1 Dr. Edward Altman NYU Stern School of Business Current Conditions in Global Credit Markets Credit Risk Seminar SF/No.CA CFA/TMA San Francisco, CA October 17, 2008 A Tale of Three Periods

2 Changes in the Credit Environment: Are Historical Default and Recovery Estimates Still Relevant? Default and Recovery Forecasting Models  Macro-Economic Models: Default Probabilities  Mortality Rate Models: Default Probabilities  Market Based Models: Default Probabilities  Recovery Rate Models: Loss-Given-Default  Distressed Debt Market Size Estimate

3 Factors Affecting the Transformation of Credit Markets in Last Few Years Massive Global Liquidity –Petrodollars, Foreign Governments, Financial Institutions, Global Money Supply Expansion, etc. Explosion of Hedge Fund Activity Frenetic Activity in M&A/LBO transactions Growth of the Institutional Loan Market, esp. Leveraged Loans Easy Credit Standards by both Bank and Non-Bank Lenders Record Low Required Yield Spreads in a Higher Credit Risk Profile Environment until June ‘07 –Second-Half 2007 Spread Volatility

4 Factors Affecting the Transformation of Credit Markets in Last Few Years Rapid Growth in Derivatives and Synthetics, esp. CDOs Rescue Financings Restructurings (Privatization of Bankruptcy) Distressed Debt Control Investing (Loan-to-Own) Historically Low Default Rates and High Recoveries Extremely Low Equity and Debt Volatility until Summer ‘07 Recession in 2008/2009? –Hard Landing Default Rate –Soft Landing Default Rate

5 Major Agencies Bond Rating Categories

– 2008 (1H) (Mid-year US$ billions) Size of the US High-Yield Bond Market $1,093

7 Par ValuePar ValueDefault YearOutstanding a DefaultsRates (%) 2007 $1,075,400 $5, $993,600 $7, $1,073,000 $36, $933,100 $11, $825,000 $38, $757,000 $96, $649,000 $63, $597,200 $30, $567,400 $23, $465,500$7, $335,400$4, $271,000$3, $240,000$4, $235,000$3, $206,907$2, $163,000$5, $183,600 $18, $181,000 $18, $189,258$8, $148,187$3, $129,557$7, $90,243$3, $58,088$ $40,939$ $27,492$ * Weighted by par value of amount outstanding for each year. Source: Author’s compilation and Citigroup estimates 2008 (3Q) $1,092,624 $22, % Straight Bonds Only Excluding Defaulted Issues From Par Value Outstanding, 1971 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary) (US$ millions) Historical Default Rates Par ValuePar ValueDefault YearOutstanding a DefaultsRates (%) 1982$18,109$ $17,115$ $14,935$ $10,356$ $8,946$ $8,157$ $7,735$ $7,471$ $10,894$ $7,824$ $6,928$ $6,602$ Standard Deviation (%) Arithmetic Average Default Rate 1971 to % 3.061% 1978 to %3.272% 1985 to % 3.435% Weighted Average Default Rate* 1971 to % 1978 to % 1985 to % Median Annual Default Rate 1971 to %

8 Historical Default Rates QUARTERLY DEFAULT RATE AND FOUR QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE 1991 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary) Source: Author’s Compilations

9 Lagging Twelve-Month Leveraged Loan Default Rate by Principal Amount & Number of Issuers Default rate is calculated as the amount default over the last twelve months divided by the amount outstanding at the beginning of the twelve-month period. Source: S&P LCD 1.91% 3.32% September 30

10 Historical Default Rates and Recession Periods in the U.S. Periods of Recession: 11/73 - 3/75, 1/80 - 7/80, 7/ /82, 7/90 - 3/91, 4/01 – 12/01 *All annual rates except 2008 (9 months). Source: E. Altman (NYU Salomon Center) & National Bureau of Economic Research HIGH YIELD BOND MARKET 1972 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary)*

11 Rating Distributions Prior To Recessions (Percent of Issuers, Moody’s) Subsequent Default Rates By Rating Category /09 Results* 1991|2001 Scenarios Ba12%1%2% | 1% Ba20%2%0% | 2% Ba310%3%10% | 3% B16%4%6% | 4% B213%10%13% | 10% B328%17%28% | 17% Caa37%34%37% | 34% H.Y. Default Rate11.0%10.6%16.0% | 8.0% *Moody’s Issuer Based Default Rate Source: M. Friedson: Distressed Debt Investor (September 28, 2006, April 17, 2008) Ba54%32%29%38% B44%54%57%37% Caa2%14% 25%

12 Filings for Chapter 11 Number of Filings and Pre-petition Liabilities of Public Companies 1989 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary) Note: Minimum $100 million in liabilities Source: NYU Salomon Center Bankruptcy Filings Database

13 Credit Statistics Trends and Leveraged Market Activity

14 New Issues Rated B- or Below as Percentage of all New Issues (1993 – 2008 (1H)) Source: Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research

15 Source: Altman Mortality Tables ( ) Default Lag After Issuance: ‘B’ & ‘CCC’ Rated Corporate Bonds

16 Below Investment Grade Debt Maturity Schedule (U.S.) ($Bil.) Includes Term Loans, Revolvers, and Other Loans; Assumes Revolvers are Fully Drawn. Source: DealLogic, Fitch Ratings.

17 A Credit Default Analysis of LBOs (2004 – 2007)

18 Source: Standard and Poor’s LCD Purchase Price Multiple excluding Fees for LBO Transactions Purchase Price Multiples 13 Deals59 Deals

19 Average Total Debt Leverage Ratio for LBO’s: Europe and US with EBITDA of €/$50M or More Source: Standard & Poor’s LCD

20 Average Equity Contribution to Leveraged Buyouts 1987 – 2008 (3Q) Equity includes common equity and preferred stock as well as holding company debt and seller note proceeds downstreamed to the operating company as common equity; Rollover Equity prior to 1996 is not available; There were too few deals in 1991 to form a meaningful sample. Source: Standard & Poor’s LCD

21 European Initial/Secondary Buyouts: Volume * Deal Count counts First and Second Lien portions of a single transaction as one event; Deal Count also excludes any amendments. Reflects total sources of funding of initial or secondary buyout by a private equity firm (excludes recaps, refinancings, etc) Annual Senior Loan VolumeLBO Transaction Volume Source: Standard & Poor’s LCD Deal Count: 75 Volume: €33.43B 2008 (Jan-Sep 08) Total Funding from All Sources : €71.59B; €41.25B Funded Sr., €30.34B Other Sources

22 Vulnerable LBOs as of LTM in 2007: Class of 2004 to 2007 LBOs (As of June 2008) Source: Author’s Compilation

23 Recovery Rate Analysis

24 Default Rates and Losses a 1978 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary) Par Value Outstanding a Of Default Default Weighted PriceWeightedDefault Year ($MM)($MMs)Rate (%)After DefaultCoupon (%)Loss (%) 2008 (3Q) $1,092,624$22, $ $1,075,400$5, $ $993,600$7, $ $1,073,000$36, $ $933,100$11, $ $825,000$ 38, $ $757,000$96, $ $649,000$63, $ $597,200$30, $ $567,400$23, $ $465,500$7, $ $335,400$4, $ $271,000$3, $ $240,000$4, $ $235,000$3, $ $206,907$2, $ $163,000$5, $ $183,600$18, $ $181,000$18, $ $189,258$8, $ $148,187$3, $ $129,557$7, $ $90,243$3, $ $58,088$ $ $40,939$ $ $27,492$ $ $18,109$ $ $17,115$270.16$ $14,935$ $ $10,356$200.19$ $8,946$ $ Arithmetic Average :3.37$ Weighted Average : a Excludes defaulted issues. Source: Authors’ compilations and various dealer price quotes.

25 Source: E. Altman, et. al., “The Link Between Default and Recovery Rates”, NYU Salomon Center, S-03-4.

(5.68)14.45(20.13) (8.41) (8.73) (1.18) (2.55)(8.29) (8.46)6.88(15.34) (14.74) (2.67) (7.58) (5.46) (6.32) (9.63) (1.00)(2.96) (0.86) (1.11) Arithmetic Annual Average Compound Annual Average a End-of-year yields. Source: Citigroup’s High Yield Composite Index 2008 (3Q) (10.51) 4.51 (15.02) (7.95) (1.53) (16.19) Annual Returns Yields and Spreads on 10-Year Treasury (Treas) and High Yield (HY) Bonds 1978 – 2008 (3Q) Return (%)Promised Yield (%) a YearHYTreasSpreadHYTreasSpread

27 YTM Spread Between High Yield Markets & 10 Year Treasury Notes June 01, 2007 – September 30, 2008 Source: Citigroup Yieldbook Index Data 6/12/07 (260 bps) 9/30/08 (1,038 bps) 6/30/08 (715 bps)

28 Size of Distressed Debt Market

29 (a) Defined as yield-to-maturity spread greater than or equal to 1000bp over comparable Treasuries. (b) $1.227 trillion as of 9/30/2008 Note: Some years not available as no survey results available Source: NYU Salomon Center Distressed a And Defaulted Debt as a Percentage of High Yield And Defaulted Debt Markets b (Not Including LEH Bond Defaults) 1990 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary)

30 (a) Defined as yield-to-maturity spread greater than or equal to 1000bp over comparable Treasuries. (b) $1.382 trillion as of 9/30/2008 (c) $155 billion Note: Some years not available as no survey results available Source: NYU Salomon Center Distressed a And Defaulted Debt as a Percentage of High Yield And Defaulted Debt Markets b (Including LEH Bond Defaults c ) ( 1990 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary)

31 Estimated Face And Market Values Of Defaulted And Distressed Debt ($ Billions) (Not Including LEH Bond Defaults) (3Q - Preliminary)

32 Estimated Face And Market Values Of Defaulted And Distressed Debt ($ Billions) (Including LEH Bond Defaults) (3Q - Preliminary)

33 Size Of The US Defaulted And Distressed Debt Market ($ Billions) (Not Including LEH Bond Defaults) 1990 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary) Source: Author’s Compilations

34 Size Of The US Defaulted And Distressed Debt Market ($ Billions) (Including LEH Bond Defaults) 1990 – 2008 (3Q - Preliminary) Source: Author’s Compilations

35 Returns and Correlations of the Defaulted Debt Markets

36 Defaulted Debt Indexes: Market-to-Face Value Ratios (1987 – 2008 (9/30) Source: Altman-NYU Salomon Center Defaulted Debt Indexes Loans Median Market-to-Face value is 0.67 and Average Market-to-Face value is 0.68 Bonds Median Market-to-Face value is 0.46 and Average Market-to-Face value is 0.42

37

38 Regression (Correlation) Analysis of Defaulted Bond Returns vs. Default Rates Defaulted Bonds (t+1) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 58.0% R 2 test = 33.6% t-test = 3.01 (.05 level) Defaulted Bonds (t+2) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 44.0% R 2 = 19.4% t-test = 2.04 (.05 level) Defaulted Bonds (t) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 0.0% R 2 = 0.0% t-test = 0.02 (not significant)

39

40 Regression (Correlation) Analysis of Defaulted Loan Returns vs. Default Rates Defaulted Loans (t+1) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 66.0% R 2 test = 43.6% t-test = 2.48 (.05 level) Defaulted Loans (t+2) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 69.8% R 2 = 48.6% t-test = 2.57 (.05 level) Defaulted Loans (t) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 18.5% R 2 = 3.3% t-test = 0.02 (not significant)

41

42 Regression (Correlation) Analysis of Combined Index Returns vs. Default Rates Combined Index (t+1) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 59.8% R 2 test = 35.8% t-test = 2.36 (.05 level) Combined Index (t+2) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 57.5% R 2 = 33.0% t-test = 2.10 (.05 level) Combined Index (t) = (Default Rate (t)) Correlation (y/x) = 0.0% R 2 = 0.0% t-test = 0.02 (not significant)

43 CORRELATION OF ALTMAN NYU-SALOMON CENTER INDEXES OF DEFAULTED BONDS WITH OTHER SECURITIES INDEXES 1987 – 2008 (June 30 th ) Correlation of Altman Bond Index Monthly Returns

44 CORRELATION OF ALTMAN NYU-SALOMON CENTER INDEXES OF DEFAULTED LOANS WITH OTHER SECURITIES INDEXES 1996 – 2008 (June 30 th ) Correlation of Altman Indices Monthly Returns

45 U.S. Distressed Debt Managers (September 2008)

46 U.S. Distressed Debt Managers (September 2008)

47 U.S. Distressed Debt Managers (September 2008)

48 U.S. Distressed Funds with European Offices European Distressed Debt Managers (Home Grown)

49 Distressed Active/Control Investors

50 Investment Styles and Target Returns in Distressed Debt Investing

51 Forecasting Default and Recovery Rates

52 Forecasting Defaults and the Default Rate MODEL DRIVERS Mortality Rate Estimates: = f {bond rating, age, redemptions, defaults} Historical New Issuance over last 10 years by credit quality Bond-ratings Z-score Bond-equivalent ratings New Defaults and Default Rate in 2007 Estimate high yield market growth in 2008 New Defaults and Default Rate in 2008, 2009

53 Marginal and Cumulative Mortality Rate Equation One can measure the cumulative mortality rate (CMR) over a specific time period (1,2,…, T years) by subtracting the product of the surviving populations of each of the previous years from one (1.0), that is, MMR (t) = Total value of defaulting debt in year (t) total value of the population at the start of the year (t) MMR = Marginal Mortality Rate CMR (t) = 1 -  SR (t), t = 1 hereCMR (t) = Cumulative Mortality Rate in (t), SR (t) = Survival Rate in (t), 1 - MMR (t)

54 Mortality Rate Concept (Illustrative Calculation) For BB Rated Issues SecurityIssuedYear 1Year 2 No.AmountDefaultCallSFDefaultCallSF NENENE NENENE Total1, Amount Start of 1, , Period ---=---= Year 1Year 2 Marginal Mortality50/1,500 = 3.3%100/1,325 = 7.5% Rate 1 - (SR1 x SR2 ) = CMR2 Cumulative Rate3.3%1 - (96.7% x 92.5%) = 10.55% NE = No longer in existence SF = Sinking fund

55 All Rated Corporate Bonds* Mortality Rates by Original Rating *Rated by S&P at Issuance Based on 1,990 issues Source: Standard & Poor's (New York) and Author's Compilation

56 All Rated Corporate Bonds* Mortality Losses by Original Rating *Rated by S&P at Issuance Based on 1,805 issues Source: Standard & Poor's (New York) and Author's Compilation

57 Forecasts of Default and Recovery Rates in the High-Yield Bond Market YearDefault Rate Default Amount ($ billion) Recovery Rate* 2007 (Forecast)2.50%$ % 2007 (Actual)0.51%$ % 2008 (Forecast)4.64%$ % 2009 (Forecast)5.05%$ % Source: Mortality Rates (Slide 53), All Corporate Bond Issuance and Authors’ Estimates of Market Size in 2008 and *Based on the log-linear default rate/recovery rate regression (Slide 29).

58 Predicting Default Rates Market Based Measures

59 Default Rate[t+1] Versus Yield Spread[t] Regression equation: Default Rate = * Spread Predictor Coef SE Coef T test P value Constant Spread R-Sq = 69.4% R-Sq(adj) = 68.3% Forecast Results Applying Yield spread (06/12/2007) of 260 bps, P D = *2.60 = 0.364% Applying Yield spread (12/31/2007) of 566 bps, P D = *5.66 = 4.617% Applying Yield spread (09/30/2008) of 1,038 bps, P D = *10.38 = % Compare with Prediction based on Mortality Rate Approach (4.64%) Dollar Denominated (Altman) Default Rate Forecasts Sources: Authors’ calculations: Data from E. Altman, NYU Salomon Center and Citi Yield Book

60 Default Rate[t+1] Versus Distress Ratio*[t] Regression equation: Default Rate = * Distress Ratio Predictor Coef SE Coef T test P value Constant Distress Ratio R-Sq = 65.1% R-Sq(adj) = 62.8% Forecast Results Applying Distress Ratio (06/30/2007) of 1.20%, P D = * 1.20 = 1.031% Applying Distress Ratio (12/31/2007) of 10.42%, P D = *10.42 = 2.820% Applying Distress Ratio (09/30/2008) of 40.20%, P D = *40.20 = 8.569% Compare with Prediction based on Mortality Rate Approach (4.64%) Dollar Denominated (Altman) Default Rate Forecasts *Proportion of High-Yield Bonds yielding at least 1,000bp over 10-year Treasury Bonds Sources: Authors’ calculations: Data from E. Altman, NYU Salomon Center with Distress Ratio data from Merrill Lynch & Co.

61 Default Rate[t+1] Versus Yield Spread[t] and Distress Ratio*[t] Regression equation: Default Rate = * Spread * Distress Ratio Predictor Coef SE Coef T test P value Constant Spread Distress Ratio R-Sq = 70.0% R-Sq(adj) = 65.7% Correlation Between Yield Spread and Distress Ratio: R-Sq = 93.8% Correlation = 96.0% Forecast Results Applying Yield Spread and Distress Ratio (06/12/2007) of 260 bps and 1.20%, P D = *2.60 – 0.012* 1.20 = 0.440% Applying Yield Spread and Distress Ratio (12/31/2007) of 566 bps and 10.42%, P D = *5.66 – 0.012*10.42 = 4.582% Applying Yield Spread and Distress Ratio (09/30/2008) of 1,038 bps and 40.20%, P D = *10.38 – 0.012*40.20 = % Compare with Prediction based on Mortality Rate Approach (4.64%) Dollar Denominated (Altman) Default Rate Forecasts *Proportion of High-Yield Bonds yielding at least 1,000bp over 10-year Treasury Bonds Sources: Authors’ calculations: Data from E. Altman, NYU Salomon Center, Citi Yield Book and Distress Ratio data from Merrill Lynch & Co.

62 Issuer Default Rate[t+1] Versus Yield Spread[t] Regression equation: Issuer Default Rate (t+1) = Yield Spread (t) Predictor Coef SE Coef T test P value Constant Yield Spread (t) R-Sq = 75.3% R-Sq(adj) = 73.8% Forecast Results Applying Yield spread (06/12/2007) of 260 bps, P D = *2.60 = 1.914% Applying Yield spread (12/31/2007) of 566 bps, P D = *5.66 = 5.554% Applying Yield spread (09/30/2008) of 1,038 bps, P D = *10.38 = % Compare with Prediction based on Mortality Rate Approach (4.64%) Issuer Denominated (Moody's) Default Rate Forecasts Sources: Authors’ calculations: Data from Moody’s Investor Services and Citi Yield Book

63 Issuer Default Rate[t+1] Versus Distress Ratio*[t] Regression equation: Issuer Default Rate (t+1) = Distress Ratio (t) Predictor Coef SE Coef T test P value Constant Distress Ratio (t) R-Sq = 80.0% R-Sq(adj) = 78.7% Forecast Results Applying Distress Ratio (06/30/2007) of 1.20%, P D = * 1.20 = 2.193% Applying Distress Ratio (12/31/2007) of 10.42%, P D = *10.42 = 3.751% Applying Distress Ratio (09/30/2008) of 40.20%, P D = *40.20 = 8.783% Compare with Prediction based on Mortality Rate Approach (4.64%) Issuer Denominated (Moody's) Default Rate Forecasts Sources: Authors’ calculations: Data from Moody’s Investor Services and Distress Ratio data from Merrill Lynch & Co. *Proportion of High-Yield Bonds yielding at least 1,000bp over 10-year Treasury Bonds

64 Issuer Default Rate[t+1] Versus Yield Spread[t] and Distress Ratio*[t] Regression equation: Issuer Default Rate (t+1) = Yield Spread (t) Distress Ratio (t) Predictor Coef SE Coef T test P value Constant Yield Spread (t) Distress Ratio (t) R-Sq = 81.8% R-Sq(adj) = 79.2% Forecast Results Applying Yield Spread and Distress Ratio (06/12/2007) of 260 bps and 1.20%, P D = * * 1.20 = 1.912% Applying Yield Spread and Distress Ratio (12/31/2007) of 566 bps and 10.42%, P D = * *10.42 = 4.593% Applying Yield Spread and Distress Ratio (09/30/2008) of 1,038 bps and 40.20%, P D = * *40.20 = 9.847% Compare with Prediction based on Mortality Rate Approach (4.64%) Issuer Denominated (Moody's) Default Rate Forecasts *Proportion of High-Yield Bonds yielding at least 1,000bp over 10-year Treasury Bonds Sources: Authors’ calculations: Data from Moody’s Investor Services, Citi Yield Book and Distress Ratio data from Merrill Lynch & Co.