Energy Security and Low Carbon Development in South Asia Asoka Abeygunawardana Executive Director - Energy Forum Adviser to the Minister of Power and Energy South Asia at night (satellite image)

GHG Emissions % by sectors in the South Asia SAARC Statement on Climate Change Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development GHG Emissions % by sectors in the South Asia

South Asia average – but not 24 x 7 SAARC Statement on Climate Change Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development Electrification in South Asia in 2009 Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 South Asia average – but not 24 x 7

Source: IEA

Current Situation

India projections Source: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

Green House Gases- Pakistan 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Total GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.) 347 557 1046 2156 4621 Energy 176 295 560 1250 2730 % Share 50.6 52.9 53.5 58.0 59.1 Agriculture 134 210 408 812 1765 38.7 37.7 39.0 38.2 Industry 20 30 52 61 75 5.8 5.4 5.0 2.8 1.6 LULUCF 10 13 15 35 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.8 Waste 7 9 11 16 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3

Generation Expansion Plan - Sri Lanka - 2009

Energy Supply Policy Who is paying for whom? At 15 EUR/Ton & 0.78 kg/kWh Who is paying for whom?

Energy Supply Policy Theoretically Estimated Potential - 3000 times the current need Technically Feasible Potential Economically Feasible Potential Environmentally Sound Potential

SAARC Statement on Climate Change Commission a study to explore the feasibility of establishing a SAARC mechanism which would provide capital for projects that promote low-carbon technology and renewable energy; and a Low-carbon Research and Development Institute in South Asian University; for bridging the gap between the avoided economic cost and avoided financial cost !!!

Thank you Low carbon economy: Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Frugality- Life styles Thank you

Carbon Emissions

India projections Source: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

Equity and common but differentiated responsibilities CO2 emissions peak 50% chance peaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm

India projections Source: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

Projected Emission Intensity Reduction over 2005 levels Voluntary commitment to lower its emission intensity by 20%-25% below the 2005 levels by 2020 Growth Scenarios:2020 8% growth 9% growth Higher and Lower Ends of the Range 2005 Emissions DE AE Emission Intensity (grams CO2eq/Rs GDP) 56.21 42.47 36.87 42.79 37.51 (%) Reduction in Emission Intensity   24.44% 34.40% 23.88% 33.27% Emission intensity reduction of around 24.44 % with determined effort and 34.4 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005. Emission intensity reduction of around 23.88 % with determined effort and 33.27 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.

Pursuing socio-economic development Sri Lanka - 100% electrification by 2012 98 %< 95 – 98% 90 – 95% 85 – 90% 80 – 85% 70 – 80% 60 – 70% 50 – 60% 40 – 50% 40%> 100% 96% 90% 98% 88% 79% 91% 86% 84% 73% 82% 89% 60% 71% 72% 44% 68% 16% 10% 95% 94% 87% 85% 93% 75% 80% 70% 50% 40%

Comparative Map of India with Thermal Power Plants and level of household electrification

Energy Consumption - Pakistan 2011-15 2016-20 2021-30 2031-40 2041-50 Energy Consumption (% Growth) 3.7 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.7 % Share by Source Gas 43.9 45.4 42.3 32.9 Oil 27.5 24.3 19.5 14.9 14.1 Electricity Sources 15.7 16.2 17.5 17.9 16.9 Coal 11.3 12.4 22.8 33.6 Other (incl. LPG) 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 Source: Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Pakistan

Scenario-2 Clean Coal (gasification) + 15% RE + Clean Transport

Pursuing socio-economic development Electricity Demand Forecast of Sri Lanka - 2010-2030 Annual growth rate of 7-10% Double the demand in every 10 years

Pakistan’s Renewable Energy Potential (Summary) Wind: 346,000 MW Solar: 2.9 Million MW Hydro-power: 55,000 MW Cogeneration/Biomass/W2E: 4,000 MW Geothermal: 2,000 MW Alternate Fuels Large. TBD

Carbon Neutral Growth by 2020 SAARC Statement on Climate Change Emphasizing the overriding importance of socio-economic development and poverty eradication in our region, and convinced that reducing dependence on carbon in economic growth and promoting climate resilience will promote both development and poverty eradication in a sustainable manner;  Determined that South Asia should become a world leader in low-carbon technologies and renewable energy Carbon Neutral Growth by 2020 CO2 Emissions (kTon)

Cost of renewable energy…??

Domestic Sector electricity Consumption Distribution in Sri Lanka 2009 North South Common but differentiated responsibilities

Satellite Night Images South Asia Europe North America