A MULTI - COUNTRY ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCER WILLINGNESS TO ADOPT GM RICE Alvaro Durand-Morat Ravello (Italy): June , 2015

Future Challenges  Sustained growth of rice demand ~ 50 million or 11% by 2025  Limited resources to expand production Land use for rice reached a record 162 million ha  Small growth in yields over the last decade  Climate change and its impact on the availability and productivity of natural resources Negative impact on global rice production (e.g., Liu et al. 2013, Tatsumi et al. 2011)  Distorting policies that affect the efficient allocation of resources Introduction

Current Situation of GM Crops  Important adoption of GM crops, except food grain crops (e.g., rice and wheat)  The GM technology has generated sizable benefits in both developed and developing countries Economic benefits of GM technology(US$ billions) GM Crop HT soybean4.837 HT corn IR corn IR cotton Other Total Source: Brookes and Barfoot, 2014 Introduction

Introduction

Current Status of GM Rice  There are already first and second generation GM rice events (e.g., LL rice, RR rice, Bt rice, Golden rice)  No GM rice has been commercialized at a large scale  Benefits of GM rice estimated at US$ 64 billion/year (Demont and Stein, 2013) due to: Lower production costs Higher yields due to improved pest management Health benefits to farmers and farm operators Health benefits to consumers Introduction

Assess rice producers’ preferences toward GM rice across the developing world Estimate farmers WTA GM rice Analyze the variables affecting farmers’ preferences towards GM rice Objective of the study

Methodology

Methodology

Methodology Countries, regions, and number of producers surveyed CountrySurveyed region# farmers surveyed BangladeshSherpur, Mymensingh, Bogra and Dinajpur200 ColombiaEl Espinal and Saldaña, Tolima200 GhanaTamale204 HondurasGuangolola, Jesus de Otoro, and Cuyamel103 TanzaniaMbeya and Morogoro200

Stochastic payment card question for GM rice granting yield benefits vis-à-vis conventional rice Assume that GM rice has: (1) The same production cost as conventional rice, (2) Receives the same price as conventional rice Would you produce GM rice if its yield gain relative to conventional rice were: Same5% Higher10% Higher15% Higher20% Higher Definitely yes Probably yes Not sure Probably yes Definitely yes Methodology

Methodology Categories of SPC responses CaseType of Response pattern 1 Including "definitely no" at the lowest and "definitely yes" at the highest asking benefits 2 Including "definitely no" at the lowest and any other answer but (i) "definitely yes" at the highest asking benefit, and (ii) all "definitely no" 3 Including "definitely yes" at the highest and any other answer but (i) "definitely no" at the lowest asking benefit, and (ii) all "definitely yes" 4 Showing consistent behavior within the "definitely no" and "definitely yes" bounds 5All responses "definitely no" 6All responses "probably no" 7All responses "not sure" 8All responses "probably yes" 9All responses "definitely yes" 10Inconsistent answers (non-monotonic valuation functions)

Mean TL by trait and sampling method  Mean TL varies significantly across countries  Censoring significantly affects the mean TL across all countries  No significant differences across traits by country except in Ghana  higher TL for second generation GM rice Results

Mean SD by trait and sampling method  Mean SD varies significantly across countries  Censoring significantly affects the mean SD across all countries  No significant differences across traits by country except in Ghana with censored sample Results

 GM rice has the potential to contribute to stabilize rice production and improve global food security  Barriers still remain that constrain its commercialization  Producers’ preferences Vary significantly across countries Are similar across traits in all countries except Ghana  These findings are valuable for stakeholders and the definition of their strategies to advance the adoption of GM rice The selection of GM rice events subject to be released in Tanzania and Honduras, for instance, must be done more carefully to ensure larger gains vis-à-vis conventional rice than, say, Bangladesh or Colombia Conclusions

 Heterogeneous producers’ preferences across countries call for mixed approaches to the marketing and promotion of the GM rice technology to improve the chances of success in the adoption of this promising technology  Analysis of the data collected is under way to econometrically estimate the determinants of farmers’ valuation distributions The results of these econometric estimations will provide more insights regarding the preferences of farmers toward GM rice and potentially help stakeholders define their strategies regarding this technology Conclusions

Thanks Questions???