Steps Towards Sustainable Mobility Automotive News World Congress Bill Reinert Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A. January 22, 2008

Global development of industry & technology in the 21st century Global development of industry & technology in the 21st century Accelerated consumption of fossil fuels 1. Energy & Fuel Diversification 3. Air Quality Population growth (esp. BRIC) Growing number of motor vehicles Growing number of motor vehicles 2. CO 2 reduction The “Big 4” – Issues facing the auto industry 4. Urban Congestion

Non-OPEC less FSU OPEC FSU Other liquids, biofuels, etc. EIA 2007 forecast (1.5% pa) 0.75% pa demand Spare capacity Third crisis, world peaks and OPEC plateaus Second crisis, Non-OPEC peaks First crisis, Non OPEC less FSU peaks Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells

World discoveries, 5 year average World production Used with permission by Dr. Peter Wells

Biodiesel Refining Soy Irrigation Ethanol Processing Corn Irrigation Hydrogen Electrolysis Hydrogen Reforming Uranium Processing Uranium Mining Oil Storage in Salt Cavern Oil Sands Oil Shale In-Situ Oil Shale Surface Retort Refining Enhanced Oil Recovery Petroleum Extraction Gas Storage in Salt Cavern Natural Gas Pipeline Operations Natural Gas Extraction & Processing Coal Gasification Coal Slurry Coal Liquefaction Coal Washing Coal Mining Energy Use and Water Requirements

Growth in Vehicle Ownership and Urban Congestion

Sustainable Mobility Products Environment in which the product “lives” Energy to power the product Partnerships Required to bring these products to market Sustainable Mobility – Overview A system approach

Life Cycle Assessment and Air Quality

kg CO 2 /kg LCA Example – CO 2 from Materials Production

Prius LCA and Air Quality

Solutions—Toyota’s Approach 1.Balance reduction of environmental impact with meeting Consumer Wants 2.Mass market appeal 3.Life Cycle Assessment

Prius Development

Types of Plug-ins There are many variations on the PHEV idea –Different battery sizes –Degree of ICE involvement –All Electric Range (AER) vs. Blended Strategy Battery Electric Vehicle (“BEV”) FCHV Electric (FC as EV range extender) Series PHEV (ICE as EV range extender) Prius PHEV FCHV Prius Parallel HV Engine Stop HV Traditional ICE 0% Electric 100% Electric

AER - Volt - Hy-Series - Prius Conversions Blended PHEV Types

Must understand how PHEVs fit in ○ ？ ×× ◎ ◎ FC ◎ ○ △ Fuel cost others ×○○ ○ Infrastructure × ◎ ◎ EV ◎ ○ ○ Single Fill Range △ △ Energy Diversity CO2 ○ ×→ △ ○ HV Diesel Gasoline ○ △～○△～○ × ～△ ○ ？ ×× ◎ ◎ ◎ ○ △ ×○○ ○ × ◎ ◎ Primary Issues ◎ ○ ○ △ △ ○ ×→ △ ○ ○ △～○△～○ × ～△ PHEV Emissions ◎ ◎ Powertrain Comparison

Plug-ins change the source of the emissions Unless the electricity used to charge the battery comes from a renewable source (e.g. wind, solar), plug-ins trade off tailpipe emissions for emissions at the power plant.

When electricity is generated from low-carbon sources, the CO 2 emissions of a PHV are lower than an HV CO 2 Reduction Well to Wheel CO2 Emissions （ Prius ＝１） Prius Plug-in U.S. Japan France China Prius Equivalent Vehicle ＬＡ＃４ 0.0 The advantage is big in France where nuclear power generation is common. There is no advantage in China, which mainly uses coal-fired power plants.

Comparison of PHEVs and HEV Recovery Transport Processing Transport Storage

PHEV Marketability Issues Currently, no commercial potential with such a large increase in battery load To provide 60km electric drive range would require about 12 times the battery capacity of the current Prius 現状プリウス バッテリ搭載イメージ Current Prius More batteries

Battery Life vs. Charge Cycle

Li Ion Battery Technology – Development and Testing Limited “real world” knowledge in vehicle application –Toyota has experience with mild hybrid Vitz –Limited number of conversions and specialty vehicles Must gain experience with Li-Ion technology in HEV before PHEV Key issues to be resolved –Safety –Durability (Life of vehicle) & reliability (≥NiMH) –Cost –End of life recycling Single Cell Real World Modules Full Packs Most “advanced” Li-Ion batteries Increasing 

PHEV Contribution to Energy Consumption Source: 1990 Nationwide personal Transportation survey (%) Cumulative percent of personal automobiles Cumulative percent of energy consumption for travel distance Approx. 20% Approx. 35% Average Daily Travel Distance Vehicle (miles) American Driving Patterns

Sustainable Mobility Products Environment in which the product “lives” Energy to power the product Partnerships Required to bring these products to market AB 1811 – Encompasses all aspects of Sustainable Mobility FCHVPHEV HVUrban Transp. System Univ.Govt.NGOsH2H2 Elec.? 1811 UCI LCA BA/SC AQMD Air Quality Modeling UCB ZEV-NET ’08 Proto H 2 Infra. ’10 PHEV

Conclusions Geopolitics surrounding remaining oil supplies will increase focus on energy security Climate change solutions will fight for “shelf space” with energy security and land use issues Decreased water supplies due to prolonged drought and contamination are a more near term threat than impacts from climate change Focus should be on most profound issues first Societal preparation for greatly increased energy costs is key for carbon reduction plans