Photo Seattle Times, 9/2012 Use of Advanced Dispersion Modeling Examples for the Northwest Susan O’Neill, Research Scientist USDA Forest Service, AirFire.

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Presentation transcript:

Photo Seattle Times, 9/2012 Use of Advanced Dispersion Modeling Examples for the Northwest Susan O’Neill, Research Scientist USDA Forest Service, AirFire Team

Fire Info Fuels Total Consumption Time Rate Emissions Plume Rise Dispersion / Trajectories SMARTFIRE2 IRWIN Rx Sys Manual Other FCCS FCCS-LF NFDRS Hardy GVDS LANDFIRE* Ag* Other CONSUME 3 FOFEM FEPS EPM FLAMBE FINN ClearSky (Ag)* Satellite* Other Rx / WF FEPS FOFEM EPM WRAP Idealized Manual Other FEPS Literature EPM FOFEM FLAMBE FINN Other Briggs SEV Manual Other HYSPLIT CalPuff CMAQ VSMOKE BlueSky Modeling Framework v 3.5 Large uncertainties exist with each modeling step Met WRF MM5 NARR Station data Idealized

Models Available Online BlueSky Wildfire Operational Runs BlueSky Playground – Do your own smoke (PM2.5) modeling NOAA HYSPLIT (Dispersion and Trajectories) AIRPACT (Physical and Chemical processes) “Picking a model of choice for the day is a little like speed-dating: too little time/information to make up the mind leading to regrets by the end of the date/shift.” - Wes Adkins, Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Juneau, AK

Daily BlueSky Production Runs 1/31/2015 Satellite Fire Detections km 4 km 2 km 6 km 4 km 4 km, 12 km 1 km

The website provides information on status of the runs Successful! Running late…. No Fires Failures show up in red.

Daily BlueSky Production Runs 1/31/2015 Satellite Fire Detections & PM2.5, 12km

Carlton Complex Washington State ,000 acres

8/4/2014 6am 12 km NWS NAM 1.33 km UW WRF 4 km AIRPACT

8/4/2014 Noon 12 km NWS NAM 1.33 km UW WRF 4 km AIRPACT

Carlton Complex August 2014 Washington Smoke Blog On this gorgeous, clear day with no smoke, let's take a look at the differences between two air quality monitors located less than 9 miles apart in the same Methow Valley. The blue graphs indicate 1-hr average concentrations of PM2.5 while the red data points are 24-hr averages. Note that while the 24- hr values trended rather similar for the two sites (expected as they are spatially close) the peak 1-hr values differed greatly! Posted by Mike Broughton, FWS, ARA

Carlton Complex Z, 8/4/2014 6am, 1.33 km Domain Winthrop Twisp

Carlton Complex Z, 8/4/2014 6am, 12 km Domain Winthrop Twisp

BlueSky Playground – allows users to do custom runs playground.airfire.org

NOAA HYSPLIT Dispersion Trajectory – Simulates where a parcel of air would travel, given: A Release Location Release Height Date and Time Many meteorological choices SPLIT.php SPLIT.php

Bend, Oregon Smoke Intrusions Project Gain a better understanding of meteorological conditions around Bend to minimize risk of smoke intrusions. Improve our understanding of the smoke dispersion model performance. Field Work Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Monitors Meteorological Stations E-Samplers (PM2.5) Modeling 1km 4km

NWS 1km 10/6/2014 5am

PNW 4km 10/6/2014 5am

Current & Future Work/Activities BlueSky Canada & include Canadian Emissions NOAA HYSPLIT – Updating BSF BlueSky-lite Updated Emission Factors Continue working with the Interagency Wildfire Air Quality Response Program SF2 integration with IRWIN

Upcoming Conference IAWF 13th International Wildland Fire Safety Summit and 4th Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire, Boise, ID April Workshop: Wildland Fire Smoke Health Effects Research and Tools to Inform Public Health Policy and Recommendations (8:30 am 4/20/2015)

Thank you! Susan O’Neill Many thanks to a cast of thousands (OK, maybe 10’s). Here’s an incomplete list (in no particular order): Sue FergusonJanice Peterson Sim LarkinMiriam Rorig Susan O’NeillRobert Solomon Candace KrullJoel Dubowy Ramesh NarasimhanPete Lahm Roger OttmarSusan Prichard Sonoma Tech, Inc.