EconFirst Associates LLC with HSUS Support WILD HORSE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: POPULATION PROJECTION & COSTING MODEL

Horse Population Management Over Populated Range Desired Range Population Gather? Remove? Short & Long Term Holding No Yes No Yes Adoption Foaling Contraception

3 Achieve target range populations Treat wild horses humanely Respect Budget Constraints Goals of Wild Horse Management

4 Range populations grow as much as 25% /Yr. Therefore frequency & size of removals grow CURRENT APPROACH NOT SUSTAINABLE High pop. growth means more young horses Therefore longer time in holding facilities

5 Federal budget constraints will limit BLM’s Management Options Therefore costs must be considered if this committee’s recommendations are to endure The BUDGET must be considered

Population Model Starting range population Ending Range Population Short & Long Term Holding Add Foals Subtract Deaths Environmental Impacts (weather, drought, etc.) Foaling Probability Contraception Effectiveness Subtract Removals Survival Probability Gather Efficiency

7 Simulates Probable Population Outcomes Year

8 Optimize Population Intervention Optimize Use of Scarce Resources Optimize Population Target Levels Optimize within Budget Constraints This System Adds Optimization to Simulation

9 Successful Management will Optimize Initial Plan and Adjust as Data is Augmented

10 Planning is a Moving Target Given Variability of Range Environments Active Interaction with Simulations

11 Successful Management will Include all HMAs

12 Successful Management will Require Better Data Collection

13 I. Dynamic Population Simulation model II. Economic Costing Model III. Management Optimization Model IV. Population & Range Database System MODEL COMPONENTS

14 Simulates single or multiple HMAs Adjusts as new data becomes available Integrates population simulation and costs Combines simulation and optimization to reach population and cost targets The Projection Model

15 Find optimum mix and timing of Gathers, Removals and Fertility Treatment A Tool to Manage Wild Horse Areas

16 Timing & Frequency of Gathers Extent of Fertility Treatment Reach or adjust AML targets Subject to Cost constraints Optimization under Uncertainity

17 Given budget, determine reachable AMLs Subject to carrying capacity constraints Subject to min-max levels Reverse Optimization

18 Simulation Example for Single HMA

19 Single HMA: Baseline Simulation if no Mgt. Base Year = 3,750 Year 12 = 10,418

20 If Planned Removals every 3 yrs Base Year 3,750 AML target = 333

21 Planned Removals every 3 yrs – relaxed AML AML target = 1,500

22 If Only 1 Removal & Treatments Every 3 Yrs

Single HMA Simulation 12 Year PV Cost* ($millions) 12 Year dollar outlay ($millions) A. Removals every 3 yrs B. Removals with relaxed AML C. 1 removal + multiple fertility treatments Savings (B over A) Savings (C over A) 6.5 (29.3% savings) 8.0 (30.2% savings) (30.2% savings) 23 Cost Comparisons *Present value at 4.3% (CBO)

24 Simulation Approximation for All HMAs

25 Age Distribution on Range

26 Young Horses Expand Rapidly All approach Log Normal distribution over time

27 Does approach work with different initial population distributions? Does it work for multiple HMAs? Does it incorporate new data as it becomes available? Tests of Robustness

28 All HMAs : 3 Year Phase-in Removals Only AML target = 24,750 Base Year = 40,044

29 All HMAs : 3 Year Phase-in With Treatment AML target = 24,750

Simulation of HMAs 12 Year PV Cost* ($millions) 12 Year dollar outlay ($millions) A. Removals every 3 yrs. (limited treatment at best) B. 1 removal + multiple fertility treatments Savings (B over A) (39% savings) (39% savings)204.0 (43% savings) 30 Cost Comparison All HMAs *Present value at 4.3% (CBO)

31 I. Dynamic Population Simulation model II. Economic Costing Model III. Management Optimization Model IV. Population & Range Database System MODEL COMPONENTS

EconFirst Associates LLC with HSUS Support WILD HORSE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: POPULATION PROJECTION & COSTING MODEL