Introduction to Credit Derivatives Uwe Fabich
Credit Derivatives 2 Outline Market Overview Mechanics of Credit Default Swap Standard Credit Models
Credit Derivatives 3 Credit Derivatives Market Overview Total Market Size > $5,000 billion Growth rate of more than 30% over the last years New Basel Capital Accord
Credit Derivatives 4 Credit Derivatives Market Overview Product overview
Credit Derivatives 5 Credit Default Swap (CDS) Most Basic Credit Derivatives Product A CDS is used to transfer credit risk Starting Point for pricing of Exotic Credit Derivatives Investor can buy protection vs default of a reference entity- this is economically equivalent to shorting a credit
Credit Derivatives 6 Mechanics of a CDS Premium leg: Protection buyer pays a spread at each date Protection leg: Protection seller pays Face Value in exchange for bond if default occurs
Credit Derivatives 7 Credit Models Structural Model - based on Merton (1974) Reduced Form Model - based on Jarrow/Turnbull (1995)
Credit Derivatives 8 Merton Model Lognormal stochastic process represents the firm‘s total Asset Value value Default only occurs at maturity Standard Black Scholes assumption Shareholders are long a European Call on the firm‘s asset, Strike= Face Value of Debt From Put-Call Parity: Debt= Risk Free Bond – European Put
Credit Derivatives 9 Merton Model asset value and volatility are not observable However, equity value and volatilty are. Black Scholes gives us: where With these results we can price risky debt: where
Credit Derivatives 10 Once we have the value of the risky bond it is easy to calculate the credit spread:...and build a spread curve Example: (K=100; AV=140,115,98) Merton Model
Credit Derivatives 11 Problems with the Merton Model Black Scholes assumptions do not hold Only one zero coupon bond outstanding Diffusion Model is continous Pricing of Credit Derivatives with more exotic payoffs is beyond the limit of the model
Credit Derivatives 12 Reduced Form Model Purpose: Arbitrage free valuation of default linked payoffs Default is treated as exogenous event Default event is the first event of a Poisson counting process. Conditional probability of default is defined as hazard rate:...integration leads to the survival probality:
Credit Derivatives 13 Pricing of contingent claims if payment is made at time T: where if payment is made when default occurs: Probability of defaulting in time interval from t to t+dt is...and by integrating over the density of default time Reduced Form Model
Credit Derivatives 14 Reduced Form Model Pricing CDS Spreads Present Value Protection leg Present Value Premium leg
Credit Derivatives 15 Reduced Form Model Pricing CDS Spreads Protection Leg=Premium Leg
Credit Derivatives 16 Recovery Rates
Credit Derivatives 17 Conclusion There is a lot to learn for me But the rewards are high