Chapter 7 Public Opinion

WHO GOVERNS? TO WHAT ENDS? How does public opinion in America today vary by race, gender, and other differences? What is political ideology, and how does it affect political behavior and influence public policy? TO WHAT ENDS? What role did the Framers of the Constitution think public opinion should play in American democracy? When, if ever, should public policies mirror majority opinion? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Warm-up Why do you think government there is many gaps between what the government does and what the people want? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVpKgMCtukk Public opinion polls Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Public Opinion and Democracy The Framers of the Constitution created a government to achieve certain goals: “to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessing of Liberty.” – Preamble to the Constitution Copyright © 2011 Cengage

What is Public Opinion? How Polling Works Poll Random sample Sampling error Exit polls Jonathan Nourok/PhotoEdit American politics is intensely local, as when Rep. Loretta Sanchez shakes hands with a voter in her California district. p. 156 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

How polling works Poll=survey of public opinion can capture the views of 300 million by interviewing as few as 1,500 people! Keys to a good poll: positive, comprehensible questions, wording questions fairly Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Random Sample Means that any given voter or adult has an equal chance of being interviewed Ex: make a list of all geographic units in a country (ex. Counties), group them by size of poulation, then select random units from each population, (down to neighborhoods) Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Sampling error Difference between the results of 2 surveys Ex. One random sample shows 70% of people approve the president, the 2nd shows 65%, it has a sampling error of 5% Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Exit polls Since 1952, every major poll has successfully picked the winner of the presidential election Interviews with randomly selected voters conducted at polling places to get a representative sample of voting in districts (but it is hard with close elections) Copyright © 2011 Cengage

How does polling work? Usually takes 500,000 population, pollsters need to make 15,000 calls to reach 1,065 people to do the survey (get a +-3% margin of error) Read page 158: How the 2008 Presidential Primary Polling Went Wrong Copyright © 2011 Cengage

What is Public Opinion? How Opinions Differ Opinion saliency Opinion stability Opinion-policy congruence Jim Cole/AP Photo Clinton winning over Obama and Edwards in New Hampshire when the polls said otherwise, p. 158 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QM Identify and discuss some of the examples that are brought to light in this clip on public opinion Copyright © 2011 Cengage

How opinions differ Opinion saliency=some care about certain issues more than others Opinion stability=some issues opinions are pretty steady; others pretty volatile Opinion policy congruence=some issues government seems in sync with public; others it does not Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Warm-up T Q1 Which of the following statements best describes the gender gap? A. women are more likely than men to vote for a female candidate B. women are more likely than men to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate C. men are more likely than women to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate D. women change their ideologies more than men do when they marry E. unmarried men are more likely to vote for a female candidate than married men Copyright © 2011 Cengage

A1 B. Voting-age women support the Democratic Party in higher percentages than men Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Q-2 All of the following are characteristics of an accurate random sample EXCEPT A. the questions must be asked in clear, unemotional language B. people must have some knowledge of the things they are asked about C. the sample must include at least 10% of the population D. each person must have an equal chance of being interviewed E. even the most accurate polls have some sampling error. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

A2 C accurate polling requires a random sample with clear questions about understandable topics. Although larger samples are more accurate, they are expensive. For any population over 500,000 at least 1,065 respondents are necessary to provide 95% confidence, plus or minus 3 % Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Q3 What is the effect of a college education on political attitudes? A. people with college degrees tend to be more conservative, because they have higher than average incomes B. people who have attended college tend to vote more as independents because they think more ideologically C. people with college degrees are not as liberal as their parents D. people with college degrees describe themselves as liberal. E. there is no correlation between a college education and political attitudes. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

AQ3 D. Although people who attend college are not as liberal as they used to be, they are still more likely to describe themselves as liberal. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Political Socialization Political socialization – process by which background traits influence one’s political views Genes and the Family Religion The Gender Gap Bob Daemmirch/The Image Works Children grow up learning, but not always following, their parents’ political beliefs. p. 159 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Mistake of the 2000 election http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xIDdsYVjtk&list=PL1184A8987EC3D521 Cnn pulls back gore winning florida http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrkhywYX15k Gore wins florida Predict=what problems is this going to cause president/country/citizens?voters? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Reading on how Genes affect political affiliation Read article, discuss Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Genes and Family 1/3 of differences among political beliefs come from genetics (twins) 1/10 come from family influence Do you know the make up of your family politics? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Source: Institute of Politics, The 15th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 2008. Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Survey: More Americans Question Religion’s Role in Politics, August 21, 2008, sections 3 and 4. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Religion Issues like gay marriage, abortion but matter less on economy, war http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBAiwGzGuvI Look at chart next slide Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among Young Voters Widens, April 28, 2008. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Gender Gap Difference between men and women political views Since 1980, women have voted in a higher rate then men/also more women then men in voting population Democrats have the advantage of the women Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Political socialization http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSBPHSAEdYM Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Figure 7.1 Gender Gaps on Issue Importance (2006) Replace with jpeg, p. 162 Source: Ms. magazine/WDN Poll, Lake Research Partners, surveying 1,000 randomly selected likely voters November 6–7, 2006. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Cleavages in Public Opinion Social Class=working-class (blue collar), upper-class (white collar) Race and Ethnicity Region Lester Cohen/WireImage.com/Getty Images Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa speaks to supporters. p. 164 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Race and ethnicity AA=Dem. (some younger AA voting republican for school vouchers) Minorities=Dem Asian Am/Anglo whites=Rep. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Obama won women by 12 % and Romney won men by 8% Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Region South less liberal/East/West Coast Liberal Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Political Ideology Political ideology - A more or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue. Mass Ideologies: A Typology Liberal and Conservative Elites Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Take the typology quiz Go to this website: http://typology.people-press.org/typology Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Source: Adapted from “Profiles of the Typology Groups: Beyond Red and Blue,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2005. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policy Political elites – persons with a disproportionate share of political power. Elites raise and frame political issues. Elites state the norms by which issues should be settled. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policy HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO ELITES HAVE ON THE FOLLOWING? Racism Sexism Economic problems Crime Drugs Foreign affairs Copyright © 2011 Cengage

WHAT WOULD YOU DO? M E M O R A N D U M To: Cecilia Kennedy, U.S. Representative From: Ronald Edwards, legislative assistant Subject: Vote on comprehensive immigration reform The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) sought to stem illegal immigration by imposing penalties on employers who hire them, while permitting the estimated 3 million illegal immigrants at the time to attain legal status. Since then, however, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States has quadrupled, while law enforcement efforts to punish employers or deport those immigrants have been minimal. Your district is not directly affected by immigration, but voters have concerns both about maintaining law and order, and providing economic opportunities for people who have resided in this country for many years. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments for: 1. Your district contains a large proportion of first-generation Americans, who favor a “path to citizenship” for immigrants who have lived in this country for years, regardless of their legal status. 2. Illegal immigrants often take menial jobs that nobody else wants, and contribute to the U.S. economy by paying taxes and buying goods and services. 3. A “path to citizenship,” with fines and other penalties for being in the country illegally, is the most realistic option for individuals who have family and other long-term ties in the United States. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments against: 1. Your party leaders oppose comprehensive immigration reform, saying that enhanced border security must be a higher priority. 2. Illegal immigrants take jobs away from native-born Americans and cost more in public services, such as education and emergency health care, than they contribute to the economy. 3. People who entered the country illegally must not be rewarded for breaking the law, and enforcement can be effective with sufficient resources. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Your decision: Vote for bill? Vote against bill? Copyright © 2011 Cengage