Labour market trends and policy, Scotland 2015 Stephen Boyd, STUC UWS-Oxfam Partnership, Policy Forum 25 March 2015 Decent Work?

THE EMPLOYMENT BOOM? PART 1

Scottish Labour Market 2015 Relatively high employment (though yet to achieve pre-recession rate), falling unemployment (though still 50k above pre- recession level) Workers less likely to be full-time/employees More likely to be part-time, temporary, self- employed, under-employed Rapid increase in insecure forms of work (but poor information!) Unprecedented sustained collapse in median wage

Employees, self-employed (000s), Scotland,

Full-time, part-time jobs (000s), Scotland,

Underemployment, Scotland,

Change in employment rate (%) by age group, Scotland,

Real median wage (gross weekly earnings adjusted by both CPI and RPI inflation) by gender and job type, Scotland,

In employment on a zero-hour contract, UK,

Percentage of people in employment on a zero-hour contract

Employees feeling tense, worried, uneasy ‘all’, ‘most’ or ‘some’ of the time by usual weekly working hours (%), WERS 2011

Spend (% of GDP) on active labour market programmes,

REMARKABLE SURGE IN WOMEN’S EMPLOYMENT

Change in 16-64yrs employment rate (%), Nov-Jan 2013 to Nov-Jan 2015

16-64 years employment rate by gender, Scotland,

LABOUR MARKET POLICY PART 2

Diverging approaches Coalition Promote and extend flexibility of UK model Widen asymmetries of economic power; anti workplace democracy Scottish Government Social partnership Fair Work Living Wage Working Together Review Cabinet Secretary for Fair Work, Skills and Training

Programme for Government “We [also] need to make sure that those in work get fairly rewarded…A thriving economy depends on well-motivated, better paid workers. Our strong support for business and our measures to reduce inequality go hand in hand. Our society will be all the fairer and more successful when we end the blight of low pay”. Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister, November 2014

Programme for Government Commitments Range of measures to ‘expand the living wage’ Publish statutory guidance by end 2015 on how workforce-related matters should be taken into account in public contracts Gender balance on boards Business Pledge

Fair Work Convention “will be a powerful advocate of the partnership approach which characterises industrial relations in Scotland at their best” “will prioritise the role of the Living Wage and develop a Fair Work Framework for Scotland”

Scotland’s Economic Strategy “Promote Fair Work and build a labour market that provides sustainable and well-paid jobs” “Develop with key partners, such as business organisations and trade unions, innovative approaches to developing progressive workplace practices” “Bringing more people into the labour market is key to tackling poverty, inequality and social deprivation and improving health and wellbeing”

Barriers Starting from a bad place: deeply entrenched asymmetries of economic power (relatively low TU membership and collective bargaining coverage) UK’s distinct model of shareholder capitalism (uniquely febrile market for corporate control; poor corporate governance etc) Lack of capacity in key institutions: social partners, academia No tradition of social partnership Employer organisations: atomised, unrepresentative, ideological, poorly resourced (no analytical capability between them) Ownership and control too often beyond Scotland’s borders