Adapting to climate change in eastern New Zealand

Today’s programme

Global change Source:

The carbon cycle Source:

The greenhouse effect

Past and recent climate Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)

Present climate variability Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)

Global climate change Average global temperatures are projected to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8°C by The amount of increase will strongly depend on steps that are taken globally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Average global temperatures are projected to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8°C by The amount of increase will strongly depend on steps that are taken globally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There is more uncertainty with changes in rainfall. There is more uncertainty with changes in rainfall. Source:

Projected changes in average temperature and precipitation Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)

Some key points We are experiencing unprecedented global changes such as population growth, deforestation, loss of genetic diversity and increases in greenhouse gases. We are experiencing unprecedented global changes such as population growth, deforestation, loss of genetic diversity and increases in greenhouse gases. The consequence of increased greenhouse gases is change in the natural greenhouse effect leading to climate change. The consequence of increased greenhouse gases is change in the natural greenhouse effect leading to climate change. There is clear evidence that climate change is happening. There is clear evidence that climate change is happening. Future climate will result from a combination of an underlying warming trend and on-going natural variations. Future climate will result from a combination of an underlying warming trend and on-going natural variations. While some trends (e.g. higher average temperatures) are emerging, there is a lot of uncertainty with other factors (e.g. changes in rainfall). While some trends (e.g. higher average temperatures) are emerging, there is a lot of uncertainty with other factors (e.g. changes in rainfall).

Projected changes in eastern New Zealand It is important to be aware that prediction of regional changes in climate is much less certain than predictions of broader scale changes. It is important to be aware that prediction of regional changes in climate is much less certain than predictions of broader scale changes.

Bay of Plenty

Hawke’s Bay

Nelson and Marlborough

Canterbury

Projected impacts in eastern New Zealand There could be more extremes such as prolonged dry periods and intense rainfall events, leading to more droughts and floods. There could be more extremes such as prolonged dry periods and intense rainfall events, leading to more droughts and floods. Security of water supply will be the biggest issue in eastern regions. Security of water supply will be the biggest issue in eastern regions. Biosecurity challenges will increase in all areas, with southward spread of new and existing plant and animal pests. Biosecurity challenges will increase in all areas, with southward spread of new and existing plant and animal pests. Changes in biodiversity will occur. Changes in biodiversity will occur. Changes in pasture composition will occur, with southward spread of sub- tropical grass species. Changes in pasture composition will occur, with southward spread of sub- tropical grass species. It’s not all bad news. There will be increased opportunities to diversify into new crops. Water will be the key. It’s not all bad news. There will be increased opportunities to diversify into new crops. Water will be the key.

Adapting to climate change will be one of the world’s major challenges of the 21 st century ‘Stop debating whether global warming is happening. The priority now is to start preparing for its consequences, be they droughts and heatwaves or floods and harsh winters. That is the message from meteorologists, who say adapting to climate change will be one of the world’s major challenges of the 21st century.’ ‘Stop debating whether global warming is happening. The priority now is to start preparing for its consequences, be they droughts and heatwaves or floods and harsh winters. That is the message from meteorologists, who say adapting to climate change will be one of the world’s major challenges of the 21st century.’ Source: New Scientist, 13 September 2003

What is adaptation? Adaptation is what people and communities can be doing through positive actions and interactions to address the likely effects of climate change. Adaptation is what people and communities can be doing through positive actions and interactions to address the likely effects of climate change.

Why adaptation, and how? Human’s have adapted to change for millenia. Local catastrophes have occurred. Human’s have adapted to change for millenia. Local catastrophes have occurred. Change in the future is inevitable. The challenge is that the rate of change is unprecedented. Change in the future is inevitable. The challenge is that the rate of change is unprecedented. The issues are no longer local. The issues are no longer local. Doing nothing is not an option. We need to be smart and proactive. Doing nothing is not an option. We need to be smart and proactive. We can be proactive in developing greater resilience. We can be proactive in developing greater resilience.

Why farmers? Climate change will bring challenges and opportunities for everyone. Climate change will bring challenges and opportunities for everyone. Farmers are the managers of a significant portion of our land and water resources. Farmers are the managers of a significant portion of our land and water resources. Farmers are adaptors. Farmers are adaptors. Their adaptive capacity needs to be supported for the benefit of all. Their adaptive capacity needs to be supported for the benefit of all.

Group work Adaptation at the micro (farm) scale Adaptation at the micro (farm) scale –Consider present and future impacts (mapping exercise) –Develop the micro adaptation picture (change the farm picture)

What you can do (and what proactive farmers are already doing) ‘Success comes from making a decision to act and getting the timing right.’ ‘Success comes from making a decision to act and getting the timing right.’ Focus on a flexible, balanced, approach that addresses the economy, ecology and social well- being of the farm. Focus on a flexible, balanced, approach that addresses the economy, ecology and social well- being of the farm.

What proactive farmers are doing FARMRESILIENCE Trees Diversification Soil Cropping Energy Waste Infrastructure Stock Pasture Water

Information and support Sustainable Farming Fund, Sustainable Farming Fund, Sustainable Management Fund, Sustainable Management Fund, Regional Council land management information and support Regional Council land management information and support –Environment Bay of Plenty, click on Land –Hawke’s Bay Regional Council, click on Land –Environment Canterbury, –For other Regional Councils go to the Local Government website to find relevant website and contact details: Farm Forestry Association, Farm Forestry Association, New Zealand Landcare Trust, New Zealand Landcare Trust, Ballance Farm Environment Awards, Ballance Farm Environment Awards,

Group work – Adaptation at the meso (catchment or regional) scale Develop a realistic resilience picture that clearly addresses future risks associated with climate change. Develop a realistic resilience picture that clearly addresses future risks associated with climate change. Develop a positive social interaction in your group. Develop a positive social interaction in your group. Effectively communicate your vision and how it can be achieved. Effectively communicate your vision and how it can be achieved.

Some key challenges Crisis provides a learning opportunity. Crisis provides a learning opportunity. Innovation requires a change of thinking. Innovation requires a change of thinking. Everyone has a point of view. Everyone has a point of view.

What communities can do Development of region-wide resilience requires partnerships between communities, industry groups and statutory organisations. Development of region-wide resilience requires partnerships between communities, industry groups and statutory organisations. Everyone needs to be working together. Everyone needs to be working together.

What communities can do REGIONALRESILIENCE Education Water Biodiversity Energy Waste Infrastructure Biosecurity Urban/rural development

Some key ingredients for a resilient meso Focus on ‘innovators’ – communicate their stories to others. Focus on ‘innovators’ – communicate their stories to others. Identify wider issues and provide the opportunity for constructive social interactions to explore these. Identify wider issues and provide the opportunity for constructive social interactions to explore these. A whole catchment approach – science and society working together. A whole catchment approach – science and society working together. Shift the timeframe to the next 50 to 100 years. Shift the timeframe to the next 50 to 100 years.

Some good examples The Coast Care BOP Programme, (look under Coast) or phone The Coast Care BOP Programme, (look under Coast) or phone The Hawke’s Bay Regional Council Land Management Group, (look under Land) or phone The Hawke’s Bay Regional Council Land Management Group, (look under Land) or phone The Environment Canterbury Living Streams Programme, or phone The Environment Canterbury Living Streams Programme, or phone Enviroschools, or phone The vision of Enviroschools is ‘a generation of innovative and motivated young people, who instinctively think and act sustainably’. Enviroschools, or phone The vision of Enviroschools is ‘a generation of innovative and motivated young people, who instinctively think and act sustainably’. Integrated Catchment Management Project, htm or phone Integrated Catchment Management Project, htm or phone htm htm

‘ Imagination is more important than knowledge’ Albert Einstein Every situation is different, we need to work with that diversity Lake Rerewhakaaitu, Bay of Plenty Ahuriri Catchment, Hawke’s Bay Ashburton District, Canterbury

half ‘An oak tree lives in a four-hundred-year time- frame. Human time-frames are always too short. So we get it wrong, and we don’t really understand the natural processes half the time.’ ‘So what’s your rule for the Forest?’ ‘Look for a balance. But know that nature will find a better one.’ From ‘The Forest’, by Edward Rutherfurd