Perceptions vs. Reality: Impacts on Policies and Democracy Robert Manchin Gallup Europe OECD World Forum, Istanbul June 28, 2007 in a post- Heisenberg Political Context

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 2 Democracy: Aligning Perceptions? Evidences and survey evidences

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 3 The Sun goes around the Earth % who answered “true” Source: EB 55.2,2001: CCEB

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 4 What is evidence for some is not shared by others: impacts of policy / for democracy ? Most frequently practicing believers: Roman Catholic ProtestantOrthodoxMuslim The continents on which we live have been moving for millions of years % of yes answers Human beings developed from earlier species of animals The Sun goes around the Earth Source: EB 55.2,2001: CCEB

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 5 Measuring subjective well-being, satisfaction with services are related: Can we trust comparisons?

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 6 Life satisfaction and per capita relative GDP Per capita volume index at level of total GDP, 2002 Life satisfaction, TopBox%, Candidate Countries Accessing Countries Member Countries

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 7 Random error or cultural disposition? How many days out of the last 30 days you had at least two hours of sunshine? Mean difference in reported and actual number of days with min. 2 hours of sunshine in the previous month at given location + 9 days - 9 days source: European Crime and Safety Survey 2005 / Meteorology databases

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 8 Optimism related to economic development? source: Gallup Soul of Cities,

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 9 Optimism related to Human Development? source: Gallup Soul of Cities,

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 10 Perception and Reality II. “Corruption is widespread in government” perception vs. respondent’s past 12 months experience based on interactions with public sector source: Gallup World Poll / Gallup Balkan Monitor

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 11 Measuring reality to manage implementation of policy professionally Q5. Which currency did you use for your last cash payment today? % by day The example of Slovenian euro changeover source: FL194 Slovenian Changeover 2007

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 12 Even if government is not setting new policy – people make “adjustments” to unspoken realities... The public’s expected date of euro adoption in Hungary source: FL175b, 2005 : FL191, 2006AUT

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 13 Implications for Democracy II Creating democracy by ousting Saddam: worth it? (geocoded answers: Red totally agree) (Gallup Poll of Baghdad, 2003) In your opinion, why did the U.S.A. and Great Britain decide to invade Iraq? (open-ended) To rob Iraq’s oil To topple/depose Saddam’s regime Benefit for U.S. people To colonize/occupy and weaken the Middle East To control Iraq wealth/fortune To control Iraq minerals; phosphorus, phosphate, mercury, sulfur and uranium To change the Middle East “map” as U.S. and Israel want To destroy weapons of mass destruction All other responses No reason/Don’t know To assist Iraqi people source: Gallup Poll of Baghdad, 2003

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 14 Implications for Democracy III: the will of the people -- Hamas, Fatah, Palestine source: Gallup Palestine Peace Poll, 2005 December

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe Slide 15 Not a bug: a feature l Democracies work in the context of superficial popular perceptions and votes l Measuring “reality” has its immanent limitations – within measurement as well as outside l Policy advisory should focus on perception management as well l Survey design and interpretation always have to pay a close attention to the difference between subjective objective realities, to remain valid, and helpful in policy debates

Public Opinion Research: Fighting the War Against Error