Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique MEASURING COMMUNITY WELLBEING Nelson, New Zealand, May 24, 2006

What kind of Nelson/Tasman are we leaving our children...?

... In experience and language of ordinary New Zealanders New Zealand’s premier quality of life More possessions, longer lives But, defining wellbeing more broadly: Some disturbing signs

Warning Signals: Determinants of Wellbeing Higher stress rates, obesity, childhood asthma, environmental illness, infectious Insecurity - safety, livelihood Greater inequality; child poverty Decline of volunteerism Natural resource depletion, species loss (e.g. kiwi decline of ¼ in last six years) Global warming

“The more the economy grows, the better off we are” - Sending the wrong message?

The Big Myth: ‘Healthy’ Economy = Healthy Society  More equals better? (health language)  Resource depletion as economic gain  More consumption, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, make economy grow, but are we better off?  Need for new indicators to be more than “add-ons” but to challenge existing misleading messages. Therefore….:

Current measures of progress send the wrong messages  Crime, sickness, pollution, make economy grow —just because money is being spent.  GDP can grow even as poverty and inequality increase.  More work hours make economy grow; free time has no value – affects health  GDP ignores work that contributes directly to community health (volunteers, work in home)

Economic growth as indicator in Tasman, GDP in Nelson? Kuznets’ warning 60 years ago Using “quantity” to measure “quality” Using input to measure outcome New indicators not designed to replace GDP but to replace its misuse as measure of wellbeing and progress

“Generating Wealth” GDP = input. What are the outcomes we want? – E.g. Adequate living standards, decent jobs vs jobless growth GPI not opposed to growth but asks what is growing. Socially and environmentally responsible dev’t. E.g. Denmark, fair trade coffee, Dow – GHGs See “Good News for a Change”; 2005 conf.

Why We Need New Indicators - Policy Reasons:  Economic growth = ‘better off’ sends misleading signals to policy-makers and local communities  Vital social, environmental assets ignored  Preventive initiatives to conserve and use resources sustainably, to reduce poverty, sickness and greenhouse gas emissions, are blunted and inadequately funded

Indicators are Powerful What we measure:  reflects what we value as a society;  determines what makes it onto the policy agenda;  influences behaviour (eg students)

A good set of indicators can help communities:  foster common vision and purpose;  identify strengths and weaknesses;  change public behaviour;  hold leaders accountable at election time  initiate actions to promote wellbeing

GPI Atlantic was founded to address that need Non-profit, fully independent research group founded April, 1997 Located Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Web site: Core of 10 researchers, academics, experts; 12-person board of directors

Measuring Wellbeing. In the GPI:  Health, free time, unpaid work (voluntary and household), and education have value  Sickness, crime, disasters, pollution are costs  Natural resources (eg forests) are capital assets  Reductions in greenhouse gas, crime, poverty, ecological footprint are progress  Growing equity signals progress  No bottom line (eg air quality Auckland/Christchurch)

NZ on the leading edge Marilyn Waring’s pioneering work Quality of Life in NZ’s 12 Largest Cities Monitoring Progress Towards a Sustainable NZ Social Reports (MSD) Tomorrow’s Manukau: A vision into the future Local Government Act 2002

Natural environment Society Economy

Values, elements of wellbeing Health Security Knowledge Community Freedom Ecological integrity Equity(+ lit. review)

Outcome domains in the new Canadian Index of Wellbeing Standard of living Time use (and balance) Healthy populace Educated populace Community vitality Ecosystem services Governance

E.g. Full Cost Accounting Basic Principles and challenges: Expanded definition of capital: Natural, human, social, cultural, produced capital, but no common metric for measurement External -> internal benefits and costs Price non-market benefits and costs Fixed -> variable costs Strengths: Enhances market efficiency, reduces needs for govt. regulation, provides more accurate, comprehensive information

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: 22 Components Natural Capital: Soils and Agriculture Forests Marine Environment/Fisheries Water Resources / Water Quality Nonrenewable Subsoil Assets

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Twenty-two Components Environment: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sustainable Transportation Ecological Footprint Analysis Air Quality Solid Waste

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Twenty-two Components Time Use: Value of Civic and Voluntary Work Value of Unpaid Housework & Childcare Work Time and Underemployment Value of Leisure Time Marilyn Waring’s pioneering work paved way

Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index: Twenty-two Components Social Capital/Socioeconomic Health Educational Attainment Income Distribution, Debts and Assets Livelihood Security Costs of Crime Good Governance

Examples of GPI Results: e.g. Valuing Voluntary Work Canadians contribute 3.4 billion hours of voluntary work per year; equivalent of 1.8 million FTE jobs (economic add-on) Services worth $53.2 billion / year, invisible in our conventional measures of progress 1990s: voluntary work down 12.3% - time stress Canadians lose $6 billion in volunteer services

Valuing a Healthy Population GPI Population Health Reports include: Cost of Chronic Illness in Canada (focus on preventable portion) Women’s Health in Atlantic Canada Income, Health and Disease in Canada; Equity and Disease in Atlantic Canada Costs of Tobacco, Obesity, Physical Inactivity Cost of HIV/AIDS in Canada Economic Impact of Smoke-Free Workplaces Value of Care-giving

Costs of Chronic Disease 60% medical costs = $1.2 billion / year 76% disability costs = $900 million 78% premature death costs = $900 million 70% total burden of illness = $3 billion = 13% GDP

Cost of Chronic Illness in Nova Scotia 1998 (2001$ million)

What Portion is Preventable? Excess Risk Factors Account for: 40% chronic disease 50% chronic disease mortality 25% medical care costs = $500 mill./yr 38% total burden of disease = $1.8 bill. (includes direct and indirect costs)

Excess Risk Factors Account for (% economic burden of disease) Tobacco: 10% Physical Inactivity: 7% Obesity:5.5% High blood pressure:5% Lack fruits/vegetables:3% High blood cholesterol:2.5% Alcohol:2%

Costs of Key Risk Factors, Nova Scotia (2001 $ millions)

Cost-Effective Interventions - School-based smoking prevention = At least 10:1 –WIC - 3:1 –Counselling pregnant women (LBW) - 5:1 –Workplace: 2: 1 etc

Health Costs of Poverty Most reliable predictor of poor health, premature death, disability: 4x more likely report fair or poor health = costly e.g. (1) Increased hospitalization: Men = +46%; = +57% Women = +62%; = +92%

Heart Health Costs of Poverty Higher risk smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, cardiovascular risk = costly York U: 6,366 Canadian deaths; $4 billion health care costs / year are attributable to poverty-related heart disease NS could avoid 200 deaths, $124 million per year if all Nova Scotians were as heart healthy as higher income groups

Health Cost of Inequality British Medical Journal: “What matters in determining mortality and health is less the overall wealth of the society and more how evenly wealth is distributed. The more equally wealth is distributed, the better the health of that society.” e.g. Sweden, Japan vs USA

Costs of Socioeconomic Inequality in Nova Scotia Use of physician services (Kephart): –No high school = +49% than degree –High school diploma = +12% more –Lower income = +43% than higher –Lower middle income = +33% more

Excess Physician Use (=small fraction total costs) Educational inequality = $42.2 million = 17.4% of total Income inequality = $27.5 million = 11.3% = costs avoided if all Nova Scotians were as healthy as higher income / university

Valuing Equity: GDP tells us how much income, not how income shared

Global, equity dimensions: 20% of world’s people in highest-income countries account for 86% of consumption spending. Poorest 20% account for 1.3% Richest 20% consume 45% of all meat and fish, poorest 20% consume just 5% Richest 20% = 58% of total energy, poorest 20% = <4% Richest 20% =84% of paper, poorest 20% = 1.1% Richest 20% =87% of world's vehicle fleet, the poorest 20% = <1%

Translation to Behaviour: e.g. Estimated Transportation Footprint, NS

Reduction in Commuting Footprint

Valuing Natural Resource Health For example, a healthy forest effectively: Prevents soil erosion/sediment control Protects watersheds Regulates climate regulation/sequesters carbon Provides habitat for wildlife / biodiversity Supports recreation, tourism, aesthetic quality Provides timber

Volume 2, Figure 18

Provincial area (hectares) of clearcut harvest and silviculture (000’s seedlings), Nova Scotia

Natural Age Limits Maritime tree species White Ash American Beech White Birch Yellow Birch East’n Hemlock Red Maple Sugar Maple Red Oak Red Pine White Pine Black Spruce Red Spruce White Spruce

% Forest Area by Age Class, NS

Volume 1, Figure 2

Volume 1, Figure 4

Volume 1, Figure 5

Volume 1, Figure 6

Volume 1, Figure 3

Old Forests Store More Carbon A new study published in Science, reported that:... replacing old-growth forest by young Kyoto stands... will lead to massive carbon losses to the atmosphere mainly by replacing a large pool with a minute pool of regrowth and by reducing the flux into a permanent pool of soil organic matter. (Schulze et. al. 2000) Nova Scotia forests have lost $1.3 billion in carbon storage value since 1958

Changes in Atlantic Bird Species Populations

Recreational Brook Trout Caught and Retained in Nova Scotia

The Economic Dimension: e.g. Angling Cost Per Fish, Nova Scotia (1997$)

Valuation of Non-Timber Forest Ecosystem Goods and Services in NS (Costanza, replacement values)

Volume 1, Figure 32

Volume 2, Figure 17

The Job Creation Potential of Value-Added Wood Industries: Full-Time Jobs Theoretically Created with Set Volume of Wood Volume 2, Table 32

U.S. Employment Created by Various Timber Products Volume 1, Table 12

Examples of Retail Prices for Varying Dimension White Pine (Jan prices) Volume 2, Table 29

Examples of Retail Prices for Varying Dimension Spruce (Jan prices)

Retail Prices for Clear vs. Knotty White Pine (Jan prices)

Machinery Costs for Large- Scale Harvesting

CONCLUSION: Clearcut harvesting and loss of natural age and species diversity have resulted in loss of:  valuable species  wide diameter and clear lumber that fetch premium market prices  resilience and resistance to insect infestation  wildlife habitat, & decreasing populations of birds  forest recreation values - impact nature tourism

This represents a substantial depreciation of a valuable natural capital asset  a decline in forested watershed protection and a 50% drop in shade- dependent brook trout  soil degradation and the leaching of nutrients that can affect future timber productivity  a substantial decline in carbon storage capacity and an increase in biomass carbon loss a decline in other essential forest ecosystem services.

The Good News: Volume 2: Best Forestry Practices in N. S. Selection harvesting increases forest value and provides more jobs Shift to value-added creates more jobs Restoration forestry is a good investment What incentives can encourage restoration

Community GPI Initiative came from community groups. Many community partnerships include: NS Citizens for Community Development Society; community health boards, regional public health authorities, Cape Breton Wellness Centre, Atlantic Centre of Excellence for Women’s Health CB regional police, Glace Bay Citizens Service League, Rotary Clubs, Kings and Cape Breton Community Economic Development Agencies

Community-Government- University Partnerships: Federal: Canadian Population Health Initiative, National Crime Prevention Centre, HRDC, Canadian Rural Partnership, Rural Secretariat, Statistics Canada Dalhousie Univ. Population Health Research Unit; St. Mary’s University Time Use Research Program University College of Cape Breton, Acadia U.

Goals and Objectives: Community: vision, learn, mobilize, act Vision - community indicator selection “Learning about ourselves” Mobilize communities - common goals Turn new-found knowledge into action

Research Goals: Identifying strengths and weaknesses of 2 very different communities Community learning about itself, insights, understanding relationships among variables - eg volunteerism, time use and health Turning knowledge into action; keeping track - measuring genuine progress

Process as Result Indicator selection, creating survey Farmers exchanging information Report releases in Sheffield Mills, Jeddore - farmers, fishermen present New ideas: e.g. restorative justice Results bring disparate groups together

The Means: 3,600 surveys - random, 15+, confidential CI 95% +/- 3%; 2 cross-tabulations Detailed: 2 hrs; Glace Bay: 82% response Survey includes health, care-giving, time use, voluntary work, security, income employment, environmental issues Data entry & cleaning, access guidelines

Community Action Community access to results - special software packages, news stories, etc. Meet to discuss results and identify policy priorities / actions Community prioritizes indicators for annual benchmarks of progress Community training - adaptations

Emphasis on practical action - E.g: Teenage smoking; overweight; exercise - e.g. promote school-based programs Screening rates - mammography, pap smears -- notify health officials of needs Identify counselling needs - employment, domestic violence, mental health Education - nutrition, recycling, energy use From elites to whole community – newsletter, website

New directions for the future: New solutions: e.g. work-life balance Model for other communities - template for adaptation - community / province Balance community-based research with methodological rigour, Statistics Canada oversight, advice, review Improve methods, indicators, survey tools, data sources - never a final product

CIW Action on 3 fronts: Research, communication and policy. E.g.: First results this year Reality Check International dimension + Conference June on global best practices (e.g. Ray Anderson, Bhutan, )

Goal: Changing Behaviour E.g. % Waste Diversion in Nova Scotia

Can it be done? s/1980s...

Tasman proposed indicators: Some questions for discussion (with which we have wrestled) Relationship between current and future wellbeing (sustainability) “Economic wellbeing” = “economic growth” or “living standards”? Are they equivalent? What is their relationship? Does an economy have to grow to enhance wellbeing? What is a “sustainable economy”?

Tasman – Demographics, Data needs Population, age, demographics: Information or indicators? Direction of indicators – e.g. is more pop. better? Is younger age structure progress? Is greater density positive? Include desired indicators for which no data currently available? Create new data needs – data recommendations. Surveys needed or larger StatNZ sample sizes

Tasman – health, safety Comparability of questions across communities (e.g. community safety, self- rated health) – linked indicators Questions on mental health, satisfaction, happiness, etc? Ill-health – has meningococcal, TB, but cancer, heart disease/circulatory?

Tasman - Economic Income distribution? – by quintile, GINI, ethnicity, gender. I.e. equity dimension of wellbeing Quality of jobs as well as quantity: Job security, % jobs with benefits + measures of underemployment and overwork Time stress; work-life balance

Tasman – social, education Social supports – most direct empirical relationship to satisfaction + key health determinant Schooling vs education. Focus on outcomes – e.g. basic literacy, functional literacy, numeracy, science, history, geography, civic literacy, etc.

Tasman - environment Measuring sustainability – supply (natural resource accounts) and demand (footprint) Air: PM10 or 5 CACs + Hg (cf Auckland / Christchurch) GHGs as key indicator; energy per capita Fish stocks + characteristics (marine env’t) Diversion, Recycling (+ Composting?) Aesthetics

Community indicators: Measuring what we value to leave a better world for our children

Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique