Global Scenarios to be used for the GECAFS scenario exercise Monika Zurek FAO, Rome GECAFS 1st Caribbean Scenarios Meeting, 1Sep 05

Drivers, Activities and Outcomes relevant to Developing Scenarios for analysing interactions between GEC and Food Systems Societal Interests that relate to Food Systems Food Security Environmental Security Other Securities Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demography Economics Socio-political context Cultural context Science & Technology I I Food System OUTCOMES contributing to: Interactions among DRIVERS Naturally- induced drivers e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Other societal interests Food Security Environmental Security / Natural Capital: I GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nutrient availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level Food System ACTIVITIES D Arrow D = Direct feedback to GEC from Food System Activities Arrows I = Indirect feedback to GEC from Food Systems Outcomes

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to Food System ACTIVITIES Other societal goals Income Employment Wealth Social & political capital Human capital Infrastructure Peace Insurance Food Security Environmental Security / Natural Capital Ecosystems stocks, flows Ecosystem services Access to NC assured FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety Affordability Allocation Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: resource inputs, farmers, raw materials Processing & packaging food Distribution & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, consumption

Possibilities for linking scenarios across scales Take full stories of global scenarios and “translate” into regional stories. Develop regional scenarios based on rationale for choosing global scenarios, the assumptions global scenarios make and the outcomes of global scenarios, ensuring that outcomes of regional scenarios do not conflict with outcomes of global scenarios.

Global Scenarios exercises which include GEC variables IPCC (climate) World Water Vision (water) Global Scenarios Group OECD Environmental Outlook (FAO 2015/2030 (projection)) GEO-3 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

Global scenarios to be used for GECAFS IPCC GEO3 MA A1 Policy first Global Orchestration A2 Market first Order from Strength B1 Security first TechnoGarden B2 Sustainability first Adapting Mosaic

Indirect Drivers of Change Direct Drivers of Change MA Framework Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework) Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework) Science and Technology Cultural and Religious Direct Drivers Indirect Ecosystem Services Human Well-being Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or removal Technology adaptation and use External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Consequences of cross-scale feedbacks Continual and reciprocal feedbacks between humans and other components of ecosystems people nature Ecosystems develop in different ways in the different scenarios, because of the different events and decisions in society (including social response to ecosystem change). * These differences occur even though the basic ecological assumptions are the same in all scenarios.

Global Orchestration Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic Techno Garden Market First Industrial Nations Developing Nations Demo-graphics 2050 population: 8.1 billion 2050 population: 9.6 billion 2050 population: 9.5 billion 2050 population: 8.8 billion low Average income growth high medium similar to Order from Strength but with increasing growth rates toward 2050 lower than Global Orchestration, but catching up toward 2050 Income distribution becomes more equal similar to today similar to today, then becomes more equal Overall trend in technology advances medium-low medium in general; high for environmental technology International cooperation strong weak—international competition weak—focus on local environment Attitude toward environ-mental policies reactive proactive—learning proactive

Dominant Approach for Sustainability Global Orchestration (global & reactive) focus on macro-scale policy reform together with a socially conscious globalization, reactive approach to env. management Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci Create demand for environmental protection via economic growth and social improvements; public goods Redefinition of the public and private sector roles; improving market performance; focus on global public good Increase global equity; public health; global education

Dominant Approach for Sustainability Order from Strength (regionalized & reactive) retreat from global institutions results in a fragmented world, focus on national security and protectionism, reactive approach to env. mgmt Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci Reactive problem-solving by individual nations; sectoral approaches, creation of parks and protected reserves Regional trade blocs, mercantilism, self-sufficiency Security and protection

Dominant Approach for Sustainability Adapting Mosaic (Regionalized & pro-active) retreat from global institutions, focus on strengthened local institutions and local learning, proactive approach to env. mgmt Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci Learning via management and monitoring, shared management responsibility, adjustment of governance structures to resource users, common-property institutions Focus on local development; trade rules allow local flexibility/interpretation; local non-market rights Local communities linked to global communities; local equity

Dominant Approach for Sustainability Techno Garden (global & pro-active) emphasis on development of technologies to substitute for ecosystem services, globalized world, proactive approach to manage ES via technology Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci Green technology, eco-efficiency, tradeable ecological property rights Global reduction of tariff boundaries, fairly free movement of goods, capital and people, global markets in ecological property Improving individual and community technical expertise; policies follow opportunities; competition

Market first Scenario (GEO-3) wealth of nations and the optimal play of market forces dominate social and political agendas globalization and liberalization to enhance corporate wealth, create new enterprises and livelihoods, and so help people and communities to afford to insure against — or pay to fix — social and environmental problems powers of state officials, planners and lawmakers to regulate society, economy and the environment continue to be overwhelmed by expanding demands

Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios

Land use changes in the MA scenarios

The MA scenarios and food production (1) In all scenarios food production increases, but food security is not achieved Global Orchestration: Rapid (highest) growth in food demand (-> econ dev, urbanization), part. for meat Growth in demand about met by increases in production via yield improvements and increased trade Per capita availability highest of all scenarios

The MA scenarios and food production (2) Order from Strength Growth in demand mainly due to population increase Demand only partly met by increased production via area expansion, low trade Cost of food increases Number of malnourished children highest of all scenarios Adapting Mosaic Growth in demand due to population growth Increase in production via area expansion, but more trade opportunity Food more produced locally Better the OS but slow increases in calorie availability

The MA and GEO-3 scenarios and food production (3) TechnoGarden Increase in demand due to population growth and economic improvements Demand met via yield improvements and increased trade Calorie availability similar to GO, but still malnourished children GEO-3 Market First Decrease of % of hungry people, but total numbers stay the same (pop. growth)

Cereal Production in 2050 in the MA Scenarios

Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios

Outcomes of the scenarios analysis (1) Focus on increasing the flow of provisioning services often leads to reductions in supporting, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. This may reduce the future capacity of ecosystems to provide services. Monitoring ALL ecosystem services will increase society’s capacity to avert large disturbances of ecosystem services, or adapt to them rapidly when they occur.

Human Well-being across the scenarios

Outcomes of the scenario analysis (1) The future will represent a mix of approaches and consequences described in the scenarios, as well as events and innovations that have not yet been imagined. All scenarios show different trade-offs between possible management strategies currently discussed in various policy fora.

Outcomes of the scenario analysis (2) The MA scenarios examine the need to develop and expand mechanisms of ecosystem management that: avoid large ecosystem changes (by reducing stress on ecosystems), allow for the possibility of large ecosystem changes (by choosing reversible actions, experimenting cautiously, and monitoring appropriate ecological indicators), increase capacity of societies to adapt to large ecosystem changes (diversifying the portfolio of ecosystem services and developing flexible governance systems that adapt effectively to ecosystem change), and acknowledge the implicit trade-offs that arise as part of available management strategies among ecosystem services and between ecosystem services and human well-being impacts.