PEAK OIL GLOBAL WARMING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY THE LONG EMERGENCY

Oil producers (98)

“The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation… the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.” The Hirsch Report U.S. Department of Energy February 2005

“It is quite likely that the time interval before the global peak occurs will be briefer than the period required for societies to adapt themselves painlessly to a different energy regime.” —Richard Heinberg Journalist & Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute Peak Everything: Waking Up to a Century of Declines

 After peaking of oil production, exports cease in only nine years, far faster than overall oil production.  Exports decline at an accelerating rate, starting at about -13% and ending at about -48%, averaging about -29% per year over the 8 years of decline.  Only about 10% of the oil produced after the peak is ever exported!

 Expect oil prices to be in dynamic movement.  Conservatively, plan for US$200/barrel by 2010  Expect the fundamentals of fading supply growth and growing demand to push prices ever higher in the five-year horizon, perhaps well beyond US$300/barrel.

Climate Change  Any theory explaining climate change must account for all known data.  Only the theory of anthropogenic (man made) global warming comprehensively addresses all the phenomena such as melting polar ice, disappearing glaciers, ocean acidity, etc,  Skeptics cherry-pick data  Scientists analyze data to develop theories that are constantly tested  The study of climate change since 1988 has been the single largest coordinated scientific endeavor in history.  Man made global warming has been consistently confirmed  The irony, of course, is that we all wish the skeptics were right

“We have at most ten years—not ten years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions.” —James Hansen Director Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA

Economic Instability

“The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns and will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends on it, including financial capital. It heralds the collapse of the present financial system, and the related political structures… I am speaking of a second Great Depression.” Colin Campbell, Ph.D. Retired Geologist BP, Texaco ASPO Conference 2003

“The world oil production peak represents an unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak havoc on national economies, topple governments, alter national boundaries, provoke military strife, and challenge the continuation of civilized life.” James Howard Kunstler The Long Emergency Renowned social critic

PEAK OIL GLOBAL WARMING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY THE LONG EMERGENCY

“The Long Emergency is an opportunity to pause, to think through our present course, and to adjust to a saner path for the future. We had best face facts: we really have no choice. The Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. It is also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot better. Let’s not squander this moment.” —Albert Bates (paraphrased) Dir. of the Institute for Appropriate Technology The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook

“Inherent within the challenges of peak oil and climate change is an extraordinary opportunity to reinvent, rethink and rebuild the world around us.” —Rob Hopkins The Transition Handbook

“The real issue of our age is how we make a graceful and ethical descent.” David Holmgren Co-founder of Permaculture Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability

 The challenge of global climate change makes a shift away from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survival.  The impending peak in oil and gas production means that the transition is inevitable.  Our only choice is whether to proactively undertake the transition now—or later.

“I believe that a lower-energy, more localized future, in which we move from being consumers to being producer/consumers, where food, energy and other essentials are locally produced, local economies are strengthened and we have learned to live more within our means is a step towards something extraordinary, not a step away from something inherently irreplaceable.” —Rob Hopkins The Transition Handbook

 Local production of food, energy and goods  Local development of currency, government and culture  Reducing consumption while improving environmental and social conditions  Developing an exemplary community that can be a working model for other communities when the effects of energy decline become more intense

“The most radical thing you can do is stay home.” —Gary Snyder Renowned American Poet and environmentalist

 Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced within a given radius  Ratio of car parking space to productive land use  Degree of engagement in practical relocalization work by local community  Amount of traffic on local roads  Number of businesses owned by local people  Percentage of local trade carried out in local currency  Proportion of the community employed locally  Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given radius  Percentage of local building materials used in new housing developments  Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given degree of basic competency  Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that have been produced within a given radius

“…I have become fascinated by how we apply these principles to whole towns, whole settlements, and in particular, to how we design this transition in such a way that people will embrace it as a common journey, as a collective adventure, as something positive… How can we design descent pathways which make people feel alive, positive and included in this process of societal transformation?” —Rob Hopkins

“It takes a lot of cheap energy to maintain the levels of social inequality we see today, the levels of obesity, the record levels of indebtedness, the high levels of car use and alienating urban landscapes. Only a culture awash with cheap oil could become de-skilled on the monumental scale we have.” —Rob Hopkins

“The future with less oil could be preferable to the present, if we are able to engage with enough imagination and creativity sufficiently in advance of the peak…” —Rob Hopkins

Why Transition?  Climate change makes this carbon reduction transition essential  Peak oil makes it inevitable  Transition initiatives make it feasible, viable and attractive (as far we can tell so far...)

…A creative, engaging, playful process, wherein we support our communities through the loss of the familiar and inspire and create a new lower energy infrastructure which is ultimately an improvement on the present.

For all those aspects of life that this community needs to sustain itself and thrive, how do we:  dramatically reduce carbon emissions (in response to climate change);  significantly increase resilience (in response to peak oil);  greatly strengthen our local economy (in response to economic instability)?

 Life with less energy is inevitable, and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise.  We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks.  We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now.  By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected.

 Our vision is a future where life is more socially connected, more meaningful and satisfying, more sustainable, and more equitable in a greater community of relocalized communities…  Where production and consumption occur closer to home…  Where long and fragile supply chains—now vulnerable to surges in oil prices and economic volatility—have been replaced by interconnected local networks…  Where the total amount of energy consumed by businesses and citizens is dramatically less than current unsustainable levels…

1. Set up an initiating group 2. Raise awareness 3. Lay the foundations (partnering) 4. Organize a Great Unleashing 5. Form groups 6. Use Open Space Technology 7. Develop visible, practical projects 8. Facilitate the Great Reskilling 9. Build bridges to local government 10. Honor the elders 11. Let it go where it wants to go 12. Create an Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP)

..and design its evolution from the outset!

Collaborate where possible Co-operation, not competition

“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing / Education / Transport

“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007

Skilling Up for Powerdown Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning …

Cultivate positive and productive relationships. Cultivate positive and productive relationships. You may be pushing against an open door! You may be pushing against an open door! Government should support, not drive. Government should support, not drive. Collaborate on community plan. Collaborate on community plan.

 Focus on the questions  Unleash the collective genius of the community  Any sense of control is illusory

 Start with a vision and then backcast  Incorporate Transition Tales  Base it on current planning documents

“Your EDAP should feel like a holiday brochure, presenting a localized, low-energy world in such an enticing way that anyone reading it will feel their life utterly bereft if they don’t dedicate the rest of their lives towards its realization.” —Rob Hopkins

Positive visioning Positive visioning Awareness-raising as an invitation Awareness-raising as an invitation Helps people access good information, trusts them to make good decisions Helps people access good information, trusts them to make good decisions Inclusion and openness Inclusion and openness Enabling sharing and networking Enabling sharing and networking Building resilience, cutting carbon emissions Building resilience, cutting carbon emissions Deeply rooted in principles and ethics of Permaculture Deeply rooted in principles and ethics of Permaculture Transition is both Inner and Outer Transition is both Inner and Outer Subsidiarity: decision-making at the appropriate level Subsidiarity: decision-making at the appropriate level Openness for peer-to-peer feedback Openness for peer-to-peer feedback Transition makes sense: the solution is scalable Transition makes sense: the solution is scalable A viral model—easy to replicate A viral model—easy to replicate

“The Transition process is one of acting as a catalyst, unlocking the collective genius and enthusiasm of the community, and harnessing the untapped power of engaged optimism.” —Transition Town Totnes

“As a species, we’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.” —Transition Town Lewes

“The Transition movement is the most exciting, most hopeful, most inspirational movement happening in Britain today.” —Caroline Lucas European Parliament

“The Transition movement has harnessed the collective call to action and is a glue that is mending the torn fabric of our communities.” —Cliona O’Conaill Carbon Descent

“Those who are involved in Transition Initiatives are part of one of the biggest and most important research projects underway anywhere in the world. You are catalyzing those around you to ask the questions that government still finds it very hard to ask, but that are essential to our collective survival. You are acknowledging that it is with us that real change begins, and that it is up to us whether we accept this responsibility or shy away from it.” —Rob Hopkins

“In the face of almost certain uncertainty, our job is to rise to the occasion, to evolve—in our thinking, our perspectives, and in our commitment to make this transition as positive as possible. We will probably become some new kind of human at the end of it all—it is that big and that important.” —John L. Petersen President and Founder, The Arlington Institute A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change

“All things are possible once enough human beings realize that everything is at stake.” —Norman Cousins Journalist, Author & World Peace Advocate

Resources  Transition US ( Transition US Transition US ◦ Official US transition website  Transition Culture ( Transition Culture Transition Culture ◦ Rob Hopkins Transition website  Transition Towns WIKI Transition Towns WIKI Transition Towns WIKI ◦ ◦ A central repository for Transition information.  TRANSITION TOWNS: An Interview with Rob Hopkins ◦ ◦ A 50min interview with the founder of the transition movement.  Transition Newburyport (ning site) ◦ ◦ Social network site  Peak Moment Peak Moment Peak Moment ◦ ◦ Community responses to a changing energy future half hour interviews.

1st Annual Earth Expo. Join Transition Newburyport at the 1st Annual Earth Expo.Join Transition Newburyport at the 1st Annual Earth Expo. Organized by the Greater Newburyport Eco-Collaborative. Organized by the Greater Newburyport Eco-Collaborative. Maudslay State Park.Maudslay State Park. Sunday April 26th:Sunday April 26th: 11 – 3 PM 11 – 3 PM

Please Join Transition Newburyport for a screening of the End of Suburbia The End of Suburbia explores the American Way of Life and its prospects as the planet approaches a critical era, as global demand for fossil fuels begins to outstrip supply. What does Peak Oil mean for North America? Where: Newburyport Library. When: May 13 th at 7 PM