Scenarios for Uncertainty Risk Analysis for Water Resources Planning and Management Institute for Water Resources 2008

Uncertainties Average house value Hurricane track Forward speed of storm Footprint of project Sea level rise Channel depth Budgets and funding Mean stream flow Mean day percent of shade Cost/yd. concrete Land use patterns/rates Redevelopment rate in NOLA Some uncertainties dwarf all others

Landscape Scale Studies Global importance Affect millions of people Great variety of wickedly complex problems Major uncertainties common Many possible futures

Examples LaCPR MsCIP Upper Mississippi and Tributaries Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District Puget Sound Columbia River Coastal Louisiana Everglades

When One Is Not Enough Single most likely without project condition exists Traditional planning approach Address quantity and model uncertainty within that scenario More than one possible future and they are significantly different Scenario planning Probabilistic scenario analysis

When to Use Scenario Planning Scenario Planning Deterministic Planning Standard Decision Making Consequence UncertaintyMuch Grave Little Minor

Scenario Planning Is Consistent With P&G It is not an alternative to P&G It is an enhancement for situations with significantly different futures possible Scenario planning modifies tasks in some steps

Traditional P&G Planning It’s largely deterministic Process relies on a single most likely alternative future forecast Desire for single right answer Often anchored in present Adversarial--legitimate differences in views of uncertain future

Forecasting & Comparing Criteria Plan Effects Baseline Risk Existing Risk Future Risk if No Action Future Risk with Management Option A Before & After Comparison With & Without Option Comparison TargetGap Analysis Time

Most Likely Future Condition We labor in uncertainty A single forecast of the future will be wrong Thus, planning is based on what could be not necessarily what will be What could be is wide open to debate We cannot ignore it The consequences of being wrong may be serious

Scenario Planning Developed in second half of 20 th century (Europe) Result of failure of traditional planning Deterministic view of future Forecasts were wrong

Barrow Coastal Problem Even small projects can be complex!

Barrow’s Coast

Change Storms and erosion Global warming Less ice cover-major issue Social & economic infrastructure Cultural consequences

Ivu

What Scenarios Are Narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out Neither predictions nor strategies Hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in problem solving

Steps to Scenarios 1) Scenario team 2) Decision focus 3) Brainstorm a list of key factors 4) Distinguish pre-determined elements from uncertainties 5) Identifying a few scenario logics 6) Flesh out scenarios

Scenario Team Participants carefully recruited to include people with Thorough knowledge of the problem Diverse backgrounds Range of levels of management, perspectives, and roles Variety of intellectual disciplines

Decision Focus Identify key decision Develop useful questions to ask about the decision To be useful scenarios must teach relevant lessons to decision makers Must speak to decisions or direct concerns Define time frame of scenario Affects range of movement and creativity within scenario

Brainstorm Key Factors No idea is evaluated at first Identify driving forces and key trends The most significant elements in external environment Consider 5 general categories that interact to create complex, interesting plots Social Technological Economic Environmental Political forces. Each study must compile its own driving forces and key trends

What Are We Looking For? Which key forces seem inevitable or pre-determined? Trends unlikely to vary significantly in any scenario should be reflected, implicitly or explicitly, in each scenario Which forces are most likely to define or significantly change the nature or direction of the scenarios? Measured by two criteria How uncertain are you of its outcome? How important is it to solving your problem(s)? Scenarios address things that are both very important and very uncertain

How Can I Construct Scenarios Deductive approach Prioritize list of key factors Construct a 2 x 2 scenario matrix based on 2 most critical uncertainties One method each participant gets 25 points to assign to different the forces on the list

How Do We Flesh Out Scenarios? Consider Systems and Patterns: Systems Thinking Studying the way the parts of a system interact Useful to map out events, patterns, and structure individually then create systems diagrams together Build Narratives Once basic logics of different worlds are determined, weave pieces together to form a narrative Beginning Middle End How could we get from present to this new scenario? What events are necessary?

Flesh Out Scenarios (cont.) Identify characters to tell story around Individuals, stakeholders or institutions that espouse specific changes Known (real) Invented (hypothetical) May be driving forces May crystallize logic of scenario

Typical Plots Each scenario should be different, yet relevant to focal question Some archetypical plot lines arise regularly

Common Plots Winners & losers Crisis & response Good news/bad news Evolutionary change Revolution Tectonic Change Cycles Infinite Possibility The Lone Ranger Generations Perpetual Transition

Tips for Scenarios 1.Stay Focused 2.Keep It Simple 3.Keep It Interactive 4.Plan to Plan and Allow Enough Time 5.Don’t Settle for a Simple High, Medium, and Low 6.Avoid Probabilities or “Most Likely” Plots 7. Avoid Drafting Too Many Scenarios 8. Invent Catchy Names for the Scenarios 9. Make the Decision Makers Own the Scenarios 10. Budget Sufficient Resources for Communicating the Scenarios

Then What? Identify future scenarios Do analysis (good science) Evaluate plans against all scenarios Choose most robust plan Runoff P-loading Wetter Dryer Heavy Light

Two Basic Ways to Proceed Evaluate each plan against each of the four scenarios (e.g., using MCDA results) Results of this evaluation are compared across plans to select a plan Which plan does best (robustness) regardless of the future realized?

Two Basic Ways to Proceed Choose one of the four scenarios as most likely Proceed as usual through the selection process Evaluate the recommended plan against the other three remaining scenarios Unacceptable results in any scenario Adaptive management Reformulate Another plan is selected

Who’s Doing It? Industry Europe COE

Take Away Points Landscape scale problems complex & diverse Uncertainty is everywhere Scenario planning to address uncertainty MCDA needed to address complexity & collaborative planning initiative Scenario analysis--MCDA in scenario planning context is a potential solution

What’s the Without Condition? It is critical to plan formulation It is critical to plan evaluation It is a source of adversarial processes See Washington Post vs. COE--Upper Miss And you do not know what it is!