA greenhouse gas emissions target by 2020 is $846 million Meeting the Suzuki target will produce a net cumulative benefit of $1.8 billion Stern: "The benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs."

Energy use, final demand, terajoules (TJ), Nova Scotia, 1978 to 2006

Power generation fuel mix for Nova Scotia Power,

Total road passenger movement, in Nova Scotia, (millions of passenger-km)

Total road passenger movement, NS, by vehicle type, 1990 to 2006

Total GHG emissions from transportation, NS, 1990 to 2005 (kt CO2 equivalents)

Number of fatalities and injuries from road accidents per 100,000 residents, Nova Scotia, 1990 to 2005

Modal share (percentage) of transportation to work, Nova Scotia,

Reducing NS’s Ecological Footprint: eg) Transportation Drive less, walk & cycle more, use public transport, car-pool. Switch from 1/car -> 4/car, 3 days/week, reduces commuting footprint by 45% Coordinated land use/transportation planning is essential to bring about any substantial shift in transportation patterns

COSO x NO x VOCs Indicator: Nova Scotia Criteria Air Contaminant Emissions (kg/capita)

NS Footprint Projected to 2020 Figure 16, The Nova Scotia Ecological Footprint, GPI Atlantic 2001

Can we do it? Percentage Waste Diversion in Nova Scotia

Full cost Accounting Results The new NS solid waste-resource system in produced net savings of at least $31.2 million, when compared to the old solid waste-resource system This translates into savings of $33 for each Nova Scotian, versus a cost of $25 as suggested when comparing strictly the operating and amortized capital costs of the two systems

Benefits Total benefits of system range from $79 million to $221 million =$84-$236 pp, incl: –$3.3 - $84.3 million in GHG emission reductions; –$9 - $67 million in air pollutant reductions –$18.8 million in extended landfill life –$28.6 million in energy savings from recycling –$6.5 - $8.9 million in employment benefits –$1.2 - $1.9 million in avoided liability costs –$1.1 - $1.7 million in export revenue of goods and services –$187,000 in additional tourism

Energy savings per tonne of waste recycled MaterialEnergy savings Paper8.5 million Btu Plastic20.1 million Btu Glass2.4 million Btu Steel Cans18.4 million Btu Aluminium Cans166.9 million Btu

Costs Total costs of solid waste-resource system were $ million: –$72.4 m. in operating and amortized capital costs –$14.3 m. for beverage container recycling prog. –$2.7 million for used tire management program –$1.6 million in RRFB operating and admin costs –$5 - $9.5 million to increase participation –$220,000 - $1.8 million in nuisance costs

Conclusions: Accounts 1995 NS Solid Waste-Resource Strategy has led to a considerable net benefit, both in monetary and non-monetary terms: The solid waste-resource system in , despite increased operating and amortized capital costs, provided a net savings of between $31 million and $167.7 million compared to the operating and amortized capital costs of the old system

Indicators of Genuine Progress % diversion from landfills: 50% Access to curbside recycling in Nova Scotia jumped from less than 5% in 1989 to 99% today 76% of residents now have access to curbside organics pickup Access =highest rates in the country This is “genuine progress”

Conclusions: Indicators Nova Scotia is a leader both internationally and nationally in solid waste diversion. The accessibility, comprehensiveness, and levels of waste being composted and recycled have all improved since the introduction of the Solid Waste-Resource Strategy. BUT backsliding: Diversion 50% (2000) -> 36% today (a/c NS DOE) 41% (Statcan)

Per capita solid waste disposal (kg) for Canada and provinces, 2004 and 2006

Diversion rate of waste by province and territory, 2004 and 2006

Per capita solid waste disposal (kg per capita per year), Nova Scotia, 1996/ /07

Residential recycling rate, Canada and provinces,

Percent of residents who compost, Canada and provinces, 1994 and 2006

Volunteerism: Atlantic Provinces lead (formal rate)

Measuring What we Value - Leaving a Sustainable and Prosperous Nova Scotia for our Children

Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique