Should We Legalize Marijuana? Prashant Foneska Ana Kostioukova Dominic Lo Prashant Foneska Ana Kostioukova Dominic Lo

Debate Over Legalization “After generations of defending capital punishment and marijuana possession laws on moral, ethical and religious grounds, after years of declaring that the death penalty acted as a deterrent against violent crime and that pot smokers were more dangerous to society than, say, alcohol consumers, all of a sudden thanks to our economic crisis more and more mainstream powerbrokers are considering dramatic changes to our criminal justice system.” - CBSNews, Feb 25, 2009 by Andrew Cohen

F $68 billion per year on corrections, 1/3 nonviolent drug crimes. F $150 billion on policing and courts, and 47.5% of all drug arrests are marijuana-related.  Potential for thousands of new jobs in agriculture, packaging, marketing and advertising. Marijuana in California F Currently only legal for medical use F Marijuana Control, Regulation, and Education Act (AB 390) could legalize Marijuana for people under 21 F Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion. F A 10% “pot tax” would yield $1.4 billion in California alone. F Currently only legal for medical use F Marijuana Control, Regulation, and Education Act (AB 390) could legalize Marijuana for people under 21 F Largest cash crop in California, with annual revenues approaching $14 billion. F A 10% “pot tax” would yield $1.4 billion in California alone.

Does a link between marijuana use and crime/unemployment exist? What is marijuana’s impact versus substitutes, alcohol and other illicit drugs? F Factors we considered: F Population Density F Median income F Education F Median age F Population age F Children in low income families F Marijuana use F Alcohol use F Other Illicit drug use

15 California Regions Included in the Analysis

Predictions Type of VariablesExpected Sign for Crime Expected Sign for Unemployment Population per square mile (2005 estimate) + + Median Family Income – – % High School Graduates – – Median Age – + % population age Children ( age 0-17) in low income families + + Marijuana + + Alcohol + + Other Illicit Drugs + +

Crime Regression CoefficientsStandard Errort Stat Intercept Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)* Median Family Income % of HS Graduates 2000 Census Median Age % Population Children 0-17 in Low Income Families Marijuana Use (Past Month) Alcohol Use (Past Month) Illicit Drug Use

Crime Findings F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people. F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to 9 less felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to 3-4 more felonies per 100,000 people F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to 120 more felonies per 100,000 people.

Crime Regression

Unemployment Regression CoefficientsStandard Errort Stat Intercept Pop./sq mi (2005 estimates)* E E Median Family Income E E % of HS Graduates 2000 Census Median Age % Population Children 0-17 in Low Income Families Marijuana Use (Past Month) Alcohol Use (Past Month) Illicit Drug Use

Unemployment Findings F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to.07% decrease in unemployment F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to.09% increase in unemployment F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to.97% increase in unemployment F 1% increase in Marijuana use leads to.07% decrease in unemployment F 1% increase in Alcohol use leads to.09% increase in unemployment F 1% increase in Other Illicit Drug use leads to.97% increase in unemployment

Unemployment Regression

Conclusion F According to our model marijuana does not increase serious crime or unemployment rates. F Alcohol and especially other illicit drugs (hard drugs) pose a much worse problem F Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates F Our findings show that marijuana use does not pose a threat to society and supports the case for the legalization of marijuana F According to our model marijuana does not increase serious crime or unemployment rates. F Alcohol and especially other illicit drugs (hard drugs) pose a much worse problem F Marijuana slightly decreases serious crime and unemployment rates F Our findings show that marijuana use does not pose a threat to society and supports the case for the legalization of marijuana

Descriptive Statistics Populati on % Unemp. Pop./sq mi Med. Inc % HS Grad Med. Age% LowMj. UseAlc. UseIllicit Use Mean Std. Error Median Mode#N/A Std. Dev S. Variance E E- 05 Kurtosis Skewness Range Minimum Maximum Sum Count58

Sources of Data Background: ml (Time Magazine, CNN News) ml h/main shtml h/main shtml (CBS News) (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health) Independent Variables: ( California State Association of Counties) (California Employment Development Department) (Children Now) Census) (Rand California Statistics) Background: ml (Time Magazine, CNN News) ml h/main shtml h/main shtml (CBS News) (Office of Applied Studies: National Study on Drug Use and Health) Independent Variables: ( California State Association of Counties) (California Employment Development Department) (Children Now) Census) (Rand California Statistics)