ADF: Impact of HIV/AIDS and Governance by Prof. Alan Whiteside Commissioner CHGA The Epidemic and its Consequences for Africa

Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions

HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, end – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% No data available outside region 2003 Source: UNAIDS, 2002.

HIV prevalence rates among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in urban sites in Cameroon: Bamenda Limbe Yaounde Garoua % HIV-positive Source: National AIDS Programme, Cameroon ( ). Data compiled by the US Census Bureau

Epidemic Curves, HIV 27Aug01-Report I:Epidem’gy& Lit.p.27 T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 HIVprevalence A B

Epidemic Curves, HIV and AIDS 27Aug01-Report I:Epidem’gy& Lit.p.27 T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 HIVprevalence AIDS-cumulative B 1 A B

Epidemic Curves, HIV, AIDS & Impact 27Aug01 -Report I:Epidem’gy & Lit. p.27 T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 HIV prevalence B 1 A B AIDS - cumulative Impact

The Three Challenges Prevention Appropriate care and treatment Impact mitigation But remember this is a long wave epidemic

Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions

All orphans and orphans due to AIDS by HIV prevalence, Uganda, by year Year million 1 million 1.5 million 2 million Total Number 0 6% 12% HIV Prevalence Total Orphans AIDS Orphans HIV Prevalence

Estimated and projected deaths 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2002) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision ,200 1,600 2,000 Deaths (thousands) Without AIDSWith AIDS

Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions

Estimated increase in adult death rates relative to the 1985 rates

Mortality in Swaziland 17

Declining life expectancy Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: Source: UNAIDS, Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic

Percent of children under age 15 that are orphans by year, region and cause, Percentage of children under 15 years who are orphaned by year, region and cause Sub-Saharan Africa AsiaLatin America Source: Children on the Brink, 2002

By 2010 orphans will account for 15-25% of all children in 12 countries in SAA Source: UNICEF

Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions: AIDS and Governance

By-elections in Zambia (number) source IDASA

Non-participation by young women Non-registration HIV prevalence _ _ + + Pearson’s r =.7 Level of analysis: the nine provinces

Loss of Friends or Relatives to AIDS (Afrobarometer)

ADF: Impact of HIV/AIDS and Governance by Prof. Alan Whiteside Commissioner CHGA The Epidemic and its Consequences for Africa