The Human Population and it’s impact

How Has the Human Population Grown Historically Early Hunter Gatherers Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the Earth Practiced Intentional Birth Control Rise of Agriculture Necessary for Survival Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat Humans began to cultivate own food

C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities Food Produced in Country, Consumed in City Food wastes are no longer returned to soil Soil becomes less productive Waste of Populations Concentrated in Cities Population Control in Medieval Societies Infanticide Plagues D. Industrialization View of Children During Early Phases of Industrial Growth Valued as cheap source of income and cheap labor Exponential growth of populations By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Dropped Rise in standards of living Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introduced Increase in the cost of child rearing

MI L I O NS

Current World Population Population Clock Vital Events (per time unit) Global population was 6,379,870,732 On November 2, 2004 at 11:05 am The global population grows by: Nearly 4 persons per seconds Over 225,000 persons per day Over 82 million persons per year

Uneven distribution of population growth Developed – 0.1% per year Developing – 1.5% per year

Projections in 2050 10.7 billion World population growth – 1.22% per year

How Much is a Billion? 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes 1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days 1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years 1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds 1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban) 1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles)

Factors for population increase ability to expand into new habitats and climate zones emergence of modern agriculture improved health care, sanitation,sourcs of water

Human Population Dynamics There are just three sources of change in population size — fertility (births) mortality (deaths) "natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births migration Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base http://www Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html, then Online Demographic Aggregation CBR (crude birth rate) = # births / 1000 population 1990: 24 now: 20.6 CDR (crude death rate) = # deaths / 1000 population 1990: 9 now: 8.8 Growth Rate = (b + i) – (d + e) 1990: 1.5% now: 1.19% growth rates have come down

World Crude Birth Rates

World crude Death Rates

Totals Fertility Rate

Human Population Dynamics Total fertility rate (TFR) The average number of children born to a woman Average in developed countries = 1.5 Average in developing countries = 3.8 Worldwide 1990: 3.1 now: 2.76 Replacement fertility rate (RFR) The number of children a couple must have to replace themselves A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates Africa RFR = 2.5

Factors affecting fertility rate children part of labor force cost of raising and educating children availability of pension system World TFR has dropped from 5. 7 to 1.6

Factors affecting death rate increased life expectancy urbanization education and job opportunities for women

Infant Mortality Rate measure of a nations quality of life infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr) 1990: 62 now: 52.4 (normal in 1900: 200)

http://www. povertymap http://www.povertymap.net/pub/mipwa/sections/w-global/health-sanit/infant-mortality-2.htm

Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1 Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1.7 per cent; if this rate continues, the population will double in 42 years. Unabated, such a rate would lead to a point about 2000 years hence when the mass of humanity would weigh more, and be larger, than the Earth. But, the growth rate is decreasing

Population Pyramids Graphic device: bar graph shows the age and gender composition of a region pre-reproductive, reproductive, post-reproductive horizontal axis: gender male: left-hand female: right-hand absolute number of people or % vertical axis: age 5-year or 10-year age groups

Population Pyramid with young cohorts

Population Pyramids High Growth: Afghanistan Population Pyramids on the Web High Growth: Afghanistan

Population Pyramids Population Pyramids on the Web Moderate Growth: Mexico

Population Pyramids Population Pyramids on the Web Zero Growth: U.S.

Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United States

Population Pyramids Negative Growth: Italy Population Pyramids on the Web Negative Growth: Italy

Effects of Population Decline As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline 60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume more medical care Social Security costly public services Labor shortages require automation & immigration

Demographic Transition Movement of a nation from high population growth to low population as it develops economically Transition as a result of four stages Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate

Five Stages of the Demographic Transition Used to be 4, now 5 stages birth rates, death rates and growth rates systematically change through time as societies change: modernize, urbanize gain access to technology

Stage 1 high birth rates, high (at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates stage for much of human history, traditional societies practically no country today

Stage 2 high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates improvements in sanitation (water) and medicine in Europe during Industrial Revolution in developing countries since the 50s/60s much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

Stage 3 continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates, growth rates decline from high to lower levels change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rate economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children) Mexico today

Stage 4 & 5 Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates United States today Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates) several countries of Europe today (Austria)

Population Pyramids and Demographic Stages characteristics shapes of ‘pyramids’ wide base (true pyramid) wide middle (bulge), somewhat wider base urn- or bottle-shaped reversed pyramid different shapes--different dynamics

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base

Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition Stage 2: wide base stage 3: wide middle stage 4: slender stage 5: narrow base

What Is Family Planning? Definition Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire) Goals of Family Planning Not to limit births For couples to have healthy children For couples to be able to care for their children For couples to have the number of children that they want

Sustainable Cities

Definitions Urban (metropolitan) area = town plus its suburbs City = large number of people with a variety of professions who depend on resources from the outside of city boundary Rural area = an area with a population less than 2,500 people Village = group of rural households liked by custom, culture,family ties. Historical utilization of natural resources

Urbanization & Urban growth Degree of urbanization is percentage of population living in area of greater than 2,500 people Urban growth due to: natural increase - births immigration - poor are pulled to urban areas or are pushed from rural areas Trends of urban growth: Increase of 2% to 45% of people in urban areas since 1950 By 2050 about 66% of the world’s people will be living in urban areas.

Urbanization & Urban growth The number of large cities is mushrooming Today, more than 400 cities have over 1 mil. or more people. 18 megacities with over 10 mil. People i.e.Tokyo (26 mil), Mexico City (18 mil), New York (17 mil). 4 Hypercities (more than 20 million people)- Mumbai(India) , Lagos(Nigeria), Dakha(Bangladesh) Sao Paulo(Brazil) 2009 :38% of the people in live in cities. 2025 it will be 54%. Many of these cities are already short on water, have waste & pollution problems.

Urbanization & Urban Growth Urban growth is slower in developed countries 75% of the people live in cities. But by 2030 it will be 81%. Poverty is becoming increasingly urbanized slums, squatter settlements and shantytowns at least 1 billion people live in crowed slums of inner cities. No access to water, sewer, electricity, education etc. 100 mil people are homeless & sleep on the streets Case study - Mexico City

United States Urbanization 1800- 2008 = 5%-79% Migration from rural areas Migration to developed rural areas Large central cities to suburbs North east to South and West Urban sprawl, growth of low-density development on the edge of cities. Encouraged by: - availability of cheap land, (forests, agriculture fields etc.). - government loans guarantees for new single-family homes - government & state funding of highways - low-cost gasoline encourage car use - low interest mortgage

Urban sprawl: growth of low density housing availability of cheap land government loans for new single family homes government and state funding of highways low cost gasoline tax laws encourage home ownership multiple political jurisdictions which do not work together to control urban growth

Concentric Circle Model Central business district (CBD) Deteriorating transition zone Worker’s homes Middle-class suburbs Commuter's zone

Sector Model High-rent residential Intermediate-rent residential Low-rent residential Education and recreation Transportation Industrial Core (CBD)

Multiple-Nuclei Model CBD Wholesale, light manufacturing Low-rent residential Intermediate-rent residential High-rent residential Heavy manufacturing Outlying business district Residential Suburb Industrial Suburb

Major Urban Problems in U.S. Deteriorating services Aging infrastructures Budget crunches from lost tax revenues as businesses and affluent people leave Rising poverty with violence, drugs, decay Urban sprawl - growth of low-density development on edges of cities and towns 9 consequences of “bad growth”

Advantages of Urbanization recycling more economically feasible decreased birth rates reduces environmental pressures per capita expenditures on environmental protection high in urban areas population concentration impacts biodiversity less

Disadvantages of Urbanization Destruction of plant life - what is $ value? Cities produce little of own food Urban heat island effect --> dust dome Huge ecological footprint Water supply and flooding problems 5 ways to reduce demand on reservoirs and waste treatment systems High pollution exposure Noise pollution

The enormous amount of heat generated creates an urban heat island Additional heat changes climate of surrounding area

Transportation and Urban Development Determines where people live, where they go to work and buy stuff, how much land is paved and exposure to air pollution Cities grow up if they can’t grow out; more prone to use mass transit Urban sprawl due to cheap gas and land and highways; dispersed car-centered cities use 10x more energy

Smart growth tools for cities Regulations Zoning Planning Protection Taxes Tax Break Revitalization

Sustainable Cities Initiative: International Development Days Vancouver, BC October 2 – 4, 2002 Sustainable Cities Initiative: Opportunities for the Canadian Private Sector Maureen C. Shaw Industrial Accident Prevention Association October 3, 2002 Email: mshaw@iapa.on.ca Website: www.iapa.on.ca

Vision "A World where risks are controlled because everyone believes suffering and loss are morally, socially and economically unacceptable." Mission To improve the quality of life in workplaces and communities we serve by being an internationally recognized leader in providing effective programs, products and services for the prevention of injury and illness.

Essential Components of Sustainable Cities Economic Security Environmental Integrity living within ecological limits protecting natural resources responsible consumption patterns; re-use & recycling measurable carrying capacity indicators local, regional economic viability opportunities for employment economic justice/equity reduce gap between rich and poor economic security appropriate technology and economics long term view not short term gains Quality of Life Democratic Participation diversity cooperation health education communication compassion efficient, affordable, accessible transportation linking jobs to housing and communities honouring culture pluralism and tolerance communication, education, information, collaboration all stakeholders represented and involved power from within the community belief in the possibility of change democracy accountability personal dignity grassroots organizations Source Dr. Warren Flint Five E’s Unlimited

Sustainable Cities Traditional Corporate Responsibilities Ensuring Health, Safety, Wellness & Security of Employees Management of Natural Resources  Conservation Minimizing Waste Recycling Minimizing Pollution Compliance with Regulations & Legislation Based on European Sustainable Cities Report

Sustainable Cities Sharing Best Practices  Mentoring Corporate Community & Workplace Leadership Imperatives Sharing Best Practices  Mentoring Concern for Individuals Colleagues & Neighbours Social Responsibility to Community & Workplace Activities Support of Cultural Heritage Political Influence Locally Nationally Maureen C. Shaw - IAPA