Is Anthropogenic Global Warming a Serious Threat? Prof Philip Hutchinson Cranfield University

World Energy Production World energy production in exajoule, distributed by fuel source

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 © BP 2012 Primary energy world consumption Million tonnes oil equivalent

Energy Intensity of different economies The amount of energy it takes to produce a US $ of GNP for selected countries. GNP is based on 2004 purchasing power parity and 2000 dollars adjusted for inflation.

Is there a shortage of energy?

Oil reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

Natural gas reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

World Proven Oil Reserves by Region Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook Figure Regional Share of Proven Oil Reserves

World Coal Reserves

Anthropogenic? Global Warming The “Warmist” Argument Human use of fossil fuels causes CO2 emissions. (True) CO2 is a greenhouse gas and traps solar radiation. (True) As a result the Earth is warmer. (True) We have increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 40% since 1850 with most of the increase occurring since (True) Thus we should expect significant global warming from this emission. (False) The temperature rise attributable to the increase in CO2 is about 0.5 C or 1.0 F

Global CO 2 levels Annual, global emissions of carbon from fossil fuels and cement production

CO2 absorbs infrared radiation in only three narrow bands of frequencies. The percentage absorption of all three lines combined can be very generously estimated at about 8% of the whole IR spectrum, which means that 92% of the "heat" passes right through without being absorbed by CO2.

Water Vapour The Anthropogenic Contribution is about 0.2% of the total.

Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ). Temperature after C.R. Scotese CO2 after R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III)

From the Natural History Museum Climate Change has been happening for a long time

Global Temperatures between -70S and 80.5N lat Microwave sounder data from RSS

Temperature data from Satellite Dec 2009

The 28 years of High Quality Satellite Data The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly. The Past and Future of Climate, David Archibald A presentation to The Lavoisier Group’s 2007 Workshop ‘Rehabilitating Carbon Dioxide’ held in Melbourne on June 2007

Temperature Data Summary Dec 2009 Temperature Variation From Average: Lower Troposphere: Global: December 2009: °C Northern Hemisphere: °C Southern Hemisphere: °C Peak recorded anomaly: April, 1998: °C Current relative to peak recorded: °C

Anthropogenic? Global Warming IPCC plot generated by: Inappropriately weighting data. Excluding the Medieval Warm Period. Using a poor computer model to fit the data.

Anthropogenic? Global Warming

Met Office Model predicts a Mild Winter In 2008, the Met Office predicted an average summer with a low risk of heavy rainfall. It later admitted it was “one of the wettest on record across the UK”. It then predicted a milder than average winter — which turned out to be the coldest in 13 years. And in April it said there was a 65% probability of a warmer than average summer. The forecast was changed in July, with a wetter August predicted. In 2009 they predicted a mild and warmer than average winter.

Energy Security and the UK Nuclear plants are aging and will go out of service. No new nuclear plant is committed or can come on stream before 2020.

Is Anthropogenic Global Warming a Serious Threat? Only if you are foolish enough to base policies on faith in approximate computer models rather than real data.

Best advice Keep Calm and Carry On But buy a home electricity generator

Resources But Is It True Aaron Wildavsky ISBN Harvard University Press 1997 As promised I give below links which can be used to download the podcast of an open lecture that I gave at the Defence Academy of the UK. You can download the podcast from either of these two links: The first is a combination of the PowerPoint and commentary: the second is the commentary alone. You will need a flash player to play the first and this can be obtained here: I would welcome any comments especially if you think there are errors.