Crime risk factors & a combating model Policing operations & arrests Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats) Some business indicators of crime trends SA’s crime profile: o Overall national trends o Curious provincial trends Worrying new trend (kidnapping) Concluding remarks Presentation Outline

Relationships & motives relating to murder Perpetrators known to victims Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc Relatives as perpetrators 80%60%20% Relationships Motives/Conditions Social behaviour (E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc) Criminal behaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc) Group behaviour (E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc) Other (E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc) 65%16%7%12% Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%

Socio-economic conditions Attitudes to crime/violence Facilitating factors Weak regulatory systems High levels of crime & violence +++= Factors contributing to crime & violence Urbanisation & poor infra- structure Poor housing Poverty and unemploym. Dysfunctional families, schools, etc Low levels of education Absence of after school & childcare, recreational facilities, etc Early experiences of violence Culture of violence Ready rationali- sation of crimi- nality Poor socialisation Poor anger- and conflict management Status of women & children Alcohol Drugs Gangs Firearms Poor urban design Lack of safe public trans- port Xenophobia Weaknesses in CJS (training, resources, corruption, etc.) Poor law enforcement (incl. by-laws) Weaknesses in licensing systems Weaknesses in transport regu- lation (e.g. taxi’s) Weaknesses in school system

Combating (fighting) crime Policing Short-term interventions Policing Short-term interventions Private security Crime prevention Long-term interventions Crime prevention Long-term interventions Proactive Policing Visible policing Law enforce- ment Order main- tenance Proactive Policing Visible policing Law enforce- ment Order main- tenance Reactive Policing Crime investi- gation Law enforce- ment Order restora- tion Reactive Policing Crime investi- gation Law enforce- ment Order restora- tion Arrests Deterrence Socio-economic interventions (social crime prevention) Crime prevention through environ- mental design Deterrence through effective Criminal Justice System Socio-economic interventions (social crime prevention) Crime prevention through environ- mental design Deterrence through effective Criminal Justice System Other interv. (other depts & com. initia- tives) Other interv. (other depts & com. initia- tives)

Actions2007/082008/092009/102010/11% inc Roadblocks % Cordon & search % Stop & search % Vehicle patrols % Persons searched % Vehicles searched % Arrests2007/082008/092009/102010/11% Contact crimes % Aggravated robbery % Property & other serious crime % Crimes dep. on police action % Policing operations & arrests

Crime typeDetection rate (%) % cases court ready Conviction rate (%) Contact crimes (crimes against the person) 56,99%32,24% (new baseline) 23,78% Property-related crimes15,84%31,06% (new baseline) 24,50% Crimes dependent on police action98,53%28,41% (new baseline) 37,13% Murder26,57%28,95% (new baseline) 13,55% Aggravated robbery14,77%34,82% (new baseline) 11,40% House robbery18,99%-3,59% Business robbery18,83%-12,69% Detection & conviction rates (selected crimes)

Credibility of police crime statistics ?

Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies & Burglaries): 2009 & % decrease Armed Robberies (Incidents) ,6% Burglaries (Incidents) % Armed Robberies (Financial loss) R19,36mR10,03m- 48% Burglary (Financial loss) R19,97mR10,07- 49% Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)

House robbery Business robbery Vehicle hijacking Vehicle theft Business burglary House burglary 4 – 21% (average decr) 19 – 28% (average decr) 19 – 31% (average decr) – 17% (average decr) 5 – 9% (average decr) 4 – 12% (average decr) South African Insurance Association (SAIA) (Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)

SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded 1994/95 – 2010/11

Average national & provincial crime ratios Overall crime ratios (29 crimes) Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes) Illegal possession of firearms Drug related crimes Driving under the influence

National & provincial ratios: murder 2003/04 – 2010/11

National & provincial ratios: attempted murder 2003/04 – 2010/11 26%

Trio crimes (National trends) Actual figures

House robberyBusiness robbery National and provincial trends (Actual figures)

National & Prov crimes: Kidnapping ‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)

Concluding remarks Reductions in most crime levels in Gauteng and increases in most crime levels in the Western Cape cannot be explained only on the basis of what the police do or don’t do The police’s contribution to crime prevention and crime reduction is dependent on how well they perform their policing role The Western Cape in particular is experiencing crimes resulting from conditions over which the police have very little control We still know too little about the risk factors and driving forces behind crime in South Africa to fully understand how to fight it Much more in-depth and targeted research is required as a basis for an integrated and multi-agency approach that would guide not just the police, but everyone else

THANK YOU / DANKIE JOHAN BURGER Tel