2 nd International Conference on Nuclear & Renewable Energy Resources 4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey Nuclear Fusion Energy- Mankind ’ s Giant Step Forward Sing Lee 1,2,3* & Sor Heoh Saw 1,2 1 Institute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia 2 INTI University College, Nilai, Malaysia 3 Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore s:

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 2CONTENT  Energy as the most basic of resources  Correlation of energy consumption & wealth  Exponential growth of population & energy consumption per capita-unsustainable  Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy source is developed  Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward  Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 3 The most basic resource of Mankind is energy  With energy food can be grown, manufactured, processed  With energy, materials can be mined, manufactured, processed  With energy, infrastructure can be built to provide transport, communication, health and education  With energy, Man can explore further afield, to the far corners of the Earth even to extra-terrestrial destinations  With energy, life can be more comfortable, more in conformity with Man as a civilised creature  Not surprisingly, there is close correlation between the wealth of a country and its energy consumption per capita.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 4 Close correlation between economic wealth and energy consumption per capita-2006.[2]

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 5 Trends in population growth and energy per capita consumption growth  AD 1500 World population (estimated) 450 million  AD billion [1]  End billion.  Past 100 years world population grew 4 times, whilst energy consumption grew 10 times.  Thus energy consumption grew faster than population growth;  in other words energy consumption per head grew more than 2 times.  This trend of per capita energy consumption growth will continue as the rest of the world attempts to catch up with the best standard of living in the world.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 6 Exponential Growth of Population and Energy Consumption  Past 100 years the doubling time of world population was 50 years  whilst the doubling time of energy consumption was 30 years.  Were this trend to continue, world population would reach 27 billion in another hundred years  whilst energy consumption would increase another 10 times.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 7 Exponential Growth is Unsustainable  Unsustainable; as the world is already near the critical point when supply of energy barely meets the demand.  Energy resources are limited and supply trends are estimated to peak in a few short decades from now.  This realisation underlies demographers’ projections that world population growth must slow down in the near future.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 8 Estimates of world energy production projected into the future in a scenario [3] Estimates of world energy production projected into the future in a scenario [3]

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 9 World population and projection

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 10 Current Debate misses the Point  The current debates on the unsustainability of population growth energy consumption trends and degradation of the environment are important in raising public awareness but but  Does not address the fundamental problem.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 11 We need one giant bold step  To safeguard Mankind’s unimpeded progress incremental moves are not enough  We need one giant bold step –  Development of a new limitless source of energy  Clean non-polluting energy which will not further aggravate the environment.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 12 Present Energy Resources not sufficient  All energy resources are being depleted by the exponential growth of population and of average world per capita consumption  New energy resources are not being developed fast enough  Renewables are too diffused: low energy collection density and poor net energy output; projection of renewables do not show the ability to sustain historical rates of human population growth combined with growth of per capita consumption.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 13 Incremental Steps Important but not Sufficient- New Source needed  What Mankind needs is not small increments extracted from energy conservationism or diffuse renewables  What Mankind needs is one Giant Step A new clean limitless energy source

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 14 Once-in-History Development  This is not a pipe dream  5 decades of research has gone into the processes of controlling nuclear fusion on earth  The stage is set for this energy revolution-this once in history development

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 15 STARS Nature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 16 STARS Nature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors And a dream lies on the river And a glamour veils the night Whilst above the white stars quiver With Fusion Burning-bright (adapted from Ciribiribin)

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 17 Tokamak-planned nuclear fusion reactor

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 18 Magnetic Yoke to induce Plasma Current Magnetic Yoke to induce Plasma Current Field Coils to Produce suitable Magnetic Field Configuration Field Coils to Produce suitable Magnetic Field Configuration

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 19 What is a Plasma ? What is a Plasma ? Four States of Matter SOLID LIQUID GAS PLASMA SOLID LIQUID GAS PLASMA Matter heated to high temperatures becomes a Plasma

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 20 Characteristics of Plasma State  Presence of electrons and ions  Electrically conducting  Interaction with electric & magnetic fields  Control of ions & electrons: applications  High energy densities/selective particle energies -Cold plasmas: several eV’s; (1eV~10 4 K) -Cold plasmas: several eV’s; (1eV~10 4 K) -Hot plasmas: keV’s ; (1keV~10 7 K) -Hot plasmas: keV’s ; (1keV~10 7 K)  Most of matter in Universe is in the Plasma State (e.g. the STARS)

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 21 Collisions in a Plasma The hotter the plasma is heated, the more energetic are the collisions

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 22 Nuclear Fusion If a Collision is sufficiently energetic, nuclear fusion will occur

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 23 Isotopes of hydrogen- Fuel of Fusion

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 24 Release of energy in Fusion 1 H H 3 2 He n MeV

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 25 Natural Fusion Reactors vs Fusion Experiments on Earth

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 26 JET (Joint European Torus) Project successfully completed 2000; reached Q=0.6, better than planned [Q is ratio of fusion energy generated/input energy to start and heat the plasma ]

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 27 Inside JET

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 28 Conversion of mass into Energy

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 29 Fusion Energy Equivalent 50 cups water  1 thimble heavy water, extracted from 50 cups of water

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 30 Summary of Conditions Technological Targets: Technological Targets:  T> 100 million K (10keV)  nt>10 21 m -3 -sec n=10 20 m -3, confined t=10s n=10 20 m -3, confined t=10s

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 31 Energy confinement time t scales as some functions of:  Plasma current I  Major Radius R  Minor radius ‘a’  Toroidal Magnetic Field B scaling law: t~I p a R b a g B l indices a,b,g,l all positive To achieve sufficient value of ntT requires: scaling of present generation of Tokamaks upwards in terms of: scaling of present generation of Tokamaks upwards in terms of: I R, ‘a’ and B I R, ‘a’ and B

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 32 Fusion Temperature attained Fusion confinement one step away

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 33 International Collaboration to develop Nuclear Fusion Energy-ITER  Geneva Superpower Summit:  Reagan (US) & Gorbachev (Soviet Union) agreed on project to develop new cleaner, sustainable source of energy- Fusion energy  ITER project was born  Initial signatories: former Soviet Union, USA, European Union (via EURATOM) & Japan  Joined by P R China & R Korea in 2003 & India 2005  ITER Agreement- signed in November 2006

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 34 ITER Construction has now started in Cadarache, France First plasma planned 2018 First plasma planned 2018 First D-T planned 2022

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 35 ITER A more detailed drawing

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 36 ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor)

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 37 Cooling and Heat Transfer

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 38 Q>10 and Beyond ITER : to demonstrate: possible to produce commercial energy from fusion. Q= ratio of fusion power to input power. Q ≥ 10 represents the scientific goal of ITER : Q ≥ 10 represents the scientific goal of ITER : to deliver 10x the power it consumes. From 50 MW input power to 500 MW of fusion power - first fusion experiment to produce net energy. From 50 MW input power to 500 MW of fusion power - first fusion experiment to produce net energy. Beyond ITER will be DEMO (early 2030’s), demonstration fusion power plant which will put fusion power into the grid as early as 2040 Beyond ITER will be DEMO (early 2030’s), demonstration fusion power plant which will put fusion power into the grid as early as 2040

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 39 Potential Next Step Fusion Burning Experiments

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 40 Unlimited clean energy supply  no need to restrict the growth of energy consumption, the growth of energy consumption, a better standard of living or a better standard of living or the growth of population. the growth of population.  Figure: energy consumption into the 22nd century.  Such unlimited growth (curve 2 of Figure) need not imply unbridled wasteful consumption.  The best practice of environmental conservatism could be incorporated into growth, so that  efficient and ‘green’ habits become part of the sustained culture of the human race.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 41

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 42 Figure: Scenario  Development of nuclear fusion energy is coming not a moment too soon.  The critical point when total available energy starts to decline is seen to be reached just before the middle of this century;  Thereafter the consumption curve has to drop (curve 1) & Man will have to cope with a decreasing supply  unless the increasing shortfall is made up by nuclear fusion energy (curve 2)

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 43

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 44 How fast can we expect the take- up of nuclear fusion energy?  Example: Use History of the uptake of nuclear fission energy for our scenario time-line.  The first commercial fission power station installed at Calder Hall, UK, 1956 with 50 MW.  By GW was installed.  By the late 70’s the installed nuclear fission power world-wide had reached 100 GW.  From 1 GW to 100 GW in some 18 years (10-fold increase evry 9 years)

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 45 Example: Growth of Fission Energy  70’s and 80’s, pressure-group litigation & rising costs of fission reactors due to regulatory changes & rising costs of fission reactors due to regulatory changes and falling fossil fuel prices made fission plants less attractive  The industry slowed down so that by the late 80’s installed fission power had only grown to 300 GW  and by 2005 only to 370 GW, supplying some:  15% of the world’s electricity consumption and  2.1% of total power consumption.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 46 Using the History of the Development of Nuclear Fission Power Plants as Example for our Scenario Time-line:  Scenario of our Figure assumes an installed 1 GW of commercial nuclear fusion power plant in 2050  Growing 10-fold every 9 years for 27 years to 1000 GW by 2077  and then slower growth (10-fold in 23 years) to GW by 2100;  thereafter tripling every 50 years. (present long-term average)  This is not unreasonable. By 2050 the world would know with a certainty the desperation of its energy position

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 47

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 48 The Scenario-with Fusion Energy  Just into the next century fusion energy will take up the slack and allow Mankind to continue its progress and growth (curve 2, available energy, with fusion energy).  The scenario shows that there will be several decades when the constraints of energy shortage will be severely felt. Note the flattening of the energy consumption from around 2040 to (curve 2, with fusion energy).  Such a period of stagnation in energy and corresponding stagnation in world population (curve 4 showing world population scenario, with fusion energy) seems unavoidable even with the development and rapid adoption of fusion energy.  Without fusion energy the scenario is as shown by the curve 1, depicting a severe downturn in the fortunes of Mankind with world population dropping below 5 billion (curve 3, world population scenario, without fusion energy).

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 49

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 50 Human Spirit Knows No Bound  The human spirit, its will to explore, its will to explore, to always seek new frontiers, to always seek new frontiers, the next Everest, the next Everest, deeper ocean floors, deeper ocean floors, the inner secrets of the atom: the inner secrets of the atom: Iconised into human consciousness by the deeds of Christopher Columbus, Edmund Hillary, Jacques Costeau, and Albert Einstein.

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 51  In the background of the ever-expanding universe  Mankind’s boundless spirit will be curbed by a limitation to growth  That was never meant to be  That should never be so

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 52 Mankind’s Giant Step- Dawning of the Fusion age Mankind’s Giant Step- Dawning of the Fusion age  Man should have an unlimited destiny  To reach for the moon, as he already has then to colonize it for its resources  Likewise to reach for the planets  Ultimately-the stars  Man’s spirit must and will remain indomitable

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 53 Conclusion In this paper we have discussed:  Energy as the most basic of resources  Correlation of energy consumption & wealth  Exponential growth of population & energy consumption per capita-unsustainable  Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy source is developed  Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward  Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear & Renewable Energy Resources 4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey Nuclear Fusion Energy- Mankind ’ s Giant Step Forward Sing Lee 1,2,3* & Sor Heoh Saw 1,2 1 Institute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia 2 INTI University College, Nilai, Malaysia 3 Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore s:

2 nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw 55 Thank You Thank You