2013 Industry Panel: Job Growth... fact or fiction? Thanks to sponsor Alex Hayden ’95 CEO, Cushman and Wakefield and Chair of Career and Industry Partnerships, Chapman50

A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH ARGYROS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Presented by Esmael Adibi, Ph.D.

NBER Recession & Recovery Indicators   Real GDP   Personal Income Less Transfer Payments   Industrial Production   Real Sales Value of Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail Sector   Employment

Recessions’ Impact % Change / Real GDP % Change / Employment % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%-7%0%

Recessions’ Impact % Change / Real GDP % Change / Employment % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%-7%0%

Real GDP Growth Employment Inflation Long-term Interest Rates Corporate Profits Government Purchases Consumption Investment Net Exports Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy

Real GDP & Payroll Employment Recession and Recovery Index LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT Quarters Real GDP Payroll Employment +3.2% -2.1% -4.7% -6.2% ’07 Q4 ’11 Q4 ’08 Q1

Real GDP Yr/Yr % Change Annual % Change

Payroll Employment In Thousands U.S.

Payroll Job Growth Annual % Change OC U.S.

Change in Payroll Employment Dec to Dec Orange County Sectors Construction Financial Activities Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Information Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Government Other Services Total Nonfarm 4,300 5,700 7,900 6,900 8, , , ,400 Change % Change

Payroll Employment Orange County In Thousands -162,000 jobs +64,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

Educational & Health Services Orange County In Thousands of Jobs +9,000 jobs +13,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

Manufacturing Orange County In Thousands of Jobs -28,000 jobs +8,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

Construction Orange County In Thousands of Jobs -31,000 jobs +5,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook Projected Impact Real GDP Real Exports Construction Spending -3.1% -9.1% -26.6% +2.4% +1.8% +2.2% +11.1% +6.7% +3.4% -33.7%-4.9% +10.7% +2.0%+2.7%

The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook Projected Impact Real GDP Real Exports Construction Spending -3.1% -9.1% -26.6% +2.4% +1.8% +2.2% +11.1% +6.7% +3.4% -33.7%-4.9% +10.7% +2.0% +1.2% +2.7% +2.3%

The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook Projected Impact Real GDP Real Exports Construction Spending -3.1% -9.1% -26.6% +2.4% +1.8% +2.2% +11.1% +6.7% +3.4% -33.7%-4.9% +10.7% +2.0% +1.2% +15.4% +2.7% +2.3% +17.6%

Job Growth Annual % Change +32K JOBS ORANGE COUNTY +37K JOBS +32K JOBS +15K JOBS

Job Growth by Sector & Average Pay Per Worker Above Average Construction Professional & Business Services Education & Health Care Services Leisure & Hospitality Financial Services Below Average Retail Trade Manufacturing Information State & Local Government Federal Government ($61K) ($66K) ($54K) ($21K) ($98K) ($51K) ($67K) ($78K) ($53K) ($73K) Orange County Job Growth by Sector

F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y Health Care Sector Christopher de Rosa, President of Cigna- Western Region

F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y 22 Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna

F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y 23 Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna

F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y 24 Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna

F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y "Cigna" is a registered service mark and the "Tree of Life" logo and “GO YOU” are service marks of Cigna Intellectual Property, Inc., licensed for use by Cigna Corporation and its operating subsidiaries. All products and services are provided by such operating subsidiaries and not by Cigna Corporation. Such operating subsidiaries include Connecticut General Life Insurance Company, Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company, and HMO or service company subsidiaries of Cigna Health Corporation and Cigna Dental Health, Inc. All models are used for illustrative purposes only /12 © 2012 Cigna. Some content provided under license.

Chapman 50 Industry Job Growth Panel Matthew Jenusaitis President, OCTANe July 23, 2013

Where people and ideas come together with capital and resources to fuel Orange County’s high technology ecosystem

Future Job Requirements Science and Technology: 131,300 Jobs :131,300 Today:111,900 Requirement:19,400 New Jobs Requirement Science and Technology: 111,900 Jobs 2012

IT Sector Job Growth Employment 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 $0 $1 $2 $3 Payroll ($Billions) Hardware Software 2002: 1,171 Companies 2011: 1,643 Companies 2002: 296 Companies 2011: 223 Companies

Life Science Sector Job Growth Employment 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 14,000 $0 $0.5 $1 $1.5 Payroll ($Billions) Pharma/Biotech Devices 2002: 124 Companies 2011: 134 Companies 2002: 84 Companies 2002: 97 Companies

Where the Money Is ($MM) Orange County Investments in Q Source: PWC Moneytree

LaunchPad Economic Impact Companies Funded Capital Raised Since 2004 Companies Funding Jobs Created Direct Indirect Multiplier Total Jobs County Taxes Generated State Taxes Generated 11 $7.3MM $1.5MM $130, $15.9MM $2.5MM $372,000 $218MM $77MM $325MM ,033 $5.3MM $783, * 9 $19MM $382MM 171

Jobs Created by LaunchPad Companies Direct and Indirect Job Creation Note 1: Includes Bureau of Labor Statistics multiplier effect Goal: 10,000 Jobs by 2020

Thank You

Housing Sector 35 Richard Douglass, Division President, Ryland Homes- Southern California

Observations as of July 2013 Significant price appreciation in past months. Premium locations gain premium pricing. There is Irvine and then there is the rest of the world. Media reports over-generalize- there are still areas of slow housing recovery. Quality labor in VERY short supply. Regulation will still inhibit growth. Next phases of land development will be more capital intensive 36

37 Orange County Permits

38 San Diego Permits

39 Riverside-SB Permits

40 Los Angeles Permits

Construction Employment Number of construction jobs pre-recession and post-recession: Statewide 2006 – 933,700 peak 2010 – 559,800 bottom 2013 – 603,400 current Orange County 2006 – 106,600 peak 2010 – 68,000 bottom 2013 – 72,100 current Southern California 2006 – 412,100 peak 2011 – 227,600 bottom 2012 – 207,200 *No recent data from all SoCal counties (LA, Orange, Ventura). We can only speculate that Riverside and San Bernardino have been consistent in employment. We can infer high numbers from LA, Orange, and Ventura indicate this is a positive trend. 41

2013 Industry Panel: Job Growth... fact or fiction? Thanks to sponsor Alex Hayden ’95 CEO, Cushman and Wakefield and Chair of Career and Industry Partnerships, Chapman50