The prospects for wellbeing in public policy: motivation, means and motor Ian Bache Department of Politics, University of Sheffield ESRC seminar series on The Politics of Wellbeing /08/2015© The University of Sheffield 1

Introduction Idea of wellbeing as a guide to public policy gaining traction For some, this agenda might and should, only lead at most to small-scale readjustments in a limited number of policy areas. For others, wellbeing has potential to challenge dominance of GDP as measure of progress and perhaps (long-term) lead to substantive refocusing of government policy (paradigm change) What has been the impact of the wellbeing agenda on UK policy to date and the prospects for further change? Argument: change to date is mainly ‘first order’, with some ‘second order’ experiments, but paradigm change is some distance away –‘motivation’ is strong, but ‘means’ are weak and ‘motor’ only moderate. 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 2

Overview Hall’s (1993) theory of social learning The conditions for paradigm change Are the conditions for paradigm change present? The UK wellbeing agenda UK policy developments Motivation, means and motor Conclusions 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 3

Hall’s (1993) theory of social learning “ a deliberate attempt to adjust the goals or techniques of policy in response to past experience or new information. Learning is indicated when policy changes as a result of such a process” Hall disaggregated policy into goals, instruments and settings First order change - changes in settings of policy instruments Second order change - changes in the instruments themselves as well as their settings Third order change - changes in overarching policy goals Third order change is rare and generally associated with a paradigm change 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 4

The conditions for paradigm change ‘Anomalies’ challenge the existing paradigm, leading to 1 st and 2 nd order change, which may stretch the paradigm. If anomalies not successfully addressed, the search for alternative paradigms intensifies. But paradigm change does not automatically result from ‘failure’ of dominant paradigm Replacement of one policy paradigm by another is likely to be more sociological than scientific. Authority (shifts) over policy is central to paradigm change. Paradigm change requires a motivation, a means and a motor (Hall 2013) 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 5

Are the conditions for paradigm change present? Some conditions for paradigm change are in place post-crisis, with a widespread sense of grievance, but Hall (2013) rejects calls for a return to Keynesianism: ‘they ‘underestimate the extent to which a paradigm overarching enough to use in a new era… must speak to broader political issues if it is to have compelling appeal’ a new paradigm … will have to be the work, not only of political economists, but of politicians experimenting with new approaches… In such a process, there are many false starts but also a creativity, as parties jockey for position in contests in which collective well-being is at stake.’ (Hall p191). Wellbeing is in many respects is the language of the new era, (but there are other contenders) – might this facilitate a paradigm shift? 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 6

The UK wellbeing agenda ONS launched its Measuring National Well-being Programme in 2010, endorsed by David Cameron: ‘open up a national debate about what really matters…this information will help government work out, with evidence, the best ways of trying to help to improve people’s wellbeing’ Cameron’s support crucial but interest elsewhere: an APPG on Wellbeing since 2009; Lib Dem policy paper (2011) on ‘putting wellbeing at the heart of policymaking’; Labour’s (2015) Living Standards Index; Green Party (2015) on going ‘beyond GDP’ etc. Also initiatives in Scotland, Wales and N Ireland 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 7

UK policy developments Wellbeing now considered by every Govt. dept., feeding into thinking about policy need, appraisal and evaluation (ONS 2014), with survey qs on effects of policy on wellbeing Some ltd. examples of legislation with strong focus on wellbeing To date the, ‘experimental’ nature of the data, and gaps in understanding of cause and effect, has prompted Govt. caution (ONS 2014). So, policy developments still at an early stage: ‘The fact that it is still in there, is still being moved along and is still being taken seriously tells you that a long-term view is being taken. (Nick Hurd, MP Minister for Civil Society’ 2014)’ Is there motivation, means and motor to take it much further? 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 8

Motivation, means and motor ParadigmMotivationMeansMotor Keynesianis m (Goals: full employment/ welfare / growth) Strong - period of ‘depression, class conflict and fascism’ leading to WW2 Strong –demand management: a political economy paradigm for a ‘new class compromise’ Strong - ‘electoral politics still dominated enough by class for parties on both sides to address working class grievances’ Neoliberalism (Goals: low inflation/ free markets / growth) Strong – effects of economic crisis of the 70s Strong – monetarist offered a remedy for inflation and, aligned with market- based philos. an alt. path to growth. Strong - desire to control inflation and election of politicians (Thatcher and Reagan) keen to limit spending and curb union power Wellbeing (Goal: sustainable human flourishing) Strong - effects of the crisis, widespread discontent Weak –. Not enough known about how policy relates to wellbeing/ early stages Moderate – interest in broadening notions of social progress, but not strong commitment of authority figures 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 9

Conclusions First order change happening, some second order experiments, but third order change a distant prospect – need to know more about effects of different policies on wellbeing (cause and effect) Experimentation plays a key role in paradigm change, but Paradigm change is more sociological than scientific Authority (shifts) over policy is central to paradigm change Interpretation of the ‘problem’ crucial. Current crisis interpreted as a debt crisis, leading to policy of austerity Potential for a future crisis to be interpreted as a ‘crisis of wellbeing’ leading to different solutions? Early stages and ground being laid

Thank you! 27/08/2015© The University of Sheffield 11