Thailand’s Energy Situation

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Presentation transcript:

Thailand’s Energy Situation EPR BWR PWR Dr. Kamol TAKABUT CEO Advisor – Italian Thai Power Company President of Thai–French Technical Association - TFTA February 15, 2012 Swissotel Le Concorde Hotel , Bangkok, Thailand

THAI-FRENCH TECHNICAL ASSOCIATION, TFTA ACTIM Club, the Agency for the International Promotion of French Technology and Trade ACTIM THAILAND CLUB (ATC) TFTA 2 nd President 1995-1996 Mr.Siva Charoenpong 1 st President 1993-1994 Dr. Chao Thongma 3 rd President 1997-1998 Mr.Siri Klaimongkol 7 th President d’ATC 2005-2009 Mr.Suchai Roywirutn and 1 st Predident of TFTA 5 th President 2001-2002 Mr.Ruangrit Poolsawat 6 th President 2003-2004 Mr.Ratanapong Jongdamgerng 4 th President 1999-2000 Mr.Banchong Chayakul 2 nd President 2011-2013 Dr.Kamol TAKABUT

Consumption of Primary Commercial Energy Import: 26% KBD of crude oil equivalent Domestic: 74% 2% Hydro/Imported Electricity 17% Coal/Lignite Domestic: 33% Import: 67% Import: 20% Natural Gas 44% Domestic: 80% Oil 37% Domestic: 16% Import: 84% Consumption Oil Natural Gas Coal Electricity Total Growth Rate (%)* 2.2 14.7 1.2 11.6 7.3 KBD - thousand barrels per day Ministry of Energy September 2010 * Preliminary data

Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption in 2010 Total Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption: THB 1,796 billion* Total Value of Energy Import: THB 895 billion Total Value of Energy Export: THB 263.3 billion Petroleum Products Electricity Natural Gas Lignite/Coal Renewable Energy Total Growth Rate (%)* 15.6 11.2 39.2 2.7 0.8 13.8 Ministry of Energy September 2010 * Preliminary data

Forecast of Primary Commercial Energy Demand Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent   2006 2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011f Demand 1,545 1,604 1,618 1,663 1,785 1,860 Oil 674 667 634 643 657 671 Natural Gas 579 615 648 682 782 822 Lignite/Coal 248 279 301 303 307 315 Hydro/Imported Elec. 44 43 36 35 39 52 Growth Rate (%)  1.6 3.8 0.9 2.8 7.2 4.2 -2.3 -1.0 -5.0 1.4 2.2 2.3 6.2 5.4 5.2 14.4 5.1 6.9 12.8 7.7 0.6 2.6 35.2 -2.5 -17.4 -1.1 14.3 32.7 p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data KBD - thousand barrels per day September 2010

Forecast of Natural Gas Demand, by Sector Unit: MMSCFD Sector 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011f Growth Rate (%) Power Gen. 2,257 2,346 2,423 2,435 2,717 2,802 0.2 11.6 3.1 GSP 527 572 583 599 677 750 2.5 13 10.9 Industry 291 347 361 387 517 580 6.9 33.7 12.1 NGV 11 24 77 143 175 202 84.2 22.6 15.4 Total 3,086 3,288 3,444 3,564 4,086 4,334 3.2 14.2 6.1 Remarks: Heating Value: 1 cubic foot = 1,000 BTU p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data September 2010

EGAT Monthly Peak Demand Megawatt, MW 23,900.2 MW 14.00 h May 24, 2011 Decreasing 0.5 % from 2010 24,009.9 MW 14.00 h May 10, 2010 Increasing 8.9 % from 2009 15.3% 8.4% 7.1% 2.1% 9.3% -0.5% 11.5% 2.7% -2.4% 2010 1.5% -0.6% -0.9% 11.5% 1.3% 6.0% 2.2% 6.8% 5.4% 1.5% 3.0% 3.6% -6.0% 2009 12.7% 2011 2008 Source: EGAT Report Nov 2011 J F M A M J J A S O N D

Electric Power Consideration ENVIROMENT Electricity Price System Reliability 10

PDP 2010 Thailand Fuel Mix for Power Generation

Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2010) Year 2010 - 2030 Installed Capacity at End of 2009 29,212 MW Total New Capacity (2010-2030) + 54,005 MW Decommissioning (Retirement - 17,671 MW Total Capacity by end of 2030 65,547 MW 13 Blocks of 800 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant 5 Units of 1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant 9 Units of 800 MW of Cleaner Coal Fired Thermal Plant

Alternatives Energy Options Geothermal Energy Wind Power Biomass Power Plant Alternatives Energy Options Nuclear Power Plant Solar Power Plant Mini-Hydroelectric 13

Installed Generating Capacity November 2011 Thermal 7,929.7 MW (25.2%) Combined Cycle 17,474.0 MW (55.6%) Gas Turbine & Diesel 124.4 MW 0.4% TNB (HVDC) 300 MW (1.0%) Renewable 5,618.6 MW (17.9%) Total Capacity 31,446.7 MW (as of 30 November 2011) Hydro (Domestic) 3,428.7 MW (10.9%) Hydro (Imported 1,884.6 MW (6.0%) Other 305.3 MW (1.0%) EGAT December 2011

Electricity Generation 2010 (Based on type of fuel) Renewables 1.4% Coal Import 7.7% Oil 0.6% Natural Gas 72.4 % Lignite 9.9% Hydro 3.3% From Loas And Malaysia 4.6% Total Electricity Generation Diesel 0.1 % 160,113 GWh Source: Electrical Generating Authority of Thailand - EGAT 2011 15 15

Electricity Generation Jan – Nov 2011 (Based on type of fuel) Net Energy Generation January - November 2011 146,788 GWh Renewable Energy 19,617 GWh 13.4% Natural Gas 97,886 GWh 66.7% Imported Coal 12,022 GWh 8.2% Renewable Energy Heavy Oil 1,644 GWh 1.1% Hydro (Imported) 10,121 GWh 51.6% Biomass 2,365 GWh 12.1% Lignite 15,482 GWh 10.5% Hydro (Domestic) 7,123 GWh 36.3% Diesel 26 GWh 0.02 % Malaysia 111 GWh 0.1% Other 7.0 GWh 0.04%

Electricity Distribution in 2010 By Customers MEA – Metropolitan Electricity Authority PEA – Provincial Electricity Authority By Sectors

Thank you for your attention