DR. R. K. PACHAURI Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute Director, Yale Climate & Energy Institute FUKUSHIMA, ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 28 April 2011, Malaysia

2 IPCC WARMING OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM IS UNEQUIVOCAL

3 IPCC PROJECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES ( relative to ) ( o C) Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21 st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)

4 IPCC OBSERVED CHANGES Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Global average temperature

5 IPCC INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE ABOUT Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

6 IPCC THE FREQUENCY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAS INCREASED OVER MOST LAND AREAS - Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

7 IPCC HEAT WAVES HAVE BECOME MORE FREQUENT OVER MOST LAND AREAS - Heat wave in Europe, 2003: deaths

8 IPCC MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS SINCE THE 1970s, PARTICULARLY IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS Photo credit: GoodPlanet

9 IPCC EXPECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

10 IPCC Coastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea level continues to rise, flooding the homes of millions of people living in low lying areas IMPACTS ON COASTAL AREAS In India, 1 m sea-level rise would include inundation of 5,763 km 2 (Gujarat, Maharashtra, West Bengal amongst vulnerable states) Significant losses of coastal ecosystems, affecting the aquaculture industry

11 IPCC Glacier melt projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches and to affect water resources within the next 2 to 3 decades Salinity of groundwater especially along the coast, due to increases in sea level and over-exploitation In India, gross per capita water availability will decline from 1820 m 3 /yr in 2001 to 1140 m 3 /yr in 2050 IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

12 IPCC IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY Water stress at low latitudes means losses of productivity for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture Possible yield reduction in agriculture: 50% by 2020 in some African countries 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia 30% by 2080 in Latin America Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in africa due to climate variability and change

13 IPCC THE NEED FOR MITIGATION THE NEED FOR MITIGATION

14 IPCC Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global mean temp. increase (ºC) Year CO 2 needs to peak Global sea level rise above pre- industrial from thermal expansion (m) 445 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 2.4 CHARACTERISTICS OF STABILIZATION SCENARIOS POST-TAR STABILIZATION SCENARIOS

15 IPCC GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation 2030 GDP Time Current Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP GROWTH

16 IPCC Common drivers lie behind mitigation policies and policies addressing economic development, poverty, health, employment, energy security, and local environmental protection Linking policies provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies reducing greenhouse gases mitigation costs  CO 2 mitigation potential for 2010 without net cost in India: between 13 and 23% of business as usual scenario CO-BENEFITS OF MITIGATION

17 IPCC FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES IN GLOBAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES IN GLOBAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

18 IPCC WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY SCENARIO SOURCE: WEO 2010

19 IPCC SHARES OF ENERGY SOURCES IN WORLD PRIMARY DEMAND BY SCENARIO SOURCE: WEO 2010

20 IPCC WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL IN THE NEW POLICIES SCENARIO SOURCE: WEO 2010

21 IPCC Nuclear Power and its role in future energy security NUCLEAR POWER AND ITS ROLE IN FUTURE ENERGY SECURITY

22 IPCC NUCLEAR POWER HAS BEEN FORMING AN INCREASING SHARE OF GLOBAL ENERGY MIX  Nuclear energy, already at about 7% of total primary energy, could make an increasing contribution to carbon-free electricity and heat in the future.  In 2005, 2626 TWh of electricity (16% of the world total) was generated by nuclear power, requiring about 65,500 t of natural uranium (WNA, 2006a).  Nuclear power capacity forecasts out to 2030 (IAEA, 2005c; WNA, 2005a; Maeda, 2005; Nuclear News, 2005) vary between 279 and GWe.  The worldwide operational performance has improved and the 2003–2005 average unit capacity factor was 83.3% (IAEA, 2006).

23 IPCC EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR POWER SYSTEMS LWR = light-water reactor; PWR = pressurized water reactor; BWR = boiling-water reactor; ABWR = advanced boiling-water reactor; CANDU = Canada Deuterium Uranium.

24 IPCC NUCLEAR ENERGY’S POTENTIAL FOR CO- BENEFITS IN MITIGATION POLICIES  Mitigation policies relating to energy efficiency of plants, fuel switching, renewable energy uptake and nuclear power, may have several objectives that imply a diverse range of co-benefits.  Reducing GHG emissions in the energy sector yields a global impact, but the co-benefits are typically experienced on a local or regional level.  Nuclear energy shares many of the same market co-benefits as renewables

25 IPCC MAJOR BARRIERS  Long-term fuel resource constraints without recycling  Economics  Safety  Waste management  Security  Proliferation  Adverse public opinion

26 IPCC A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.