1 IPCC Status and possible solutions to the climate change challenge: What's new since IPCC AR4? WMO UNEP R K Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI The Ny-Ålesund Symposium 8 th June 2009

2 IPCC scientific expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors +130 countries The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

3 IPCC “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

4 IPCC Observed changes Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Global average temperature

5 IPCC Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years - Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade

6 IPCC The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

7 IPCC The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher intensity have increased over the past 3 decades - Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: estimated deaths

8 IPCC Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas - Heat wave in Europe, 2003: deaths

9 IPCC “Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21 st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20 th century” - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

10 IPCC Carbon dioxide emissions Radiative Forcing (Wm ) Carbon Dioxide (ppm) Time (before 2005) -2 Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in

11 IPCC Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21 st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC) year Ranges for predicted surface warming

12 IPCC Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change relative to

13 IPCC Regions likely to be especially affected The Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of warming on natural systems and human communities Asian and African megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea level rise, storm surges and river flooding Small islands, which are highly vulnerable to projected sea level rise Africa, because of low adaptive capacity and projected climate change impacts

14 IPCC Negative impacts on Europe Inland and coastal flooding Health risks due to heat-waves Reduction of water availability and crop productivity in South Europe Species losses and reduced snow cover in mountains

15 IPCC In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline - The Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m up in the Andes, which used to be the world's highest ski run, has been reduced to just a few small pieces of ice Credit: Edson Ramirez

16 IPCC 20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in warming exceed °C Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean CO 2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation Climate change could lead to some abrupt or irreversible impacts

17 IPCC “Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the opportunities to achieve lower stabilisation levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts” - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

18 IPCC Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions lead to investments that lock in more emission intensive infrastructure and development pathways Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentrations were held constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade Mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- and longer-term benefits

19 IPCC Stabilisation scenarios 3.2 – – – – 2.4 Global mean temp. increase (ºC) 2020 – – – – – – – – 490 Year CO 2 needs to peak Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq)

20 IPCC Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030 Stabilisation levels (ppm CO2-eq) Range of GDP reduction (%) Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates (percentage pts) < 3< – 2.5< – 1.2< 0.06 Costs of mitigation in 2030

21 IPCC “There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could […] reduce emissions below current levels” - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

22 IPCC All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion

23 IPCC Efficient lighting; efficient appliances; improved insulation; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances Efficiency; fuel switching; renewables; combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO 2 capture & storage Energy Supply Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems Buildings Key technologies currently available

24 IPCC Integrated design of commercial buildings including intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; integrated PV CCS for gas, biomass & coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power & renewable energy, including tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV Energy Supply Transport 2 nd generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric & hybrid vehicles with more powerful & reliable batteries Buildings Technologies expected to be commercialised before 2030

25 IPCC Regulations and standards Appropriate energy infrastructure investments Research, development and demonstration Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices Effective carbon-price signal Taxes and charges Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns

26 IPCC Beyond the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

27 IPCC Deeper understanding and quantification of the processes governing the climate system have progressed rapidly since the IPCC First Assessment Report (1990)  The main scientific conclusions from the sequence of IPCC assessments have been refined but not significantly redirected  Recently observed climate changes remain coherent with the AR4 conclusions, although longer-term observation is required to draw significant conclusions on climate evolutions Evolution of the climate science

28 IPCC Research-related priorities Impacts under different assumptions about future development pathways Damages avoided by different levels of emissions reduction Expected impacts at the regional and local level Causes and thresholds of possible abrupt climate changes Links between climate change and other policies Costs of impacts of, and responses to, climate change

29 IPCC Coming IPCC reports 5 th Assessment Report (to be finalised in 2014)  Revised set of scenarios based on possible evolutions of GHG emission trajectories  Deeper coverage of the socio-economic and humanitarian dimensions of climate change Technical Papers Special Reports  Renewable energy: 2010  Extreme events and disasters: 2011

30 IPCC Democracy must in essence therefore, mean the art and science of mobilizing the entire physical, economics and spiritual resources of all the various sections of the people in the service of the common good for all.