6. Stating the State of E-Learning: Today and Into the Future Curt Bonk, Ph.D., Indiana University and CourseShare.com

What is happening in higher education? or

Sample of Other Recent Surveys 1.A Survey of Traditional and Distance Learning Higher Education Members, 2000, The National Education Association. 2.Quality on the Line: Benchmarks for Success in Internet-Based Distance Education, 2000, Report from Institute for Higher Education Policy; sponsored by NEA and Blackboard. 3.Surveying the Digital Future, 2000, 2001, UCLA. 4.Distance Education at Postsecondary Institutions: , published in 1999, National Center for Educational Statistics.

A Vision of E-learning for America’s Workforce Report of the Commission on Technology and Adult Learning, (2001, June) A remarkable 84 percent of two-and four- year colleges in the United States expect to offer distance learning courses in 2002” (only 58% did in 1998) (US Dept of Education report, 2000) The percentage of post-secondary students enrolled in distance ed is expected to triple from just 5 percent in 1998 to 15 percent in 2002.

Survey Finds Concern on Administrative Computing Chronicle of Higher Ed, June 22, 2001, A33, Jeffrey R. Young “Campus-technology leaders say they worry more about administrative-computing systems than about anything else related to their jobs.” (survey by Educause—an academic- technology consortium)

Survey #1: 222 College Faculty (Early Adopters of the Web)

Survey Limitations Sample pool Web savvy The Web is changing rapidly Lengthy survey Some were administrators Does not address all issues

Higher Education Fantasies Faculty just need a bit more training. Young faculty will jump on this. Pedagogical tools exist to TEACH online. Faculty will flock to sophisticated tech. Faculty are loyal. Web instruction is an either/or decision.

How Old Are Early Web Adopters?

Why post to MERLOT.org or the WLH?

Internet Access 78 percent had Internet access in their current or most recent classroom. 93 percent had computer lab accessibility. 97 percent had home access. –Note: This is more than double the 47 percent of Americans who are users of the Internet at home as reported in a recent UCLA study (The UCLA Internet Report, 2000).

Study Says Net Users are Stressed, but Not Depressed, Los Angeles Times. New study: More time online… Extroverts = better mood, less lonelier, & higher self-esteem. Introverts = the lonlier, more unhappy, used Net more for entertainment not social contact. “The previously reported negative outcomes associated with the Internet had all but disappeared…except for the association with increased stress” Are you a Web Hog??? (do you hog the modem pool?)

Any Online Teaching Experiences?

Who Owns Online Courses?

Is Teaching Online Time- Consuming?

Courseware Systems 83 percent were provided a Web-based platform or courseware system 22 percent more than one. 27 of those making a decision had more than one. 10 percent had access to three courseware systems or conferencing tools.

Courseware Features Like with Current Tool Comprehensive, consistent, customizable Ease of use, flexible, reliable Data and course security Detailed statistics on bulletin board use Good online help Internal systems, drop boxes, chats Posting of tasks & due dates on Web Randomized test banks

What Percent of Time Teach Online?

Interested in Freelance Instruction?

Any Obstacles to Teaching Online?

Problems Faced Administrative: “Lack of admin vision.” “Lack of incentive from admin and the fact that they do not understand the time needed.” “Lack of system support.” “Little recognition that this is valuable.” “Rapacious U intellectual property policy.” “Unclear univ. policies concerning int property.” Pedagogical: “Difficulty in performing lab experiments online.” “Lack of appropriate models for pedagogy.” Time-related: “More ideas than time to implement.” “Not enough time to correct online assign.” “People need sleep; Web spins forever.”

Does technical support vary by size??

Online Technology Pushes Pedagogy to the Forefront Frank Newman & Jamie Scurry, Chronicle of Higher Education, July 13, 2001, B7. “Many faculty members are still concerned whether the technology is simple and reliable enough to use for more-sophisticated learning tasks. Increasingly, however, better software is emerging that engages students in more effective learning.”

What Instructional Activities are Needed?

General Recommendations 1.Develop Instructor Training Programs 2.Foster Instructor Recognition and Support 3.Create Instructor & Resource Sharing Tools 4.Develop Online Learning Policies 5.Conduct Online Learning Research 6.Form Online Learning Dev Partnerships 7.Create/Test Online Learning Pedagogy

Survey #2: 201 Trainers, Instructors, Managers, Instructional Designers, CEOs, CLOs, etc.

More Survey Limitations Low Response Rate Web Interested Sample Broad Backgrounds Lengthy Survey Tech Limitations

So what happens to the University??? Note: any predictions are bound to be too conservative!!!

Universities Replaced? No... Most distance lrng is mixed--Web & Live Brick and mortar needs to be used Online learning only approximates live lrng Expanding birth rate = need for more educ. Web learning is for select reasons Most colleges will find their niche Socialization argument –(the year old need to party hardy)

Universities Replaced--Yes! Web has more potential for active lrng. Tchg/lrng expectations are changing fast! Expanding birth rate –Payoffs from experiments in 3rd world countries. Web courses can be repurposed/reused. Web learning will increase in stability Real chance to overthrow the system!!! Who needs more football and drinking?

Forces Acting Against Replacement Yes, radical change, but room for both High actual costs of online learning Difficult to be animated on the Web Hard to measure benefits Tenure & hard to change practices, procedures, expectations Institutional Politics Eye damage reports due to overexposure

How are costs calculated in online programs???

Forces In Favor of Replacement States not funding as highly as before Wireless technology; add’l emerging tech Global economy and marketplace Commercialization of best lrng products Innovative faculty; stalling universities Demand for learning/just in time info Lots of wasted space in university offices

Faculty Member in 2020 Track 1: Technical Specialist Track 2: Personal Guide Track 3: Online Facilitator Track 4: Course Developer Track 5: Course or Program Manager Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer Track 7: High School Teacher Track 8: Unemployed

Student Differences in 2020 Live Longer More Educated –Multiple Degrees –Accustomed to Multiple Learning Formats –Design own programs and courses Specialists AND Generalists Courses/Degrees for unknown occupations Expect to Take Courses Where Live Cyber-students (various digital aids attached to appendages)

Typical Technology in 2020 Global Chat, Interplanetary Chat –Guest Lectures from Mars, Space Shuttle, Moon Global Instructors (with online skill ratings) Intelligent Tutors, Butlers, and Agents E-Course Generators and Object Sharing Lifetime Cyberlearning Stats & Educ Genealogies Language Translation Tools Online Essay Plagiarism Check & Scoring

Possible Roles of University in 2020 Meeting place (degrees conferred, picnics, etc.) Certificate grantor Online tech support desk Matchmaking: pair students with instructors & other students for counseling/mentoring Research online learning communities Outward bound-like experiences (tours and experiences of what universities used to be like)

Possible Scenarios by Year 2020 Virtual U’s and Traditional U’s Coexist Traditional Univ’s buy stake in Virtual U’s Traditional Univ’s form Consortia Some Trad U’s Move Ahead, Some Don’t Other Technology arise well beyond Web Large Virtual U’s Buy Competing Traditional U’s and shut them down

What Uses for Old Institutions of Higher Learning??? Museums Historical Monuments Bomb Shelters Resorts and Apartment Complexes Nostalgic Retirement Homes Green Space Prisons

Final Advice Use blended or flexible approaches. Distribute success stories. Read published reports. Negotiate partnerships. Find ways to share resources. Help build better e-learning tools. Try things out & let me know what works.

So, any questions about the state of things?