2012 Elections and Public Opinion Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli.

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2012 Elections and Public Opinion Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

Center for the Study of Local Issues: Semi-annual survey Conducted each March and October Involves 70+/- students as telephone interviewers Contents: − Benchmark questions on the economy, most important problem, right/wrong direction, and demographics − Variable questions on current policy choices and major events

Plan – focus on the election What are current trends − Most important problem facing residents − Right/wrong direction − Perceptions of the economy − Economic circumstances How are these trends related to choices for president and ballot/referenda items Where are we in the election nationally Discussion!

Most Important Problem Taxes

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘12

Right/Wrong and Partisanship: % saying “Right” LevelsOverallDem.Rep.Dem- Rep. Unaff. County State Nation Respondent

Obama Vote by Right/Wrong Direction: County, State and USA

Economic Conditions Excellent + Good: Fall ‘06 to Fall ‘12

Obama Vote by Perceptions of the Economy - County, State, USA

Cost of living indicators: S ‘08-F ‘12

Other economic indicators

Obama Vote by Economic Circumstances – F ‘12

Consumer Confidence: F ‘11 – F ‘12

Obama Vote and Consumer confidence

Obama Vote by Candidate Attributes

Obama Vote by Demographics

Presidential Job Approval

Most important issue by candidate OverallObamaRomneyUndecided Economy Trust, honesty, character 7968 Foreign affairs, national security, defense 7590 Healthcare 6944 Women’s issues (abortion, contraception, equal rights) 5934 Dislike of other candidate 5650 Other answers Total

Ballot Items: Referenda

Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

Dream Act by Demographic Variables

County Vote for President OverallDemocratsRepublicansUnaffiliated Barack Obama Mitt Romney Undecided 7588 Someone else 1202 Wouldn’t vote 0002 No answer 2216 Total

Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll

Map of Battleground States Nev. Colo. Iowa Wis Ohio Va. NH Fl. NC

Vote Estimates ObamaRomney Colorado Votamatic votamatic.org/ 5149 Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate- silver/ RCP Florida Votamatic 50 Silver RCP Iowa Votamatic Silver 5148 RCP Nevada Votamatic 5248 Silver RCP New Hampshire Votamatic Silver RCP ObamaRomney North Carolina Votamatic 4951 Silver RCP Ohio Votamatic Silver RCP Virginia Votamatic 5149 Silver RCP Wisconsin Votamatic Silver RCP Total Votamatic noneNone Silver RCP Electoral College Votamatic Silver RCP