UNDERSTANDING TODAY’S CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT MARKETS Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,

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Presentation transcript:

UNDERSTANDING TODAY’S CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT MARKETS Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,

Prices are determined by supply and demand factors on a worldwide basis. Crude oil and petroleum products are global commodities

Refiner Acquisition Price of Crude Oil Dollars per Gallon Source: EIA

Dollars per Gallon Source: EIA Changes in Gasoline Prices Mirror Changes in Crude Oil Prices

Relationship between Retail Gasoline, WTI and Brendt Crude Oil Prices Source: EIA

Oil Prices Relate to Many Uncertain Factors Source: EIA

Oil Price Growth Mirrors World GDP Growth Changes in the price of oil have closely tracked changes in the world’s gross domestic product growth. Source: Dallas Fed

Relationship between OPEC’s Spare Capacity and Oil Prices Reduced OPEC excess capacity helped tighten the oil market. In mid-2008 when oil prices reached record highs, OPEC excess capacity was down to 1 million barrels per day. Source: Dallas Fed

Trends in WTI Prices Mirror Trends in Commodities Without Futures Markets Prices for Illinois Basin coal, tallow and cobalt increased as fast as oil, if not faster, in 2008 and fell just as quickly when the economy crumbled. Source: Dallas Fed

What Consumers are Paying for at the Gasoline Pump Average of gasoline components for January – November, 2011 as reported by EIA

U.S. Gasoline Requirements

2012 Dollars per Gallon Components of Annual Average Gasoline Prices Adjusted for Inflation Source: EIA

Components of Monthly Gasoline Prices Adjusted for Inflation Source: EIA 2012 Dollars per Gallon

Monthly Refiner Margins Adjusted for Inflation 2012 Dollars per Gallon Source: EIA

Components of Gasoline Prices in 2011 Dollars per Gallon Source: EIA

Refiner Margins in 2011 Cents per Gallon Source: EIA

Earnings Cents of net income per dollar of sales Source: Based on company fourth quarter 2011 financial reports.

Western States’ Gasoline Prices Source: AAA Fuel Gauge report Cents per Gallon

Components of Gasoline Prices on January 26, 2012 Source: AAA Fuel Gauge report, NYMEX WTI crude, API gasoline tax estimates

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