WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS

The World Energy Assessment Established in 1998 by UNDP, DESA, WEC Will serve as input to CSD-9 preparatory process, CSD-9 and beyond (Rio +10) Two phases: Editorial phase : Collaborative effort to provide scientific and technical analysis for the report and discussions – September August 2000 Consultative and Outreach phase : Provide input to editorial phase and disseminate findings and encourage discussion and debate – April April 2001 Funding: Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the Energy Foundation and the United Nations Foundation

World Primary Energy Use, 1998 EJ % Fossil Fuels32080 oil142 natural gas85 coal93 Renewables5614 large hydro9 traditional38 “new” ren.9 Nuclear266 Total402100

Present Energy Consumption Primary Energy Consumption Industrialized Countries Developing Countries Population: 1.34 billion % of fossil fuels: 81% Energy = 6,701 x 10 6 toe 5.0 toe/capita Population: 4.56 billion % of fossil fuels: 70% Energy = 3,861 x 10 6 toe 0.85 toe/capita

Issues related to the present energy system Energy approaches affect many important issues: Social Economic Environmental and Health Security

Investments in Energy Supply Investment in energy supply projected at $ billion per year for the next 20 years, depending on path chosen Less than 10% of total overall investments Issue: Mobilization of capital for energy supply investments

Oil Imports as Share of Export Earnings in Various Developing Countries, Source: World Bank, 1999

2 billion people have no access to electricity and an additional 2 billion people have access to unreliable electricity. 2 billion people cook using traditional fuels. Energy and Development

Energy and Women Heavy burden on millions of women and children: Millions are spending hours a day carrying fuel and water Millions are being exposed to high levels of indoor air pollution leading to premature deaths Example: The World Health Organization estimates that air pollution indoor causes 2.7–3.0 million premature deaths a year, or 5–6 percent of global mortality.

Environmental Degradation Energy activities contribute to indoor air pollution, urban air pollution, acidification and global warming: 86% of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide Greenhouse gas emissions: 78% of carbon dioxide, 23% of methane A significant fraction of emissions of small particulate matter Significant fractions of many other environmental challenges

Energy Resources Conventional oil and gas could last at least years. Total fossil fuel resources will last at least several hundreds of years There will be no resource-constraint driven transformation of the world energy system for a long time to come Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times current global energy use

Oil imports in OECD, % North America 4563 Europe Pacific9096 Total OECD

Towards a more Sustainable Future  The magnitude of the change required is not small  The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneously  A paradigm shift is needed The linkages described lead to a demand for change of the present energy system development

Sustainable Energy: Energy that is produced and used in ways that simultaneously support human development over the long-term in all its social, economic, and environmental dimensions

Technical Options for a more Sustainable Future Improved Energy Efficiency - especially at the point of end- use in buildings, electric appliances, vehicles, and production processes. More Renewable Energy: such as biomass, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal Advanced Energy Technologies: next generation fossil fuel technologies nuclear technologies, if the issues associated with nuclear can be resolved.

Outlook for More Efficient Use of Energy Cost effective over the next 20 years to reduce primary energy consumed per unit of energy services OECD Countries 25-35% Developing Countries 30- >45% Economies in transition>40% Greater gains in efficiency feasible with advanced energy technologies that offer multiple benefits

Outlook for wind energy Rapid global growth, 30% per year 14 GW total installed capacity in 1999 Rapid cost decline “Baseload” wind power possible Huge potential, remote from markets Multi-GW wind power plants + storage + HV transmission

Potential “Excess” Electricity from Sugarcane in Developing Countries

Advanced Fossil Fuel Technology Syngas Technology for manufacturing H2 from abundant and secure energy sources (e.g. coal) H2 competitive as energy carrier … need technologies that –put high market value on H2 (e.g. fuel cells in transport) –reduce H2 cost (e.g. H2 separation membrane reactors) H2 must be produced centrally to minimize cost of CO2 disposal Large, widely available, secure, and environmentally acceptable storage capacity for CO2 - geological storage options promising (depleted oil/NG fields, deep beds of unminable coal, deep saline aquifers)

Power systems Optimal unit size declining, 30% of new capacity below 10MW Gas turbines, micro turbines, CHP, wind, solar, fuel cells, …. Distributed generation, virtual utilities Value of generation close to consumption higher than central station Who looks after the “system”?

Energy for Rural Development Provision of clean liquid or gaseous fuels for cooking and of electricity for lighting and other basic commodities at the household level Provision of liquid fuels and electricity for mechanization of agriculture Provision of electricity that is sufficiently low in cost that it could attract industrial activity to rural areas

Solutions to Rural Energy Needs Rural Eletrification The “centralized” approach: eletrification from grids has reached 800 million people in 20 years. Still 1,800 million without access. The “decentralized” approach: Diesel engine generator sets Small-scale hydro Photovoltaics Wind Small-scale wind Small-scale biopower using producer gas

Rough cost estimate, LPG from corn stalks: –Stand alone production: ~ $15/GJ –Once-thru co-production: ~ $6/GJ (electricity sold for 5c/kWh) (Retail LPG price in rural China: ~ $8/GJ) LPG and electricity co-produced from available corn stalks (excluding those needed for soil conditioning and other non-energy uses) could meet current rural cooking fuel demand twice over and electric demand six times over. Electricity and LPG from Corn Stalks in Jilin Province, China

Policies for Sustainable Energy Making markets work better, including mobilizing investments Focusing on the innovation chain Reforming the power sector Increasing capacity to support policy and institution building, and transfer of technology An energy future compatible with sustainable development will not happen by itself, thus policy change is required, including:

Making markets work better Setting the right framework conditions (including continued market reform and appropriate regulatory measures and policies) to encourage competitiveness in energy markets and protect public benefits Setting accurate price signals, including removal of subsidies to fossil fuel energy and some internalization of externalities ( Subsidies of $ billion/year to conventional energy.) Supporting technological leadership and capacity building in developing countries Encouraging greater international cooperation

The Innovation Chain Research and Development Demonstration projects Early deployment (cost buy-down) Widespread dissemination

Experience curves for photovoltaics, windmills, and gas turbines

Good ideas for policy implementation are gaining ground around the world Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Subsidies with “sunset” clauses Concessions Retail financing Clean Development Mechanism Policy options: cost-buy-down and dissemination

Some electricity policy issues Grid access, IPPs –Distributed generation –Biomass power –Wind energy concessions –Small scale hydro End-use efficiency Net metering Competition and system responsibility Rural electrification

Developing countries Capacity building Policy support and institution building Good governance Investment-friendly environments, socially and environmentally responsible Technological leap-frogging Consumer credits, micro-finance Education and training

WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS