Increasing awareness of global catastrophic risks, while searching for the governance that can decrease them. The risk of climate change A comparative perspective Dennis Pamlin, Senior Advisor

Responding proportionately to the risk Focus, Responsibility, Capacity to turn it into opportunities 2 Most probable – 1/200 Economic Unacceptable Risk of ruin 33% ?

The Global Challenges Foundation 12 different risks that threaten human civilisation 2 LA-602: Ignition of the Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs

The Global Challenges Foundation Very different levels of uncertainty – different focus to address them 2 Action Research Already in the risk zone

The Global Challenges Foundation Surprisingly high probability for existential risk 2

Responding proportionately to the risk Significant uncertainty – but potentially catastrophically consequences 2 2-4°C 4-7°C 0.1°C 7+°C Type 1 errors Type 2 errors Emissions (human) Climate sensitivity Climate effects Climate resilience

Responding proportionately to the risk The probabilities of global risks are not isolated from each other 2

The Global Challenges Foundation How do we communicate about the probability different risks? 2 20% IPCC = Unlikely Traditional risk approach = Very high 1% IPCC = Exceptionally unlikely Traditional risk approach = Average <0.002% Traditional risk approach = Very Low

The Global Challenges Foundation Four ideas to consider from a comparative global risks perspective 2 1.Research Encourage all research related to climate change to present the whole probability distribution and include a discussion about the tail-risk. => Do not stop research regarding impacts at 4°C and discuss earth system feedback. 2.Business/finance (and policy making) Develop strategies that allow the goal of global zero carbon society by 2050 become a main driver of innovation supported by accelerated uptake of strategies that include the financial risk of investments in high-carbon capital. 3.Policy making Establish a G20 global risk group with focus on low-probability/high impact aspects. 2, 4, 7+ °C For climate: Explore the consequences of two goals for and climate change. i.2 degree goal (dangerous risk) with 80% or 99% probability => Main focus on the direct effect of anthropic emissions ii.A 6 degree goal (deadly risk) with 99.98% or % probability => Focus on earth system feedback and surprises 4.All Establish revised probability language to describe the probability of different degrees of warming and associated consequences.

The Global Challenges Foundation Thank you, look forward to further discussions 2

The Global Challenges Foundation Selection: Peer reviewed literature from established sources 2