TAE Presented to:. Market remains very strong 2 Key Market Drivers 3 Positives  Developed world economic growth outlook improving  Domestic economy.

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Presentation transcript:

TAE Presented to:

Market remains very strong 2

Key Market Drivers 3 Positives  Developed world economic growth outlook improving  Domestic economy finding a bottom  Chinese economic data looking less bad.  Geopolitical risks easing Negatives / Risks  Valuation capturing improvements in some instances  Short term risks could add some volatility  US managing the unravelling of QE  Lingering concerns regarding Chinese property market.

Developed world growth improving 4 Global manufacturing has been improving – synchronised growth. US remains strong boosted by improved competitiveness for manufacturing and monetisation of gas. Europe recovery has been the surprise. Japan is seeing confidence and inflation improve.

Chinese economy bottoming 5 Recent data has been supportive Issues – shadow banking, demographics, property bubble Potential Policy Responses  De-regulate interest rates  Reduce State influence in corporates  Reduce corruption and allow foreign investment  One child policy Industrial Production

Domestic economy improving 6 Post election bounce in confidence? Housing market showing signs of recovery Non mining infrastructure spend to kick in next year Consumer balance sheet has improved thanks to housing prices, stock prices and 5 years of de-gearing. Business Confidence

7 Inflows into equities accelerating –Sentiment towards equities has improved –Low cash rates driving a search for yield

8 Yields remain attractive –Stocks still provide much better income than cash or bonds –Earnings growth outlook improving –And risks generally lower than they were over recent years.

9 PE adjusted for subdued earnings –Earnings have been subdued in recent years which makes PE’s look high. –Adjusting for the 10 year average EPS suggests the market looks cheap –But will earnings rebound or are will they remain structurally lower?

10 PE capturing improvement in some areas –Following a strong run in markets some segments capturing improved outlook –PE looks expensive for defensives and small caps industrials –Focus is on finding companies with earnings leverage which is not yet captured in market forecasts.

11 What could go wrong?  US unravelling QE –Bond yields increasing pushing up cost of borrowing. –What impact on housing rebound and other economic activity? –Fiscal fade should ease as an offset  European political risks  Chinese growth below expectations

Broad Portfolio Positioning 12  Offshore plays (AMC, BXB, ANN, QBE).  Rotation out of bonds into equities (HGG, MQG, QBE).  Underweight defensive companies (WOW, TLS, Utilities).  Domestic housing related stocks (LLC, SGP, DLX).  Sustainable growth stocks (TME, SEK, CWN, SHL, AZJ, AIO).  Data has been more supportive for resources (RIO, BHP).

13 Best idea for the past quarter  Southern Cross Media –Best quality domestic media play – radio less exposed to negative structural trends –Pick up in confidence and pick up in radio advertising driving share price –Possible takeover target should Coalition follow through on adjusting cross media rules –We bought when severely out of favour and are now reducing a little given the risk / reward equation no longer as strong.

14 Worst idea for the past quarter  Wotif –High A$, strong competition and a loss of business in Asia has impacted WTF over the past year. –We retain a small position (1.5%) on the basis that the yield is strong so it is paying us to wait while they increase prices (still 40% below peers), introduce packaging, expand international offering and introduce advertising.

15 Australian Equities High Conviction Portfolio Performance as at 31 August 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

16 Australian Equities Socially Responsible Portfolio Performance as at 31 August 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

17 Australian Equities Income Portfolio Performance as at 31 August 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

18 Australian Hybrid Fixed Interest Portfolio Performance as at 31 August 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

19 Australian Bond Fund Performance as at 31 August 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

20 International Portfolio Performance as at 31 August 2013 Please note: Past performance is not an indication of future performance. No allowance has been made for taxation and fees are not taken into account.

21 Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Dalton Nicol Reid Pty Ltd, AFS Representative of DNR AFSL Pty Ltd ABN , AFSL It is general information only and is not intended to be a recommendation to invest in any product or financial service mentioned above. Whilst, Dalton Nicol Reid has used its best endeavours to ensure the information within this document is accurate it cannot be relied upon in any way and recipients must make their own enquiries concerning the accuracy of the information within. The general information in this document has been prepared without reference to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making any financial investment decisions we recommend you obtain legal and taxation advice appropriate to your particular needs. Investment in a Dalton Nicol Reid individually managed account can only be made on completion of all the required documentation. Past performance is not indication of future performance. Total returns shown are based on Dalton Nicol Reid’s model portfolio and have been calculated before taking Dalton Nicol Reid’s fees into account as actual performance on managed accounts is dependant on a number of factors including, but not limited to, timing of investment, non-managed stocks and portfolio execution. No allowance has been made for taxation.