INDONESIA CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION STRATEGY AND ITS IMPLICATION ON ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT EASS MEETING, BEIJING, 23-24 SEPT 2010 Fabby Tumiwa, IESR.

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Presentation transcript:

INDONESIA CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION STRATEGY AND ITS IMPLICATION ON ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT EASS MEETING, BEIJING, SEPT 2010 Fabby Tumiwa, IESR

Ambitious Target  At G20 Summit in Pittsburg (2009), Indonesia President committed to a 26% - 41% emission reduction target by 2020 making Indonesia the first large developing country to do so.  Similar statement made in Copenhagen COP-15, followed by submitting official pledge to UNFCCC in February 2010 to support Copenhagen Accord.  Government agencies prepared plan, intervention scenarios to achieve the reductions target, and domestic policies to support implementation of the plan.

 Achieving 26-41% reductions from 2020 baseline would require reducing annual emissions by GtCO2e  In short term, largest emission reduction is expected to come from peat and forestry sector.

National Policy Development on CC  Indonesia Climate Change Strategy Road-map (ICCSR, 2010)  Presidential Decree on National Action Plan for GHGs Reduction (upcoming by October/November 2010??)  Presidential Decree on REDD (upcoming Oct/Nov 2010??)

Implication to Power Sector Development and Strategy  Modest target and lack of attention for GHGs emission reduction from power sector.  Emission reduction target 30 Mton CO 2 by 2020  Energy efficiency: demand side management  Increasing utilization of renewable energy Geothermal: 7000 MW (by 2020) Micro and small hydro Others: solar PVs, wind power  Fuel switching: diesel oil to bio-fuel

Energy Mix Scenario for Power Generation Source: PLN’s Power Supply Development Plan ( )

 Fossil fuel will still dominates 80-85% of power generation for the next decade.  Coal will dominates power generation (~60% of total generating capacity)  Currently only 15% of national production of coal are being used for power generation, 30% – 40% in  Dominate by pulverized coal PP, some CCTs fleet will come online after 2014/2015.

 Nuclear power has not yet consider as GHGs mitigation measures  Development are slow, controversial, and not gain full support from current administration, public opposition is still high.  NPP unlikely to be operated in Indonesia before 2025 Up to 2015 to determine and study new sites (outside Java) NPP proponent is trying to win people’s support Most optimistic scenario: NPP construction will start in 2018

Sustainable Electricity Scenario for Indonesia (IESR, 2008) Result of LEAP model (2008)

Introduction  Model developed in , will be updated and improved in 2011  Business as usual:  Electricity development plan ( )  Additional coal-fired power plant: 10 GW ( )  NPP: 4 GW in 2025 (optimistic scenario)  Energy efficiency and conservation (15% of electricity consumption) can replace demand for NPP development.

Model Structure  Demand structure:  Energy demand: electricity & non-electricity  Electricity demand is categorized by system (islands- based system)  Non-electricity demand is bundled, non-specific

Total Energy Demand ( )

Projection of Electricity Consumption ( )

 Supply structure: Power Plant Power Transmission (island based-grid/interconnection) Oil refineries LPG and LNG refineries Oil, Gas, and Coal mines Ethanol processing plants Biodiesel plants

Energy Input for Power Generation in Java-Bali system

Recent development  Diesel oil consumption is still high (22% of total electricity generated).  2 nd stage of Electricity crash program ( ): 40% coal, 60% renewables (geothermal, hydro)  Declining natural gas supply for power plant in the last 2 years, plan to build LNG liquefaction plant near Jakarta by 2012/2013.  Poor geothermal development, target to add 6.5 GW up to 2020 is hardly to meet.  Uncertainty in nuclear development.  Failure of biofuels development program  Development of new technology: e.g: Coal Bed Methane (CBM)  Impact of GHGs various mitigation measures, including CCTs.

INSTITUTE FOR ESSENTIAL SERVICES REFORM JAKARTA, INDONESIA FABBY TUMIWA