Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization Leading through Learning 1

Member Countries Indonesia (1965) Lao PDR (1965) Malaysia (1965) Philippines (1965) Singapore (1965) Thailand (1965) Cambodia (1971) Brunei Darussalam (1984) Vietnam (1992) Myanmar (1998) Timor-Leste (2006)

Associate Members Australia (1973) France (1973) New Zealand (1974) Canada (1988) Germany (1990) Netherlands (1993) Spain (2007) United Kingdom (2013)

Affiliate Members International Council for Open and Distance Education (1999) University of Tsukuba (2009) British Council (2010)

Vision The leading organization for enhancing regional understanding and cooperation in education, science and culture for a better quality of life in Southeast Asia Mission To enhance regional understanding, cooperation and unity of purpose among Member Countries for a better quality of life through the establishment of networks and partnerships, the provision of fora among policy makers and experts, and the promotion of sustainable human resource development

Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Director, SEAMEO Secretariat Bangkok, Thailand witaya@seameo.org secretariat@seameo.org

https://alumni.tsukuba.ac.jp/ Imagine the Future https://alumni.tsukuba.ac.jp/

The Futures Not just the Future but Futures Futurists can not predict the future. No one can. A prediction is intended to be true and accurate statement. But we all can forecast futures. A forecast is intended to be logical and useful statement about the futures. Futures studies help institutions and individuals envision, design, and move towards preferred futures rather than passively accepting whatever “will be”. But to be effective the process of forecasting and envisioning must be done continuously and not just a one-shot activity

The Futures and Time Horizon But when is the present, when does the future begin? Most people are only interested in “now”. Some planners and policy-makers may be interested in the next five, ten, or maybe 15 years. Futurists begin to take interest from between 20 to 50—maybe 100—years from now. Beyond 100 years is speculation, imagination and fiction.

The Futures and Time Horizon DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION futures research planning TIMELINE AND DEGREE OF FLUX administration MAGNITUDE OF INTENDED ACTIONS James Dator, University of Hawaii

Plausible versus Preferred Futures Plausible Futures Preferred Futures What might happen: trends forecasts, scenarios We need to understand this Values, mission, vision, Goals, strategies, actions Dreams and imagination We need to create this

Impact and Uncertainty high impact Potential Drivers high impact, high uncertainty Drivers high impact, low uncertainty low uncertainty high uncertainty Background Trends low uncertainty, low impact Inconsequential high uncertainty, low impact low impact

What is Foresight Systematic attempts to look into the future (of science, society, economy – and their interactions) in order to promote social, environmental and economic benefit Foresight study is a process of anticipating and managing changes

Key Elements of Foresight Study Structured Anticipation Interactive and Participative Methods New networks Strategic Visioning For present day decision and action Social Benefits and Disbenefits

Why Foresight is Important Globalization Constraints on government spending Change in management and industrial production Changes in the structure of and demand for knowledge production Increasing uncertainties for the future

Framework of Foresight Inputs Strategic scanning of environment/ Delphi Emerging issues/ trends analysis Systematic thinking/ causal layout analysis Scenarios visioning, backcasting, roadmaps Foresight process Analysis Interpretation Prospection Outputs Reports, presentations, workshops Multimedia Strategy development and strategic planning Strategy

Example used by SEAMEO in developing Post-2015 Education agenda Second Discussion + Analysis Global picture of Education/ EFA/ MDGs including Issues & Trends Country Priorities, Issues and Challenges on Education + Regional Initiatives on EFA Goals and MDGs Consultations using Foresight and 4 Futures Gap Analysis Delphi Survey (2 rounds) Presentation of Findings and the Post-2015 Agenda to SEAMEO Education Ministers and other Stakeholders Futures/Preferred/ Worst Case Scenario, etc Pre-2015 versus Post-2015 – What is missing and what are the new targets Selected target groups Verify the agenda First Discussion + Analysis (Global versus Country Issues) Gap analysis New set of education agenda Example used by SEAMEO in developing Post-2015 Education agenda

Range of Futures/ Foresight between “Push and Pull” Foresight about the future of technology aimed at technology .. and priority setting Foresight about the future of technology aimed at identifying technology for economic and social change Foresight about social and economic needs and ways in which these might be solved with the help of Technology Foresight about social and economic needs aimed at identifying ways to alleviate conditions

SEAMEO Consultation and Development of Post-2015 Education Scenarios and Post-EFA Education Agenda in Southeast Asia

Development of Post-2015 Education Agenda in Southeast Asia Post-2015 short (2015-2020) & long-term (2015-2035) recommendations to address the 4 future futures guided by the 4 futures but other parameters such as the ASEAN Community, values and cultures Transnational issues ASEAN Community Social and cultural diversity Lifelong learning Public health Drivers of change Emerging Issues & Trends Demographic change Governance Integration and mobility ICT 21st Century skills Economic growth Environment deterioration and sustainability Next step: Determining preferred future 4 Generic Futures of Manoa School Achievements In Education Challenges

Development of SEAMEO Strategic Plan (2011-2020) Golden SEAMEO 12 SEAMEO initiatives ”business as usual” scenario knowledge management SEAMEO Congress scenario building Golden SEAMEO scenario SEAMEO College mentoring key success factors strategic validation strategies “live and let die” scenario grouping the initiatives: unique, shared and common

Imagine Imagine there's no heaven It’s easy if you try No hell below us Above us only sky Imagine all the people living for today Imagine there's no countries It isn’t hard to do Nothing to kill or die for And no religion too Imagine all the people living life in peace You, you may say I’m a dreamer, but I'm not the only one I hope some day you'll join us And the world will be as one

Imagine Imagine no possessions I wonder if you can No need for greed or hunger A brotherhood of man Imagine all the people sharing all the world You, you may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one I hope some day you'll join us And the world will live as one http://www.bretlsimmons.com/2011-07/leadership-foresight/

Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia Thank you very much. Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Director, SEAMEO Secretariat Bangkok, Thailand witaya@seameo.org secretariat@seameo.org